000
FXUS64 KCRP 190248 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
948 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.DISCUSSION...REMOVED THUNDER...AND WAS TEMPTED TO REMOVE RAIN ALL
TOGETHER (EXCEPT FOR GULFMEX)...CONSIDERING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS
SHOWING DRIER AIR MOVING INTO AREA AND IMPACTS OF DISTURBANCE
EXITING. HOWEVER...HAVE SEEN A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS (VERY WEAK) FROM
TIME TO TIME (OUT OF AREA THOUGH) SO DECIDED TO KEEP A MENTION OF
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST OVERALL LOOKS FINE. WILL KEEP
MORNING RAIN (LESS THAN 20 PERCENT CHANCE) IN FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND WILL LET MID SHIFT DECIDE WHETHER TO KEEP IT OR NOT.
NO OTHER REAL CHANGES NEEDED...SO DID NOT MESS WITH TOO MUCH AS
EVEN TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE PANNING OUT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...QUIET EVENING EXPECTED AT TAF SITES. THINKING A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST IS GOOD ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR
SKY CONDITIONS. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A TEMPORARILY MVFR
CONDITION FOR ANY SITE...BUT THE CHANCE SEEMS LOW CONSIDERING WHAT
WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS AND SIMILAR OVERALL CONDITIONS IN
PLACE TONIGHT. QUESTIONABLE WIND FORECAST FOR LRD SITE. UNSURE IF
SEA BREEZE WILL MAKE IT THERE THIS EVENING TO INCREASE WINDS. SOME
GUIDANCE KEEPS WINDS AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE OTHER
GUIDANCE BRINGS 20KT GUSTS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE NON-GUSTY
SOLUTION...BUT MAY HAVE TO AMEND OVERNIGHT IF SEA BREEZE
APPROACHES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TO THE WEST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE SKIRTING AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF RIDGE THIS EVENING.
MOISTURE HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AND COASTAL
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE THE TAIL END OF THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SKIRTING THE NORTHEAST ZONES BEFORE MOVING ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE BETTER FOR CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH OF THE
REGION...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME VERY ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT. WENT WITH LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
COASTAL...NORTHEAST...AND MARINE ZONES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH TRENDS
FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH 105 TO 109
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND. A WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION. ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES WINDS
WILL REMAIN AT MODERATE LEVELS OVERNIGHT...AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
NEEDED TO THE EXTENDED PERIODS THIS AFTERNOON. LONG TERM WILL BEGIN
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS TEXAS. REMNANTS AND DEEPER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TD 2 WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED VERY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 100S OUT WEST TO
MIDDLE 90S IN THE NORTHEAST WILL BE COMMON. IN ADDITION...HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 105 AND 109 DEGREES...WITH AN
INCREASED THREAT OF HEAT RELATED STRESS POSSIBLE. LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ISOLATED SEA BREEZE CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP SO WILL RETAIN LOW END POPS FOR THE LATER PERIODS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    79  97  80  97  80  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          75  96  76  96  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            79 102  78 102  79  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             77  97  76  97  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          80  91  81  91  81  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           75  98  75  98  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        78  98  78  98  79  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       80  88  80  90  81  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM