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000
FXUS64 KCRP 250002
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
702 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...ANTICIPATE THAT ISOLD CONVECTION THIS EVENING
GENERALLY EAST OF U.S. ROUTE 281 WL DISSIPATE EARLY TONIGHT. A
TRANSITION TO PREDOMINATE MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. ANTICIPATE THAT
FOG WILL BE LIMITED OVERNIGHT OWING TO SUFFICIENT SFC WIND. EXPECT
AT LEAST ISOLD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP AGAIN BY MID MORNING
SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN BEFORE ENDING FROM
WEST TO EAST. EXPECT SFC WIND TO INCREASE TO MODERATE/BREEZY BY
LATE AFTN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...THIS MORNINGS SOUTHERN MCV ASSISTED IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. FOLLOWING
CLOSE TO THE HIGH RES 18Z HRRR FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WHICH WAS THE ONLY MODEL THAT SEEMED TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. THE LINE WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO THE
INLAND COASTAL BEND OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS...THEN POSSIBLY WEAKEN
AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHES OUT AHEAD OF IT (MAY BE EVIDENCE OF
THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALREADY DEVELOPING. THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
THE EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND COASTAL BEND IS UNSTABLE...WITH
MLCAPE 2000-2500 J/KG AND UNCAPPED. SHEAR IS RELATIVELY
WEAK...NEVERTHELESS A FEW STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY END AROUND OR AFTER SUNSET.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT SOUTH TEXAS ON SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. MODELS ALL
INDICATE ENERGY WITH THESE SHORTWAVES...BUT ARE A BIT DIFFERENT IN
THE FINER DETAILS. STILL THINK THE NEXT WAVE TOMORROW COULD BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. HAVE SPREAD THE SLIGHT
CHANCE AREA FARTHER EAST GIVEN INCREASED MOISTURE FARTHER EAST THAN
PREVIOUS MODELS HAD INDICATED. HAVE A LINGERING 10 POP WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE WORDING FOR SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE WEAKER THAN THE OTHERS
PASSES BY...BUT GUIDANCE STILL INDICATING SOME QPF ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS STRONGER ACROSS
THE AREA WHILE 850 THETA E RIDGE SHIFTS WESTWARD. THIS WILL DRY
THINGS OUT A BIT IN THE MID LEVELS AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
INCREASE. INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH RESULTING FROM THE
STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL ALSO INCREASE WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
BY MID-WEEK.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN US BY MID
WEEK AS WELL.  MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE
AMPLITUDE OF THIS TROUGH. SOME MODELS INDICATE A PRETTY DEEP TROUGH
DIGGING AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN MEXICO. OTHER MODELS SHOW A MUCH
WEAKER TROUGH. NOT CONFIDENT YET IN CHANCES FOR PRECIP
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...BUT WILL LEAVE 20 POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  89  75  90  75  /  30  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          74  88  72  90  71  /  30  20  10  10  10
LAREDO            75  92  74  96  74  /  30  20  10  10  10
ALICE             75  89  73  92  73  /  30  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          75  87  75  88  76  /  30  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           74  91  72  95  72  /  30  30  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        76  90  75  91  74  /  30  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       75  86  75  87  76  /  30  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION