000
FXUS64 KCRP 160542
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1242 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS LOWERING TONIGHT...CURRENTLY MVFR FOR ALL
SITES BUT LRD. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE...WITH LRD POSSIBLY GOING
MVFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD EARLY IN THE MORNING. LLJ HAS PICKED UP
TONIGHT AND WINDS REMAIN A BIT GUSTY...BUT WE SHOULD LOSE THE
GUSTS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. TOMORROW CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE
FOR ALL SITES GRADUALLY. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN. LOWERING
CIGS WILL RETURN TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH STRONG INVERSION
OVER SOUTH TEXAS. CEILINGS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 3500-4500 FT RANGE
OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AT 23Z WITH SOME AREAS OF LOWER CEILINGS/MVFR
LINGERING ALONG THE COAST FROM NAVY CORPUS TO PORT LAVACA. EXPECT
THESE LOWER CEILINGS WILL BECOME PREVALENT OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS
BY 03Z WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING. MVFR CEILINGS OF
1200-1500 FT ARE EXPECTED FROM 07Z THROUGH 14Z OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS
WITH A CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS REACHING LRD FROM 09Z-13Z. LOW LEVEL
JET WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH OVER THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS SUCH THAT
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALICE OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS
WILL LIFT TO 2000-2500 FT BY 14Z AND THEN SCATTER OUT MOST AREAS
BY 16Z EXCEPT FOR VCT WHERE CIGS WILL PERSIST UNTIL 18Z.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS FOR THURSDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS FOR
THE COASTAL PLAINS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/

DISCUSSION...WINDS HAVE PICKED UP ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND IN THE
PAST HOUR AND AM EXPECTING THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS DUE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS W TX. LLJ IS
ALSO PROGD TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT TO AROUND 35KT. THEREFORE HAVE
INCREASED WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE
WATERS FOR THIS EVENING WITH THE STRONG WINDS SPREADING E ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE WATERS BY LATE EVENING. AM EXPECTING WINDS ACROSS THE
BAYS TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY MIDNIGHT AND ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS BY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL LIKELY BE UPDATING TO
LOWER POPS FOR THIS EVENING AS WELL DUE TO SUBSIDENT FLOW
ALOFT/DRY SLOT ACROSS S TX.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...THE NAM AND GFS
BOTH PROG THE UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE REGION TO SHIFT EAST
WHILE A SOMEWHAT FLAT RIDGE MOVES/DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. THUS
AN INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE/TEMPS EXPECTED DRG THE PERIOD. TONIGHT...
SOUNDINGS FROM LAPS ANALYSES REVEAL STEADY DECREASE IN MID/UPPER
LEVEL MSTR FROM WEST TO EAST. YET BASED ON SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
AND LOCAL WRF-ARW DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT...WL MAINTAIN POPS OVER
THE WEST THIS EVENING. YET WL KEEP POPS LOW BASED ON MOISTURE
CONSIDERATIONS/INCREASING 700-300MB Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE.
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THURSDAY OWING TO THE SHIFT IN AIRMASS
(INCREASING THICKNESS.) ANTICIPATE NEAR 100F MAX TEMPS OVER THE
EXTREME WEST. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT.

MARINE...WL MAINTAIN SCEC OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN 25-35KT SOUTH WIND AT 925MB AND 2-3C/KM 0-1KM
LAPSE RATES (NAM DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT.) SCEC WIND EXPECTED
THURSDAY AS WELL. ANTICIPATE THAT ANY SCA WIND WILL REMAIN LESS
THAN 2HR DURATION...THUS NO SCA AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED
THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED. MODELS INCREASE MOISTURE RETURN
SOMEWHAT OVER THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT CINH AND NEGLIGIBLE
DYNAMICS ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION APPEARS UNLIKELY. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE CAP COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED STREAMER
SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST BUT PROBABILITIES AND POTENTIAL COVERAGE ARE
TOO LOW FOR ANY FORECAST MENTION.

ECMWF BRINGS A FRONT DOWN TO THE COAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT WAVE
VERY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHILE GFS KEEPS IT NORTH OF US.
EVEN IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION ENDS UP VERIFYING BETTER THERMAL PROFILES
MAKE ME VERY SKEPTICAL OF ANY PRECIPITATION RESULTING FROM THIS.
NEVERTHELESS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE.

TEMPERATURES TO RAPIDLY RISE WELL ABOVE NORMALS AND STAY THERE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OUT WEST WHERE HIGHS WILL HOVER NEAR
100 FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    87  75  91  75  91  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          85  73  89  73  89  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           100  75 101  76 100  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             91  73  92  74  92  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          81  73  85  74  86  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           98  72  99  73  98  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        90  74  92  75  92  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       81  74  85  74  85  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION