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000
FXUS64 KCRP 121145 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
645 AM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

.DISCUSSION...SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...PERSISTENT SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES SOUTH OF
KVCT TAF AREA WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...SO
HAVE TEMPO -RA WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CIGS IN THE TERMINALS. THINK
THUNDER TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT A MENTION. BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE IN
THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON SO COULD HAVE SOME SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON (MOST MODELS SHOWING SOMETHING IN THE SOUTHERN
AREAS)...HAVE HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 FOR SOUTHERN TAFS (AGAIN NO
THUNDER). AS IN 06Z DISCUSSION AM EXPECTING CIGS TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER DURING THE DAY
AND BECOME NE/E BY EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
GENERALLY VARIABLE BY 08Z ALL TERMINALS (MAYBE KLRD REMAINS MORE
LIGHT EAST). THIS COULD BE SOME MVFR FOG PROBLEMS BUT AT THIS TIME
WILL ONLY INCLUDE MVFR BR AT KALI WHERE MOST PRONE TO OCCUR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MAIN ISSUE IS POPS FOR TODAY
AND THIS EVENING. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH ENERGY/FORCING AND
INSTABILITY ALOFT TO GENERATE SOME RAIN/SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...WITH AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE. ALTHOUGH TREND HAS
BEEN FOR ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN IN INTENSITY (ALTHOUGH IT`S NOT THAT
STRONG)...AREAL COVERAGE IS STILL THERE. MOST OF IT IS SPRINKLES.
VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING UPPER LOW APPARENTLY RETROGRADING VERY
SLOWLY WESTWARD...BUT IR IS STILL SHOWING SOME ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS
FARTHER WEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DAYTIME HEATING WILL
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE...AND THE AFTERNOON WILL BE A BATTLE
BETWEEN DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND INCREASED SURFACE INSTABILITY.
BOTTOM LINE...WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN AREAS...LESS OR NO MENTION FATHER NORTH AND EAST. AT THIS
TIME...EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME REMNANT CONVECTION NEAR
THE RIO GRANDE THIS EVENING...RAIN SHOULD BE OVER WITH BEFORE
MIDNIGHT AND NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AS FORCING FROM
UPPER LOW IS TOO FAR TO THE WEST. EXPECTING A LOT OF CLOUDS TODAY
ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS BUT SOME OF THE MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER
SHOULD MOVE WEST TODAY AND SHOULD GET ENOUGH HEATING TO BRING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
OF A COOL-DOWN TONIGHT...AND AREA WILL GENERALLY SEE TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S...MAY SOME UPPER 50S IN VICTORIA WHERE THERE WILL BE
LESS CLOUDS. A BIT WARMER ON MONDAY WITH MORE SUN. WINDS BEGIN TO
BECOME ONSHORE (EAST) ON MONDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THAT IS ABOUT IT.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...NO ISSUES ON THE MARINE SIDE.
WINDS WILL BE UP A BIT FROM THE NORTHEAST TODAY AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. WINDS SHOULD MAINLY BE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. MAY SEE SOME
SHOWERS NEARSHORE BUT OVERALL SHOULD BE QUIET. WINDS BECOME MORE
EAST ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...WEAK RIDGING AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL
CONTINUE A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASING. THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST OVER WESTERN TEXAS TUESDAY...WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW OVER
SOUTH TEXAS. LITTLE TO NO CAP OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH DECENT
CAPE AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...SHIFTING
WESTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER A DRYING AIRMASS WILL LOWER
CHANCES BY THE AFTERNOON. RATHER DRY AIRMASS TO LINGER THROUGH THE
END OF THE EXTENDED...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE NEAR
THE COAST MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED NOCTURNAL SHOWERS THURSDAY/FRIDAY
MORNINGS. GENERAL WARMING TREND IN THE LONG TERM WITH 1000-500MB
THICKNESS INCREASING AS RIDGING TAKES PLACE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    86  66  87  67  85  /  20  10  10  20  40
VICTORIA          83  59  85  63  83  /  10  10  10  10  40
LAREDO            87  67  89  69  90  /  30  20  10  20  20
ALICE             86  64  88  66  85  /  30  10  10  10  40
ROCKPORT          84  65  83  69  81  /  20  10  10  20  30
COTULLA           85  63  89  65  87  /  10  10  10  20  20
KINGSVILLE        85  63  87  68  86  /  30  10  10  20  40
NAVY CORPUS       80  69  81  70  81  /  20  10  10  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION