000
FXUS64 KCRP 210550
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1250 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 06Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO CONT ACROSS THE ERN CWA
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY EFFECTING ALI...CRP AND VCT BUT ALSO LRD
BRIEFLY IN THE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY MID
MORNING. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH TUE AND AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE IS FCST TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST LEADING
TO A SLIGHT CHC OF CONVECTION...MAINLY FOR THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEREFORE HAVE INTRODUCED VCSH FOR THE
LRD TAF FOR TUE EVENING...BUT AREAS N OF LRD HAVE A BETTER CHC OF
CONVECTION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 849 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/

DISCUSSION...AS OF WRITING...KDFX WSR 88D INDICATED A STRONG TO
SEVERE SUPERCELL OVER NE COAHUILA MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST.
0130Z MESOANALYSIS OF THE AIRMASS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS STORMS
INDICATES SUFFICIENT H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT BISECTING A CORRIDOR
OF MLCAPE VALUES OF APPROX 5000 J/KG THAT EXTEND FROM JUST WEST OF
LAREDO NORTHEAST TO NEAR PEARSALL. HOWEVER...CINH VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE FROM SE TO NW ACROSS THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THE CURRENT CONVECTION OVER OLD MEX SHOULD
DIMINISH BEFORE REACHING WEBB COUNTY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
ONGOING CONVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING WITH A LATE EVENING
FORECAST PACKAGE UPDATE LIKELY TO REMOVE MENTION OF EVENING
CONVECTION AND TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER DUE TO THICK DEBRIS CIRRUS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  92  76  92  75  /  20  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          75  89  73  90  73  /  20  20  10  10  10
LAREDO            76  98  76  98  76  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             76  94  74  94  74  /  20  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          76  86  76  86  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           74  98  73  97  72  /  30  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        77  93  74  93  74  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       75  85  75  85  75  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION