000
FXUS64 KCRP 141826
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
126 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS
OTHERWISE PREDOMINATE VFR THIS AFTN. A TRANSITION TO MVFR CEILINGS
AND INCREASING COVERAGE OF CONVECTION GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LIKELY
DRG THE APPROXIMATELY 08-15Z WED PERIOD...THEN PROBABLY CONFINED
TO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGION DRG THE 15-18Z WED PERIOD. SOME
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH WIND AND HAIL AS THE MAIN THREATS.
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...EXPECT PERSISTENT AMBIENT ONSHORE
FLOW DRG THE TAF PERIOD WITH MODERATE SFC SPEEDS THIS AFTN/EVENING...
AND LGT TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION BELOW.

AVIATION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STEADILY INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS TODAY. PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING ALONG
I-37 WEST TO THE RIO GRANDE. IN ADDITION...PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITIES
IN BR WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 14Z VCT-BEA. GENERALLY SE WINDS
5-10 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING CRP/LRD AND LGT/VRB INLAND AT
ALI/VCT...BECOMING SE 10-15 KTS MOST LOCATIONS BY 18Z...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-20 KTS CRP/ALI/VCT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED SHRAS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF I-37 TODAY...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA CLOSER TO 00Z OUT NEAR
LRD. MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL COME TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL
FORCING INCREASE. COULD SEE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IMPACTING
LRD-COT CORRIDOR AROUND OR BEFORE 06Z...AND FARTHER EAST 06Z-
12Z...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN EXACT LOCATION/TIMING IS STILL LOW
AT THE MOMENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...A GRADUAL MOISTENING TREND
WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...WITH PWATS CLIMBING TO
1.7-1.9 INCHES ALONG AND WEST OF I-37. A FEW SHOWERS AROUND THIS
MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INLAND
SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND AND BRUSH COUNTRY SHIFTING WEST INTO THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS LATE AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH UNCAPPED
ENVIRONMENT. SYNOPTIC FORCING INCREASES TONIGHT AS MID AND UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OPENS ACROSS MEXICO AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW DECENT MID-UPPER LEVEL Q-V CONVERGENCE
OVERSPREADING THE AREA. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE
THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED COMPLEX DEVELOPING OUT OF MEXICO LATE
TONIGHT. HOWEVER BOTH HIGH RESOLUTION AND DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL
MODELS NOT IN AGREEMENT IN PLACEMENT OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. FOR
NOW HAVE HIGHEST POPS PLACED OUT ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO
GRANDE PLAINS. WHILE ELEVATED LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY NOT
IDEAL...DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 KNOTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
STRONGER STORMS TONIGHT. TAIL END OF SECOND SHORTWAVE IN THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
MOISTURE AXIS/H85 THETA-E ADVECTION ALIGNED ACROSS EASTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY WEDNESDAY MORNING...SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE COASTAL
BEND/VICTORIA REGION THROUGH THE DAY. ASSUMING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
DOES NOT PUSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE COASTAL BEND OVERNIGHT...
SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT FOR STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO POSSIBLY APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...EXITING UPPER TROUGH
AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH UPPER RIDGING ENTERING THE REGION
WILL DIMINISH RAIN CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS
WITH PWATS GENERALLY AROUND 1.3 INCHES OR BELOW WILL KEEP QUIET
WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED. WARMING TEMPERATURES AT H85 WILL LEAD
A WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW TRIPLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND BRUSH COUNTRY...HOWEVER WITH
A BIT MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW...AM THINKING TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER...YET REMAIN IN THE UPPER 90S. FARTHER EAST...TEMPS WILL
RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AROUND 80
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. A MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL EXIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
MODELS MOVE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT THE
END OF THE EXTENDED...HOWEVER A PERSISTENT RIDGE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
WITH A STRONG CAP SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES SLIM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    73  85  73  86  73  /  40  50  20  10  10
VICTORIA          71  81  70  83  71  /  30  60  20  10  10
LAREDO            73  91  73  98  74  /  50  20  10  10  10
ALICE             71  85  71  89  72  /  40  50  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          73  82  72  80  72  /  30  50  20  10  10
COTULLA           72  89  70  96  71  /  50  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        72  86  72  88  73  /  40  50  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       73  81  72  80  72  /  40  50  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION