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000
FXUS64 KCRP 142340
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
640 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS S TX WILL LOWER TO
MVFR LATER THIS EVENING AS CIGS DVLP/DROP BELOW 3KFT. A FEW
-SHRA`S CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE W OF ALI WILL
LIKELY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHRA`S/TSRA`S
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO WED AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TRACKS
ACROSS THE AREA FROM W TO E. THEREFORE HAVE A MENTION OF VCSH WITH
A TEMPO TSRA LATE TONIGHT BEGINNING ACROSS THE LRD THEN SHIFTING E
WITH TIME TO ALI/CRP. VCT IS EXPECTED TO SEE CONVECTION LATER WED
MORNING AND EXTENDING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MVS
TO THE NE WITH GENERAL IMPROVEMENT DVLPG FROM W TO NE THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...LAPS ANALYSES
REVEAL THAT CIN VALUES HAVE BECOME LOW AND CAPE VALUES AOA 1000
J/KG. THUS ANTICIPATE LOCALLY-GENERATED CONVECTION LATER THIS
AFTN/EVENING. EXPECT DYNAMICS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE DISTURBANCE TO THE W/SW ENTERS THE REGION. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING UPPER DYNAMICS WL INCREASE THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THE
GFS 700-300MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...THE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
WL OCCUR DRG THE 06-12Z PERIOD THEN DECREASE SLOWLY FROM WEST TO
EAST AFTERWARD. 12Z CYCLE OF THE DETERMINISTIC TEXAS TECH ARW...
AND THE LOCAL WRF-ARW...SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION WL ENTER THE CWA
FROM THE WEST AFTER 06Z WED. REGARDING SEVERITY...THE NAM
DETERMINISTIC PROGS BRN VALUES IN THE SUPERCELLULAR RANGE OVER THE
CWA/MSA DRG THE 09-15Z WED PERIOD. HWR THE NAM/GFS PROG CAPE
VALUES TO REMAIN BELOW 2000 J/KG DRG THE 06-12Z WED PERIOD. THE
GFS PROGS CIN VALUES ABOVE 100 J/KG DRG THE 06-12Z WED PERIOD
WHILE THE NAM PROGS LOWER VALUES. UNCERTAIN REGARDING THE SEVERITY
OF THE STORMS OVERNIGHT AND THUS CONCUR WITH THE NCEP/SPC CURRENT
ASSESSMENT OF THE SLGT RISK FOR SVR REGION JUST NW OF THE CWA FOR
NOW. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST/INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE. TIMING/PSN OF POPS REFLECT SUCH.

MARINE...NAM DETERMINISTIC SUGGEST SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. YET WL FCST ONLY SCEC AS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE RECENT PATTERN OF SLOWER WIND THAN NAM OUTPUT VERSUS
THE LIKELIHOOD OF FASTER WIND ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THE COASTAL BEND WILL SETTLE INTO A QUIET
PERIOD WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE
REGION. MODELS SWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE ROCKIES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT THE ONLY EFFECT ON SOUTH TEXAS WILL BE A
BRIEF INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
NEXT WEEK LOOKS VERY QUIET OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS AS ALL THE
ACTIVITY REMAINS MUCH FURTHER NORTH.

RISING HEIGHTS ALONG WITH THE DRIER AIR COMING IN WILL ACT TO RAISE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS...WITH THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND
NORTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS FLIRTING WITH HUNDRED DEGREE READINGS
MOST OF NEXT WEEK AND MOST OTHER COASTAL BEND LOCATIONS SEEING UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    73  80  72  86  73  /  40  50  20  10  10
VICTORIA          69  81  69  83  71  /  30  60  20  10  10
LAREDO            72  92  73 100  74  /  50  20  10  10  10
ALICE             71  85  71  89  72  /  40  50  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          72  78  71  80  72  /  30  50  20  10  10
COTULLA           70  88  70  96  71  /  50  30  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        72  83  72  88  73  /  40  50  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       72  78  72  80  72  /  40  50  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION