000
FXUS64 KCRP 160023
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
723 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
PERIOD. BRIEF ISOLD CONVECTION MAY OCCUR THIS EVENING/EARLY
TONIGHT NEAR THE RIO GRANDE. FURTHER...BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY
OCCUR DURING THE 10-13Z SUNDAY PERIOD GENERALLY WEST OF U.S. ROUTE
77 AND EAST OF STATE ROAD 16. LIGHT ONSHORE SFC WIND LATER TONIGHT
WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO MODERATE LEVELS BY SUNDAY AFTN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
FORMED ACROSS THE INLAND COASTAL BEND ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS
THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS AS THE SEA-BREEZE PUSHES
FARTHER INLAND. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS LATE IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEUA...MEXICO...AND POTENTIALLY AS FAR SOUTH
AS WEBB AND LA SALLE COUNTIES. A COUPLE OF HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
AS WELL AS GFS WERE INDICATING THIS POTENTIAL AS FORCING IN THE
BASE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THIS AREA...WHERE PWATS
OF NEAR 2 INCHES STILL EXIST. HAVE INSERTED CHANCE POPS INTO THE
FORECAST FOR WEBB AND LA SALLE COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
OTHERWISE...WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. WHAT IS LEFT
OF THE MID LEVEL WEAKNESS REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CWA
ON SUNDAY. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A 20 POP NOW FOR SUNDAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE...BUT ONLY SILENT 10 POP
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WHERE DRIER AIR RESIDES. WARM AGAIN
TOMORROW...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN SOME AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL BEND IN THE 105 TO 109 RANGE.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN AND STRETCHING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEK. MODELS INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING AROUND SOUTH
TEXAS ON TUESDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH THIS.
LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FROM NEAR DUE SOUTH AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...AND LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRIER. BY MID WEEK LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL RETURN TO A MORE ONSHORE COMPONENT. BY THE END OF THE WEEK
MODELS HAVE BEEN MORE INCONSISTENT. ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BEEN
DIFFERING ON DEVELOPING A CENTER OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND ITS
PLACEMENT.  WITH THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND
KEEPS MOISTURE CENTER WELL TO THE SOUTH IN SOUTHERN MEXICO. ECMWF
HOWEVER PLACES IT FURTHER NORTH IN MEXICO...THOUGH STILL SOUTH OF
THE REGION. PREVIOUS RUNS HAD THIS FURTHER NORTH THOUGH...AND WITH
MODELS BEING SO INCONSISTENT...WENT AHEAD AND LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE OF
POPS IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...MADE FEW CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES AS THEY WILL BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  96  81  91  79  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          77  93  77  93  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            77  99  77 102  78  /  40  20  10  10  10
ALICE             77  96  77  95  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          81  92  81  91  80  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           76  96  76  97  75  /  40  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        79  97  79  93  79  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       81  91  81  89  80  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION