000
FXUS64 KCRP 191616 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1116 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...INCREASED WINDS IN THE GRIDS AS 12Z KCRP SOUNDING
SHOWED STRONGER WINDS THAN FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH WINDS ABOVE THE
SURFACE UP TO 38 KTS. HOWEVER...AM NOT EXPECTING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

&&

.MARINE...HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE BAYS AND NEAR
SHORE WATERS SOUTH PORT ARANSAS FOR WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
ELSEWHERE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WITH WINDS
GENERALLY 15 TO 20 KNOTS. WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF EXTENDING THE SCA IN AREA. HOWEVER...AM EXPECTING THE STRONGEST
WINDS TO OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAYS AND WATERS WHERE THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE THE TIGHTEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS WITH
VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING LATER THIS MORNING. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE BY MIDDAY WITH GUSTS AOA 30 KNOTS AT ALI/CRP/VCT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GUSTS EXPECTED NOT TO BE AS STRONG AT
LRD. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 01Z WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS
WITH MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AT ALI/CRP/VCT THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW HAS
BROUGHT STRATUS INTO SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. AS WITH THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS...EXPECT STRATUS TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING ONCE
MIXING COMMENCES AND SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE. FORECAST REMAINS
SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW DAYS AS WARM AND CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOWER 100S OUT WEST TO NEAR 90 ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
ZONES. MORE HAZE ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF
SMOKE FROM AGRICULTURAL BURNING OVER MEXICO. CONVECTION NOT LIKELY
TODAY AS WELL WITH 700MB TEMPS AOA 12 TO 13 DEGREES C SO WILL KEEP
POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS. MORE STRATUS EXPECTED THIS UPCOMING
NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAINING IN THE 70S IN ALL LOCATIONS.
PERSISTENCE FORECAST CONTINUES INTO MONDAY WITH WARM/HOT
TEMPERATURES AGAIN.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...A BENIGN SUMMERTIME
PATTERN STILL EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WITH CAPPING INVERSION THE RULE THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK.  THE ONE CAVEAT IS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS
A SURFACE BOUNDARY APPROACHES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THERE
IS ALSO SOME UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT COINCIDENT WITH MOISTURE
POOLING AND THETA E RIDGE.  STILL UNSURE ABOUT CAP STRENGTH
AT THIS TIME 700MB TEMPS THOUGH COOLING SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 11
DEGREES WEST...STILL WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP THE AREA UNDER A CAP. THE
CANADIAN MODEL HOWEVER WOULD INDICATE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. 850
TEMPS STILL QUITE WARM AS WELL.

OTHERWISE THINGS REMAIN QUIET. HOT TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE PERIOD
GRADUALLY COOL A DEGREE OR TWO BY LATE WEEK. LIGHT TO MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH PERIOD WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS AND MILD
MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    92  76  91  76  91  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          89  74  90  74  90  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           101  78 102  75  99  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             95  74  96  75  93  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          84  77  86  76  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          100  75  99  75  99  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        92  76  92  76  92  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       84  76  86  75  85  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM