000
FXUS64 KCRP 182004
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
304 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...WILL CONTINUE TO GO
WITH PERSISTENCE ON WINDS/TEMPS/DEW POINTS WHICH SEEMS THE BEST WAY
TO GO GIVEN THIS PERSISTENT PATTERN. CONCERN WITH CONVECTION OVER
THE WESTERN-MOST PORTIONS OF THE CWFA STILL THERE...BUT THINK THAT
RATHER EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
WILL PRECLUDE IT. LAPS CINS RIGHT NOW ARE WELL ABOVE 100 J/KG. STILL
WITH SOME JET DYNAMICS POSSIBLE (MODELS NOW ARE SHOWING THIS A BIT
FARTHER NORTH)...WILL KEEP THE 10 POPS OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWEST.
PRETTY POTENT 850 MB THETA-E RIDGE OUT THERE BUT ADVECTION IS PRETTY
MUCH OUTSIDE OF THE AREA. ERGO...NO RAINFALL MENTIONED. MORE LOW
CLOUDS RETURN TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD SEE LESS CLOUDS ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS PUSH OUT OF AREA. LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IS SHOWING SMOKE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MOVING TOWARD
AREA...SO DID INCLUDE SOME PATCHY HAZE IN FOR OVERNIGHT AND FOR
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...BORDERLINE SCA CONTINUES
OVER THE SOUTHERN BAYS/NEARSHORE WATERS. AT THIS TIME 2 DAYS
AGO...WINDS OVER THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WERE AT SCA CRITERION AND
NOW THEY ARE SCEC. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN SCEC TONIGHT BUT THIS WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS LOW-END SCA COULD BE APPROACHED LATER THIS
EVENING AND/OR OVERNIGHT. MAINTAIN SCEC/NEAR SCA FOR SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT PRETTY MUCH ALL MARINE LOCATIONS. ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS STILL NOT CONDUCIVE FOR ANY STREAMER SHOWERS OF
SIGNIFICANCE AT THIS TIME. INCLUDED PATCHY HAZE OVERNIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...GENERAL RIDGING TO LEAD TO
QUIET WEATHER EARLY IN THE EXTENDED. BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AS SURFACE LOW REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
THIS WILL LIKELY TO CONTINUE THE HAZY CONDITIONS DUE TO ONGOING
AGRICULTURAL FIRES IN MEXICO. THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE ROCKIES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST DIGGING INTO TEXAS BY MONDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH AS A VORT LOBE ROUNDS THE
THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE BREAKS
SLIGHTLY WITH A FALL IN THE 1000-500MB THICKNESS AND WEAKENING CAP
AS A VORT MAX MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WEAK THETA-E RIDGING AND DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AS
WELL AS THE SLOWING DOWN SEA BREEZE MAY GIFT ENOUGH LIFT TO LEAD TO
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THIS IS
REALLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH THE CAP WILL WEAKEN. THE TROUGH WILL
QUICKLY EXIT BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH THE
WEAKENING RIDGE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER MIDLEVELS...YET CONTINUE TO
RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA TO UPPER 90S ACROSS
THE BRUSH COUNTRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  92  76  91  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          74  89  74  90  74  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            78 101  78 102  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             74  95  74  96  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          77  84  77  86  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           74 100  74  99  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        76  92  76  92  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       76  84  76  86  75  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM
CB/85...LONG TERM