000
FXUS64 KCRP 211617 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1117 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED HOURLY TEMP GRIDS AS WELL AS INCREASED
WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MIX WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING...AGAIN
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN TO RELAX INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLOWLY MOVES FURTHER SOUTH. STILL EXPECTING A LINE OF STORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...REACHING THE WESTERN CWA THIS
EVENING...MOVING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. AN INCREASED UPPER JET AND
WEAKENING CAP ACROSS THIS UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
STORMS TO BECOME STRONG WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THIS
EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL BE BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVER THE
SOUTHERN BAYS THIS AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO ISSUE AN SCA FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS. WINDS SHOULD RELAX INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTHWARD. ELSEWHERE...SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAF`S.

AVIATION...THE CRP TAF SITE CURRENTLY HAS IFR CIGS BUT MOST
LOCATIONS ARE AT MVFR LEVELS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY MID
MORNING AS THE STRATUS DECK MIXES OUT/LIFTS. GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY HOWEVER SPEEDS SHOULD BE A FEW KNOTS LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN FURTHER TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL
BDRY MOVES INTO CENTRAL TX. TSRA`S CHCS WILL INCREASE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR AREAS FROM LRD TO COT THEN SHIFTING E
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP FOR
TSRA`S FOR LRD AND VCT DUE TO BETTER DYNAMICS ACROSS THE W AND NRN
PORTIONS OF S TX. AM EXPECTING CONVECTION TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
FARTHER SE. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH
OF S TX.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY ON TAP
ALONG WITH GENERALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS/WINDY ACROSS THE SRN COASTAL
BEND....ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE A COUPLE OF KNOTS LESS THAN PREVIOUS
COUPLE OF DAYS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TONIGHT/WED AS
AN UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS TX AND PUSHES A FRONTAL BDRY ACROSS N
AND CENTRAL TX...THUS RELAXING THE GRADIENT ACROSS S TX. MODELS PROG
AN INVERTED TROF TO DVLP ACROSS MEX AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AHD OF THE FRONTAL BDRY. THIS WILL PROVIDE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE W CWA BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS PROG MOISTURE TO DEEPEN ACROSS S TX WITH
PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE NW CWA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS POOL OF MOISTURE THEN SHIFTS E OVERNIGHT. MODELS ALSO PROG
THE ENVIRONMENT TO BE UNSTABLE...HOWEVER A STRONG CAP WILL ALSO BE
IN PLACE TODAY BUT WEAKENING SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AS LOW/MID LEVEL
TEMPS COOL. KEPT SILENT 10 POPS FOR TODAY GIVEN THE STRONG CAP. AS
THE UPPER TROF NEARS THE W CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
PRECIP CHCS INCREASE BUT KEPT A SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SRN CWA AND
LOW END CHC ACROSS THE NRN CWA TONIGHT. AM EXPECTING THE BETTER
CHCS TO REMAIN N OF THE CWA WHERE THE BETTER DYNAMICS WILL BE
LOCATED. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR WX JUST N OF THE CWA WITH
GENERAL TSRA`S ACROSS THE CWA. AM EXPECTING THAT CONVECTION TO THE
N AND NW OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER S AND SE
ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AND INTO WED MORNING. COULD SEE ELEVATED
STORMS MAKE IT FARTHER S DUE TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. KEPT A
SLIGHT CHC FOR THE NE CWA ON WED DUE TO THE UPPER SYSTEM EXITING
TO THE NE AND MERGING WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS.
DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER...WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER
TODAY AND AGAIN WED.

MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE MODERATE TODAY BUT WEAKENING
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A FRONTAL
BDRY MVG INTO CENTRAL TX AND RELAXING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS S
TX. A WEAK TO MOD ONSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST ON WED.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER
IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PART OF THE
FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL NOSE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH
MID/UPPER 90S OUT WEST TO NEAR 90 ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS.
MOISTURE DOES BEGIN TO CREEP BACK ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. MOUNTAIN CONVECTION OVER MEXICO MAY BE A POSSIBILITY...
BUT LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS AS TO WHETHER STORMS WOULD MAKE IT INTO
THE WESTERN ZONES DUE TO STRONG CAPPING INVERSION. DO NOT FEEL IT IS
WORTH A MENTIONABLE POP AT THIS TIME SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FORECAST. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    90  77  92  74  92  /  10  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          89  76  89  73  90  /  10  30  20  10  10
LAREDO           100  76  98  76  99  /  10  20  10  10  10
ALICE             93  76  94  73  94  /  10  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          84  76  82  75  86  /  10  20  10  10  10
COTULLA           99  74  96  73  97  /  10  30  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        90  77  93  74  93  /  10  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       84  76  84  75  85  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM