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000
FXUS64 KCRP 200001 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
701 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...BAND OF CLOUDS/MVFR CEILINGS...OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE...WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INLAND OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW OF
30-35 KNOTS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH CEILINGS REMAINING FROM
1200-1500 FEET. PLACED A TEMPO GROUP AROUND DAYBREAK FOR THE
ALI/VCT/CRP TAFS FOR MVFR VSBYS IN FOG/HAZE. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO LIFT BY LATE MORNING AND BREAK OUT BY THE AFTERNOON WITH VFR
CONDS PREVALENT ALONG WITH STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...A QUIET AND
PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM WITH UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE REGION. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH A STRONG SOUTHEAST LLJ
DEVELOPING. SPC DOES HAVE THE FAR WESTERN AREAS UNDER GENERAL
THUNDER...HOWEVER WITH A STRONG CAP IN PLACE WITH NO REAL STRONG
FORCING THIS FAR SOUTH...AM NOT EXPECTING DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING. THE DRY LINE AS WELL AS THE SPLIT FLOW IN THE JET SHOULD
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. MUGGY CONDITIONS
TONIGHT AS WELL AS MONDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE MID 70S. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING BY MID MORNING. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY BY LATE MORNING MONDAY.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...OTHER THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT (MAYBE NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY)...WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE MOST PART REMAINS WARM AND
QUIET. CONCERNING CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY...WILL HOLD OFF ON IT FOR
OUR NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHWESTERN AREAS BUT COULD SEE SOMETHING LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON THERE IF IT GETS WARMER THAN EXPECTED THERE AND ENOUGH
ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH IMPACTS THE AREA (MOST OF THE ENERGY IS
TO THE NORTH...AND THERE IS STILL SOME CAP ALBEIT WEAKEST THERE).
WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE AREAS AWAY FROM
THE COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE TO KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST COASTAL AREAS WHERE CAP IS STRONGEST AND DRIER THETA-E AIR
RESIDES. FOR WEDNESDAY...ENERGY FROM UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST...AND
THINK RAIN CHANCES OVER THE AREA ARE QUITE LOW...SO JUST FOR
CONSISTENCY SAKE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS VICTORIA AREA BUT KEEP
RAIN OUT ELSEWHERE (AND DIMINISH AREAL COVERAGE OF 20 POPS). UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN AFTER THAT...AND AIRMASS BEGINS TO SLOWLY
DRY OUT...SO NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...WILL MAINTAIN A WARM AND
MUGGY FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO DECREASE
VALUES OF OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT AS WINDS DIMINISH AND ATMOSPHERE
DRIES OUT. 700MB AND 850MB TEMPERATURES ALSO DIMINISH SOME AFTER MID
WEEK...SO DAYTIME HIGHS APPEAR TO BE A BIT LOWER AS WELL. STILL...
OVERALL AM EXPECTING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES AND WILL GENERALLY GO ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE MOST
LOCATIONS ON THESE TEMPERATURE ELEMENTS.

MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHERN BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW
FOR STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING
BELOW CRITERIA THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION WITH ONSHORE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  95  77  91  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          75  92  75  88  74  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            77 102  78  99  76  /  10  10  10  10  20
ALICE             75  96  76  93  74  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          77  86  77  86  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           74  99  75  98  74  /  10  10  10  10  30
KINGSVILLE        77  92  77  92  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       76  86  76  85  75  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.


&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION