000
FXUS64 KCRP 202332
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
632 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A TRANSITION FROM VFR/BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING
TO PREDOMINATE MVFR CEILINGS/PRIMARILY WEAK SFC WIND OVERNIGHT
MAINLY EAST OF U.S. ROUTE 281. A TRANSITION TO VFR/BREEZY
CONDITIONS AREAWIDE EXPECTED AGAIN DRG THE TUESDAY MID
MORNING/EARLY AFTN HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...QUIET WEATHER IN
SOUTH TEXAS AS CONVECTION FIRES UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
LOW PWATS WILL INCREASE UP TO 1.6 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY INTO THE EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS
WHERE THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY MAY SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME AIDE IN DEVELOPMENT COMES IN THE FORM OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE AS
WELL AS A STRENGTHENING UPPER JET...HOWEVER A MORE DIFFLUENT FLOW
REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA. THE MAIN CAVEAT IN DEVELOPMENT THIS FAR
SOUTH REMAINS WITH THE STRONGLY DEVELOPED CAP THAT IS IN PLACE. AM
EXPECTING THE CAP TO CUT OFF ACTIVITY...BUT AN ISOLATED STORM MAY
DEVELOP WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF BECOMING STRONG...AGAIN MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. DUE TO THE CAP...ONLY
HAVE LESS THAN 20 POPS OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN CWA. ANY
ACTIVITY SHOULD END THROUGH THE LATE EVENING WITH THE LACK OF
HEATING. TUESDAY SHOULD BE QUIET EARLY HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
FARTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5 INCHES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH...WITH
A WEAKENING CAP OVER THE AREA. HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR
DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT HOWEVER A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG
MAINLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE THE MIDLEVELS STABILIZE A BIT MORE.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...JUST A DEGREE OR
TWO COOLER.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST...AS UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS CONSISTENT...NO FROPAS...AND
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. WILL KEEP POPS FOR WEDNESDAY PRETTY MUCH
AS-IS...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE VICTORIA AREA AND
NORTHEASTERN COASTAL BEND. ONLY OTHER CONCERN IS CONVECTION WHICH
MAY CREEP INTO THE EXTREME NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT... AS RICH THETA-E AIR RESIDES OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO
AND STORMS COULD FIRE UP AND MOVE TOWARD AREA AS WINDS PICK UP NEAR
THE RIO GRANDE AROUND SUNSET. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN A 10 POP OVER
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY FOR THESE POTENTIAL
EVENTS...BUT THINK STORMS WILL HAVE TROUBLE MAKING IT ACROSS AS
STORMS HAVE TO OVERCOME CAP AND NEGATIVE MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION
(I.E. BEST ADVECTION IS NORTH AND WEST OF AREA)...WITH NO VISIBLE
MEANS OF UPPER AIR SUPPORT. BY SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE IS IN PLACE AND
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE LIMITED. EXPECTING MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S BEFORE THE WEEKEND...THEN
GENERALLY  FROM NEAR 70 TO THE MID 70S AS ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT. FOR
HIGHS...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH 90S MOST INLAND AREAS...WITH
MID/UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST AND NORTHEASTERN COASTAL COUNTIES...
GENERALLY NEAR TO SLIGHT ABOVE GUIDANCE VALUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  90  76  92  76  /  10  10  20  10  10
VICTORIA          76  89  75  89  73  /  10  10  20  20  10
LAREDO            76 100  76  98  76  /  10  10  20  10  10
ALICE             75  93  76  94  74  /  10  10  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          76  84  76  86  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           74  99  74  98  73  /  10  10  30  10  10
KINGSVILLE        77  90  77  93  74  /  10  10  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       76  84  75  85  75  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION