000
FXUS64 KCRP 201740 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1240 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...MORNING MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST FROM CRP-VCT WILL
DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...WITH VFR FOR ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30KTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z (DEVELOPING AT LRD BTWN 00Z-06Z)
BEFORE DECOUPLING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM CRP-ALI.
MVFR CIGS WILL REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST...MOVING INLAND REACHING
CRP-VCT AROUND 01Z...THEN ALI AROUND 04Z. VFR CONDITIONS AT LRD
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED HOURLY TEMP GRIDS TO REFLECT TRENDS. BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND AREA ROUGHLY SOUTH OF PORT
ARANSAS. THE 12Z SOUNDING DOES NOT SHOW AS HIGH AS WINDS JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE LIKE THE PREVIOUS MORNINGS...BUT SHOULD STILL
SEE SUSTAINED WINDS 20-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OTHERWISE...NO
OTHER CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION TODAY. WINDS WILL BE
BORDERLINE SCEC AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE BAYS
AND NEARSHORE WATERS SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS. WILL MAINTAIN SCEC
HEADLINES BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS IF WINDS TREND STRONGER.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAF`S.

AVIATION...MVFR CIGS/STRATUS WILL IMPROVE BECOMING VFR THROUGH
LATE MORNING. HAZY CONDITIONS MAY LOWER VSBYS TO AROUND 5SM THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
TODAY. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REDVLP TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A PERSISTENT WX PATTERN OF
VERY WARM TEMPS AND BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH TUE. A TROF AXIS IS PROGD TO ROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER LOW
LOCATED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH TUE. THE TROF AXIS IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS W TX TUE MORNING AND BE DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL AND S
TX BY TUE AFTERNOON. THE APPROACHING TROF WILL MAINTAIN THE STRONG
LLJ ACROSS S TX WHICH IN TURN WILL MIX DURING EACH DAY LEADING TO
THE BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. THIS WILL ALSO MIX OUT THE OVERNIGHT
STRATUS DECK BY MID TO LATE THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TUE MORNING. HAZY
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED DUE TO THE ONGOING FIRES IN THE
YUCATAN. HOWEVER...VSBY`S SHOULD BE GENERALLY ABV 7SM DURING THE DAY
AND AOA 5SM DURING THE LATE NIGHT HRS. AS FOR PRECIP CHCS...AM NOT
EXPECTING ANY RAIN TODAY. AS THE TROF APPROACHES THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH TUE...THE CHC INCREASES SOMEWHAT...BUT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
LIMITED ALONG WITH A STRONG CAP. THEREFORE KEPT SILENT 10 POPS FOR
NOW FOR TONIGHT AND TUE...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT CONVECTION
MAKING INTO THE NW CWA BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON...BUT FEEL CHCS ARE
BETTER TUE NIGHT.

MARINE...A MODERATE TO AT TIMES STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST
TODAY THROUGH TUE IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE U.S. AND
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS W TX AND THE TX PANHANDLE. WINDS MAY APPROACH
ADVISORY LEVELS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE
WATERS BETWEEN BAFFIN BAY AND PORT ARANSAS. FOR NOW KEPT WINDS AT
CAUTION BUT LATER UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED IF WINDS REACH ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR 2 HRS OR MORE. HAZY CONDITIONS DUE FIRES IN THE YUCATAN
MAY REDUCE VSBYS TO AROUND 4-5SM.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN
IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING NORTH OF THE AREA AT THE END
OF THE SHORT TERM DUE TO FRONT OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. MOISTURE BEGINS
TO INCREASE OVER SOUTH TEXAS WITH CAP BECOMING WEAKER THAN IT HAS
BEEN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. FRONT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA BUT IF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DOES DEVELOP...THEN THUNDERSTORMS MAY
MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW END POPS FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. LINGERING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
EXIST WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER THE NORTHEAST AREAS AS TAIL END OF
CONVECTION MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT BACK
INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED WARM/HOT TEMPERATURES WITH
LOW RAIN CHANCES. LITTLE VARIATION IN AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL OCCUR
WITH UPPER 90S OUT WEST TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND
VICTORIA CROSSROADS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    93  77  90  75  92  /  10  10  10  20  10
VICTORIA          90  75  90  74  89  /  10  10  10  20  20
LAREDO           102  77 100  76  99  /  10  10  10  20  10
ALICE             95  75  93  74  94  /  10  10  10  20  10
ROCKPORT          83  77  84  76  86  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          100  75  99  73  97  /  10  10  10  30  10
KINGSVILLE        92  77  90  75  92  /  10  10  10  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       84  76  84  75  84  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION