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000
FXUS64 KCRP 172313
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
613 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.DISCUSSION...A PERSISTENT PATTERN IN THE TAF FORECAST TONIGHT.
EXPECT A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR POSSIBLE FOR ALL SITES IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WINDS DECREASE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS WE LOSE
DAYTIME HEATING...THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST....AND HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DECREASING OVER THE NEXT DAY. EXPECT QUIET CONDITIONS TO
CARRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. AGAIN WENT SLIGHTLY ON THE WARMER SIDE
OF GUIDANCE BASED ON RECENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 90S JUST ALONG THE COAST...MID 90S INLAND...AND LOWER 100S
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 TO 109 CAN
BE EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL BEND AND COASTAL PLAINS. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
REMAIN NEAR MODERATE LEVELS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE AND COASTAL
WATERS...AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
OVER LAND...WINDS WILL DECREASE TO A WEAK TO MODERATE FLOW...MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...BEFORE PICKING BACK UP TO BREEZY CONDITIONS
AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS WILL BE WEST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHILE A
WEAK SHEAR AXIS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND WESTERN GULF. SLIGHT
H85-H7 COOLING OCCURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE STRAY OR ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS OVER THE GULF
WATERS EACH MORNING...AND ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. BUT
MARGINAL MOISTURE VALUES WILL PRECLUDE MENTIONING IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORMED THIS MORNING OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA OFF THE COAST OF BELIZE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST...INLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT...POSSIBLY EMERGING
INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE TUESDAY. WITH THE RIDGE POSITIONED TO
THE NORTH...THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE STEERED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...INTO MEXICO. IF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
DOES EMERGE BACK INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND STRENGTHENS...THEN
SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH IT COULD IMPACT MARINE AREAS AND AREA BEACHES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RESULTING IN AN INCREASED RIP CURRENT
RISK. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE INDICATING HIGHER MOISTURE FROM THE
NORTHERN-CENTRAL GULF WORKING INTO THE COASTAL BEND SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN THE FORECAST FOR
THESE DAYS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. OTHERWISE...WARM CONDITIONS WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN SOME AREAS...MAINLY SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND AND
EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY...IN THE 105 TO 109 RANGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    79  97  79  97  80  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          75  96  75  95  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            79 102  79 101  78  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             76  98  76  98  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          81  92  81  92  81  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           75  98  75  99  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        77  96  78  98  79  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       80  92  81  91  81  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION