000
FXUS64 KCRP 132034
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
334 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...TONIGHT SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. PWAT VALUES WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN AS MOISTURE MOVES BACK IN FROM THE BRO
CWA. MODELS INDICATING VALUES WILL REACH 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE INCREASING
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND LOWS WILL BE A BIT
WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM EAST TO
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...AND A WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
OVER MEXICO WILL OPEN AND SWING TO THE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE...UPPER LEVEL
FORCING...AND RELATIVELY UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC ARE
CONSISTENT WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
WEDNESDAY ACRS THE REGION. SCT CONVECTION EARLY WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED
BY A TRANSITION TO DRIER CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST OWING TO
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE (NO FROPA OVER THE CWA/MSA ANTICIPATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM HWR.) DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY OWING TO STG
THERMODYNAMIC CAP DEVELOPING (GFS DETERMINISTIC.) THE FOREGOING NWP
MODEL SOLNS PROG SIMILAR TIMING WITH RESPECT TO THE NEXT SYSTEM
PROGD TO ENTER THE WEST COAST LATE THURSDAY THEN APPROACH THE PLAINS
SAT. THIS PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE TO INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW
(ANTICIPATED ONLY SCEC CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.) THE GFS
PROGS PWAT VALUES TO INCREASE ABOVE 1.5IN BY LATE SAT ALONG WITH
INCREASING UPPER JET DYNAMICS/WEAKENING THERMODYNAMIC CAP. YET...
PREFER TO SEE CONSISTENCY IN THIS SOLN BEFORE FCSTG CONVECTION. THE
GFS/ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN DEPICT THE FOREGOING UPPER SYSTEM TO
MOVE VERY SLOWLY EWD SAT/MONDAY WITH A FLAT RIDGE/ZONAL FLOW OVER
THE REGION. PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW COULD INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR
LOCALLY-GENERATED CONVECTION SUNDAY/MONDAY...YET GFS PROGS A STRONG
THERMODYNAMIC CAP OVER THE REGION DRG THAT TIME. THUS...WL MAINTAIN
DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    68  84  72  82  72  /  10  30  40  30  10
VICTORIA          63  84  68  82  70  /  10  20  30  40  10
LAREDO            70  87  73  93  73  /  10  40  40  20  10
ALICE             67  84  70  85  71  /  10  40  40  30  10
ROCKPORT          70  82  71  77  73  /  10  20  30  30  10
COTULLA           65  87  69  90  70  /  10  30  40  20  10
KINGSVILLE        69  85  71  85  71  /  10  40  40  30  10
NAVY CORPUS       70  81  72  78  72  /  10  30  30  30  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM