000
FXUS64 KCRP 222012
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
312 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...THE WEAK COLD FRONT
HAS LIFTED BACK TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA AND WILL CONTINUE TO WASH
OUT. WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM ALONG WITH SLIGHT DRYING. DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SLIGHTLY MORE
WIND TOMORROW. WEAKER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND MIXING TODAY HAS
RESULTED IN MORE PREVALENT HAZE AND SMOKE OVER THE REGION...
ORIGINATING FROM THE AGRICULTURAL BURNS IN MEXICO. SATELLITE
IMAGERY STILL CONFIRMS A DEEP FETCH OF SMOKE AND HAZE BACK INTO
THE BAY OF CAMPEHCE...SO PERIODS OF HAZY CONDITIONS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND LOOKS
DRY BUT HUMID AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTH TEXAS. MODELS TRAP
MOISTURE UNDER A LARGE CAP FRIDAY/SATURDAY...SO HAVE BACKED OFF
TEMPERATURES A BIT IN ANTICIPATION OF MORE HUMIDITY AND POTENTIAL
CLOUD COVER. MODELS BACK OFF ON MOISTURE POOLING SUN/MON AS RIDGE
REBUILDS SOMEWHAT IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS THEN DISAGREE ON THE DISPOSITION OF THIS
DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND OUT ONTO THE PLAINS.
GFS IS MUCH DEEPER AND ACTUALLY PRODUCES PRECIPITATION FROM VERY
LARGE PWAT VALUES AND MODERATE FORCING IN THE WED/WED NIGHT
TIMEFRAME. GIVEN WHAT IT HAS TO WORK WITH THIS APPEARS A BIT
OVERDONE SO WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW OUT ON THAT END OF
THE PERIOD AND WAIT FOR SOME CONTINUITY OR AGREEMENT. IN THE
MEANTIME TEMPS WILL REMAIN AOA NORMALS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME ONSHORE WIND FLOW PATTERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  92  77  89  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          74  89  75  89  73  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            77  97  76  97  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             75  93  76  91  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          77  86  77  82  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           75  97  75  96  73  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        76  92  77  91  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       77  84  77  84  76  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

JR/76...SHORT TERM
JV/71...LONG TERM