000
FXUS64 KCRP 131733
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1233 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 18Z UPDATE

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH FEW LOW CLOUDS AND SCT HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
IN ACROSS THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH REST OF TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST BUT REMAIN
LIGHT TO MODERATE. EARLY TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT GREATER MOISTURE
RETURN AND MVFR CEILINGS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION BELOW.

AVIATION...PATCHY AREAS OF 5-6SM IN BR THROUGH 15Z ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. LIGHT WINDS
THIS MORNING BECOMING E TO SE MIDDAY 7-14 KTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR HAS MOVED
INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE NOW
PUSHED SOUTH INTO THE BRO CWA. AS A RESULT...WARMER TODAY AND
MAINLY DRY. AS THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST TONIGHT...DEEPER
MOISTURE RETURNS BACK TO THE NORTH...ARRIVING INTO SOUTH TEXAS
TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWATS CLIMB TO 1.7-1.8
INCHES WITH AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. BETTER CHANCES WILL COME
LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY JUST BEYOND THE SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT) AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OPENS AND
MOVES EAST WITH ASSOCIATED FORCING/JET STREAM MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. MULTIPLE S/W IMPULSES WILL ROUND THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WITH THE UPPER JET
STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY AND POSITIONING OVERHEAD. AT THE
SURFACE...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE MOISTURE
WITH PWATS OF 1.6-1.8 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS. WITH
THIS...HAVE INCREASED POPS GOING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ONLY EXPECTING
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS AS MIDLEVELS ARE NOT EXTREMELY UNSTABLE. THE
MOISTURE IS THEN SLOWLY SHUNTED EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS THE LOW GETS ABSORBED INTO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL
CANADA. UPPER RIDGING AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...WITH
POPS TRENDING THE DIMINISHING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING. RIDGING AND WARMING TEMPERATURES AT H85 WILL LEAD TO
QUIETER WEATHER AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED...WITH TEMPS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND BRUSH COUNTRY
REACHING INTO THE UPPER 90S...AND WITH TEMPS OVER THE EASTERN CWA IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    85  68  85  73  86  /  10  10  30  40  30
VICTORIA          84  61  84  69  82  /  10  10  20  40  30
LAREDO            86  67  87  74  95  /  10  10  40  40  10
ALICE             85  66  85  70  87  /  10  10  40  50  30
ROCKPORT          82  68  82  72  81  /  10  10  20  40  30
COTULLA           88  65  87  69  91  /  10  10  30  50  10
KINGSVILLE        85  67  85  72  88  /  10  10  40  50  30
NAVY CORPUS       80  69  81  72  81  /  10  10  30  40  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...AVIATION