000
FXUS64 KCRP 231804
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
104 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 18Z AVIATION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR CEILINGS NEAR THE COAST
THROUGH 19-20Z...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SCT
TO AT TIMES BKN CEILINGS AROUND 4000 FEET. HAZE FROM SMOKE
ORIGINATING IN MEXICO WILL PRODUCE 6-7SM VISIBILITIES AT SOME
LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON (3-4SM VISIBILITIES AT SOME
OFFSHORE LOCATIONS). STRATUS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE
COASTAL PLAINS BY 03-04Z AND LRD BY 07Z. GENERALLY MVFR IN
STRATUS...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS TEMPO IFR. SE WINDS 10-15 KTS
WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS AT SOME LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FROM
MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS WILL MOVE EAST OVER SOUTH TEXAS LATER TODAY.
MORNING STRATUS WILL SCATTER IN THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF SMOKE/HAZE
OVER THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION ALSO. AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN NEW MEXICO DURING THE PERIOD SO DO NOT
EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE ABOVE MODERATE LEVELS. THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
FRIDAY AND THE 85H THETA-E RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE. THERE IS A SLIM POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING OUT OF NORTHEAST MEXICO IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS COULD
GENERATE CONVECTION ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN THAT COULD MOVE CLOSE TO
THE RIVER BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH AT THE
MOMENT...SO WILL KEEP POPS AT 10 PERCENT AND LEAVE OUT WORDING
IN THE FORECAST.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LOW DVLPG ACROSS W TX AND SLOWLY MOVG E FRI
NIGHT/SAT. MODELS ARE ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH PRECIP ACROSS THE W CWA
OR AT LEAST CLOSE TO THE AREA BY SAT MORNING. MODELS ALSO SHOW THE
CAPPING INVERSION WEAKENING ON SAT. AIRMASS IS PROGD TO BE UNSTABLE
AND PWAT`S ARE PROGD TO INCREASE TO ABV 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE W CWA.
NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR COT HAS AROUND 50 PERCENT CHC OF PRECIP.
HOWEVER...THE GFS MOS IS ONLY 20 PERCENT. HAVE INTRODUCED A 20 POP
FOR THE WESTERN CWA FOR SAT BUT DID NOT WANT TO GO ANY HIGHER AS
UPPER DYNAMICS ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE AND THERE`S LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF LOW LEVEL FORCING OTHER THAN SOME WEAK SPEED CONVERGENCE ACROSS
THE W CWA. MODELS KEEP AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS DRAPED ACROSS SE AND
S TX SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...BUT THE DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS ON THE LESS FAVORABLE W SIDE OF THE TROF. A DRIER
AIRMASS IS PRGD TO BE ACROSS THE E CWA AND GULF WATERS THRU THE
WEEKEND. KEPT A SILENT 10 POP ACROSS THE W FOR SUNDAY DUE TO THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PROGD TO BE ACROSS MEX AND THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS. RIDGING ALOFT THEN TAKES HOLD MON/TUE WITH LITTLE TO
NO PRECIP EXPECTED. WARMER TEMPS ALSO EXPECTED FOR MON/TUE
TIMEFRAME. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING E AS A LOW
SWINGS ACROSS THE W U.S. RESULTING IN DEEPER MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED
INTO S TX BY WED. FOR NOW WENT WITH SILENT 10 POPS FOR WED BUT IF
THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT...POPS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED. AS FOR
WINDS...WENT WITH A BLEND OF MODELS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN BY NEXT TUE IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  87  76  91  74  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          73  88  73  89  72  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            77  97  77  97  77  /  10  10  10  20  10
ALICE             75  91  75  92  73  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          76  84  76  84  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           74  95  73  97  73  /  10  10  10  20  10
KINGSVILLE        76  90  75  92  73  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       77  84  76  84  76  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

JR/76...AVIATION