000
FXUS64 KCRP 162343 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
643 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE MID-COAST REGION TODAY ALONG WITH A BIT OF HAZE FROM
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO PROVIDING MVFR VSBYS ALONG THE COAST.
EXPECT THE MVFR CIGS TO SPREAD BACK ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND
BY 03Z...ALI AROUND 06 AND POSSIBLY LRD BY 10Z. CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE FROM 1200-1500 FT OVERNIGHT AND PUT A TEMPO GROUP
AT ALI/VCT FOR MVFR VSBYS IN FOG AROUND DAYBREAK. MOISTURE LAYER
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SHALLOW ON FRIDAY AND LOWER CLOUDS
WILL BREAK OUT AHEAD OF TODAY`S SCHEDULE. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL OCCUR AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...BASICALLY A TEMPERATURE
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT THREE PERIODS WITH NO RAINFALL EXPECTED. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...AND SPC 12Z 4
KM MODEL IS TRYING TO BRING THESE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO OUR CWFA.
HOWEVER...THIS IS THE ONLY MODEL DOING THIS AND THINK CAP WILL BE
TOO STRONG FOR THIS TO HAPPEN. ALSO...RIDGE IS MOVING IN AND THINK
THAT WILL MINORLY DETER CONVECTION TOO. WILL BRIEF RELIEF SHIFT ON
THIS TO KEEP AN EYE OUT ON. DRIER AIR MOVES IN EVEN MORE AND RIDGE
IS STRONGER SO CONVECTION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT NOT EXPECTED
EITHER. WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY
EVENING WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. WITH FAIRLY SIMILAR NEAR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS FOR THE NEXT THREE PERIODS...AM
NOT GOING TO STRAY TOO FAR FROM A PERSISTENCE FORECAST...BUT WILL GO
A TAD COOLER OUT WEST ON FRIDAY AS FORECAST 850 MB AND 2 METER
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT COOLER OUT THERE. CLOUDS DEVELOP NEAR THE
COAST EVENING/OVERNIGHT THEN DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING...BRINGING
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THAT IS ABOUT
IT.

MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...BORDERLINE SCA CONTINUES
OVER THE SOUTHERN BAYS/NEARSHORE WATERS...AND MORE RECENT WINDS OVER
THE NORTHERN BAYS HAVE COME UP TO NEAR SCA AS WELL. HAVE DECIDED TO
GO WITH A LOW-END SCA FOR ALL BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 03Z AS
WINDS WILL GUST ENOUGH I BELIEVE TO BRING IT TO THE SCA SIDE OF
BORDER. NEXT SHIFT CAN DECIDE WHAT TO DO.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...ABV NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE FCST AS A BROAD MID/UPR RDG
AXIS CENTERED OVER MEXICO NOSES INTO THE CWA.  AN ELEVATED MIXING
LAYER (MAINTAINING 700 MB TEMPS AROUND 10-13 DEG CELSIUS) WL KEEP
THE ATMOSPHERE WELL CAPPED.  MEANWHILE...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
DEPTH WL REMAIN ON THE SHALLOW SIDE...GENERALLY ONLY AROUND A FEW
THOUSAND FT.  SUFFICIENT PRESSURE AND THERMAL GRADIENTS WL CO-EXIST
AND MAINTAIN BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA IN THE AFTN/EVE.
LOW-END WINDY CONDITIONS WL OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL BEND
WITH POSSIBLE LOW-END SMALL CRAFT ADVY CONDITIONS FOR THE SRN WATERS
DUE TO THE STRONGER THERMAL GRADIENT IN THIS RGN.  THERE WL BE A FEW
POTENTIAL FLIES IN THE OINTMENT THOUGH.  ON SAT EVENING THERE IS A
VERY SMALL POTENTIAL OF ONE OR TWO SIERRA MADRE STORMS AFFECTING
WEBB COUNTY.  FOR NOW...GIVEN THE CAP STRENGTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE
PROFILE...WL ONLY GO WITH GHOST 10 PERCENT POPS FOR THE WESTERN
BRUSH COUNTRY FOR SAT EVE.  WL ALSO HOLD OFF ON ANY POPS FOR TUE/TUE
NIGHT DUE TO A WK FRONT PUSHING SWD INTO NORTH TX.  THE CONSENSUS
SOLN IS THAT MOST OF THE CONVECTION IF IT DEVELOPS WL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH ON TUE. WL NEED TO WATCH THIS THOUGH AS FORCING FROM WEAKLY
DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND KINEMATIC FORCING MAY BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE
CAP.  IF SO...THEN CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
PROPAGATION OF CONVECTION INTO THE NRN PORTION OF THE CWA ON TUE
EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    74  89  74  90  74  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          72  89  72  88  72  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            75 102  77 100  76  /   0   0  10  10  10
ALICE             72  95  72  92  74  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          75  82  75  84  74  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           71 101  73  99  74  /   0   0  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        72  92  73  92  74  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       74  84  74  84  74  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION