000
FXUS64 KCRP 181747 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1247 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.DISCUSSION...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
OVER SOME OF THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA AND SOME OF THEM ARE
SLOWLY GETTING APPROACHED. OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TOO. WILL
ALSO HAVE TO WATCH WINDS OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES AS NOW WE ARE
GETTING GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS. THIS MAY ALSO MEAN A SCA FOR THE
SOUTHERN BAYS. PREFER TO WAIT FOR NOW AS HIGHER WINDS ARE VERY
ISOLATED AND WINDS NOT GETTING THAT HIGH OVER THE WATERS AT THIS
TIME (THAT IS WHY WILL MONITOR). PRODUCTS OUT.

SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...GOING PRETTY MUCH WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR
CLOUDS. TERMINAL FORECAST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE HIGHER THAN 24
HOURS AGO...BUT OTHER THAN THAT DIRECTIONS SHOULD BE SIMILAR.
COULD SEE SOME IFR CIGS OVER KCRP AND KALI BUT OVERALL EASTERN
THREE TERMINALS SHOULD SEE MVFR CONDITIONS AOB 03Z. THINK MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL STAY OUT OF KLRD BUT WILL BE CLOSE. HAZE DUE TO
SMOKE WILL BE A PROBLEM FORECASTING TONIGHT...AS IT DEPENDS ON
FIRES IN MEXICO. COMBINATION OF SMOKE PARTICULATES AND VERY LIGHT
MIST SHOULD BRING MVFR VSBYS TO KALI AND KCRP MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. EXPECTING CIGS AND VSBYS TO IMPROVE ABOUT 15Z SUNDAY WITH
WINDS INCREASING ABOUT THE SAME TIME AND BEING SSE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS CONTINUE THIS MORNING AT THE
ALI/CRP/VCT TAF SITES. ANTICIPATE A FEW MORE HOURS OF STRATUS
BEFORE MIXING OUT AS DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES. SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL ONCE AGAIN PICK UP TODAY WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE GUSTY WILL WINDS SHOULD DIE DOWN AROUND
SUNSET WITH STRATUS RETURNING SHORTLY THEREAFTER. IFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE BUT HAVE ONLY INCLUDED MVFR CEILINGS FOR NOW. HAZE MAY BE
AN ISSUE AT TIMES FOR CRP/VCT DUE TO SMOKE OVER MEXICO MOVING
NORTHWARD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...ANOTHER ROUND OF OF LOW
CLOUDS/STRATUS UNDERWAY THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. STRATUS
SHOULD THIN OUT LATER THIS MORNING AS MIXING COMMENCES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE EAST TODAY AS
SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES. TEMPS SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO
LOWER TODAY AS 850 TEMPS ARE NOT AS WARM AS YESTERDAY. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR 100 OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO NEAR 90 ACROSS
THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. PERSISTENT SFC TROUGH OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW BREEZY SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. ALSO...RETAINED A MENTION OF
PATCHY HAZE IN THE WEATHER GRIDS AS SMOKE FROM AGRICULTURAL
BURNING IN MEXICO MOVES NORTHWARD.

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE
WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION CAN SNEAK INTO WEBB COUNTY. STORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP TO THE NW OF THE REGION ALONG THE SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE
AND POSSIBLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO. MAIN LIMITING
FACTOR FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE STRONG CAP IN PLACE AS 700
TEMPS ARE BETWEEN 12 AND 13 DEGREES C OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
WILL KEEP SILENT 10 POPS OUT WEST FOR NOW THINKING CAP WILL HOLD
STRONG.

WARM AND CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL STILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY WITH SIMILAR TEMPS TO TODAY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS STRONG CAP STILL EXPECTED OVER THE AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MID-WEEK...AND
THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE CAP AT THAT
TIME. 850 TEMPS TO DECREASE A BIT...BUT 700 TEMPS STILL LOOK PRETTY
WARM. DID DECIDE TO ADD IN A 20 POP FOR NORTHERN AREAS...WITH A
WEAKENED CAP AT LEAST NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. COULD SEE SOME
DEVELOPMENT NORTH...POSSIBLY ENCROACHING ON THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE
THE CHANCE IS SMALL...IT DOES EXIST.

TEMPERATURES HOT EARLY IN THE WEEK MAY DECREASE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
LATER IN THE WEEK. NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE NEEDED IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    93  76  92  76  89  /   0  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          90  74  89  74  90  /   0  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           101  78 101  78 100  /   0  10  10  10  10
ALICE             96  74  95  74  95  /   0  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          84  77  84  77  86  /   0  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          101  74 100  74  98  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        93  76  92  76  92  /   0  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       84  76  84  76  86  /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION