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000
FXUS64 KCRP 150855
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
355 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...CONTINUING TO WATCH
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. SO FAR TWO MAIN AREAS OF
PRECIP...ONE STAYING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE OTHER
LARGELY STAYING SOUTH...BOTH ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. THE ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH IS STARTING TO INCLUDE A
NORTHWARD DRIFT ALONG WITH ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSIONS. CLOUD TOPS
ARE ALSO COOLING ACROSS ZAPATA AND JIM HOGG COUNTIES WITH SOME
HIGHER REFLECTIVITY ACTIVITY DEVELOPING. THIS SHOULD PUSH INTO THE
BRUSH COUNTRY AND COASTAL BEND AS THE MORNING GOES ON. STARTING TO
GET SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTO THE COASTAL BEND AT THIS
TIME.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE THROUGH THE
AREA THIS MORNING AS WELL. MOST OF GOES SOUNDER PWAT PRODUCT THIS
MORNING IS CONTAMINATED BY CLOUDS...BUT A FEW PIXELS SHOW UP
INDICATING NEARLY 2 INCH PWATS IN THE AREA. 00HR RUC PWAT ANALYSIS
SHOW AS MUCH AS 2.2 INCHES ALONG THE DEEP SOUTH TEXAS COAST. RUC
FORECAST WOULD SUGGEST AROUND 2 INCH VALUES IN TO OUR AREA IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THESE VALUES WOULD BE AROUND THE +2 STANDARD
DEVIATION VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. RUC MAY BE A LITTLE HIGH
WITH THESE NUMBERS THOUGH. GFS AND NAM BOTH ARE JUST ABOVE 1.9
INCHES.

HAVE NOT CHANGED POP FORECAST MUCH FOR TODAY...KEEPING A 40 TO 50
POP FOR EASTERN AREAS DURING THE DAY. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PUSHES
OUT OF THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON ENDING PRECIP CHANCES. HAVE
JUST A LINGERING 20 POP IN THE EAST AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. MID
LEVEL WAA WILL THEN INCREASE A CAPPING INVERSION OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES WARM A BIT TODAY IN THE WEST...BUT PRECIP IN THE EAST
COULD KEEP THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND COASTAL BEND AT OR BELOW
YESTERDAYS TEMPS. ADDITIONALLY...A THICK CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO
PERSIST OVER THE AREA WITH STRATUS MAYBE JUST A COUPLE THOUSAND
FEET UP ALL DAY. BY THURSDAY CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR WEST TO EAST
AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS. LAREDO COULD BE NEAR 100.


&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...STRONG CAP IS IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. PWATS
DO INCREASE BACK UP THE RIO GRANDE OVER THE WEEKEND TO NEAR 1.5
INCHES. MODELS INDICATE THE TAIL END OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT
OF MEXICO AND ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
CONVECTION MAY FIRE ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND MOVE TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE SATURDAY EVENING...BUT STRENGTH OF
CAP OVER THE REGION MAKES CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION REACHING WESTERN
CWA LOW...AND THEREFORE NO WX CURRENTLY MENTIONED. OTHERWISE LONG
TERM WILL FEATURE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WITH
PERIODS OF BREEZY CONDITIONS. 12Z ECMWF HAD BEEN INDICATE WEAK FRONT
APPROACHING NORTHERN CWA LATE TUESDAY (DAY 7) BUT HAS BACKED OFF TO
THE NORTH IN THE 00Z RUN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    85  73  87  74  90  /  50  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          83  72  85  74  88  /  50  20  10  10  10
LAREDO            93  73 100  73  99  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             87  70  91  73  91  /  40  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          83  74  83  74  84  /  50  20  10  10  10
COTULLA           91  71  97  73  98  /  30  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        87  72  89  74  91  /  40  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       80  74  84  73  84  /  50  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...SHORT TERM
JR/76...LONG TERM