000
FXUS64 KCRP 161729 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1229 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

.DISCUSSION...SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY SSE WINDS. MVFR CIGS RETURN AOA 03Z EASTERN
TAFS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AND WIND GUSTS DIMINISHING. DO NOT
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO FORM IN KLRD. MVFR CIGS BEGIN TO END AOA
15Z...AND AM GOING TO GO WITH THAT ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME
TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 15Z-17Z BUT DO NOT WANT TO
INCLUDE IN TERMINALS THAT LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY SSE
WINDS RETURN AGAIN ABT 15Z ALL BUT KLRD WHERE WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO GUST ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/

DISCUSSION...INCREASED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS
THE BOARD BASED ON CLEARER SKIES EXPECTED AND VERY WARM 850MB
TEMPERATURES (AND THAT STILL MAY NOT BE ENOUGH). DECREASED CLOUD
COVER AS SATELLITE IS SHOWING MAIN CLOUD AREA MOVING NORTHEAST.
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS ACCORDINGLY. NO OTHER CHANGES
TO LATTER PERIODS AT THIS TIME. PRODUCTS ARE OUT.

MARINE...CANCELLED SCA FOR THE NORTHERN BAYS...BUT EXTENDED IT
OVER THE SOUTHERN BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS TIL 6 PM TONIGHT (THE
LATTER LOCATION WAS A NEW ISSUANCE). MODELS ARE SHOWING BORDERLINE
SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS...AND A
BIT LESS SO OVER THE OTHER AREAS. IT WILL BE BORDERLINE...BUT
NORMALLY WHEN SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS ARE WINDY...SOUTHERN BAYS
ARE NEAR SCA (THEREFORE EXTENDED IT). ALL OTHER AREAS ARE SCEC.
WILL RE-EVALUATE IN AFTERNOON PACKAGE AS IT IS BORDERLINE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT
BROUGHT US RAIN YESTERDAY AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH TEXAS
WILL CONTINUE TO PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY...WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING IN OVER SOUTH TEXAS. THERE IS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS
AT THIS TIME. THE BOUNDARY COULD MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT SHOULDN`T BE MUCH MORE THAN A
WIND SHIFT. WARM ADVECTION IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BUILD A STRONG
CAP OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 850 TEMPS ARE
FORECAST AS HIGH AS 26C OVER THE RIO GRAND PLAINS (23-24C OVER THE
COASTAL BEND). THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY...AND WARMING CONDITIONS OVER
THE AREA. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE AROUND 100 IN THE WEST...TO THE
MID AND UPPER 80S EAST. SIMILAR TEMPERATURE ARE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY AS WELL. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH
INCREASING WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE MIXING DOWN.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...WARM H85-H7 TEMPS
WILL LEAD TO STRONG CAP REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE DOES INCREASE
BACK UP THE RIO GRANDE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH PWATS CLIMBING TO NEAR
1.5 INCHES. MODELS INDICATE THE TAIL END OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
OUT OF MEXICO AND ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
CONVECTION MAY FIRE ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND MOVE TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE SATURDAY EVENING...AND AGAIN LATE
SUNDAY...BUT STRENGTH OF CAP OVER THE REGION MAKES CONFIDENCE IN
CONVECTION REACHING WESTERN CWA LOW...AND THEREFORE NO WX CURRENTLY
MENTIONED. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE CAP COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST BUT AGAIN
PROBABILITIES AND POTENTIAL COVERAGE ARE TOO LOW FOR ANY FORECAST
MENTION. OTHERWISE LONG TERM WILL FEATURE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WITH PERIODS OF BREEZY CONDITIONS (LOCALLY WINDY
AT CRP). ECMWF AND CMC HAVE BEEN INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION/QPF ACROSS BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS
TUESDAY...AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS/MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. APPEARS BOTH
ARE SLIGHTLY DEEPER WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS AND
WEAKEN THE CAP ACROSS THE REGION. GFS MAINTAINS THE CAP AND DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. FOR NOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WITH SILENT 10 POP IN THE GRIDS...GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    91  74  90  75  90  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          88  73  88  73  89  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           102  75 101  75  98  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             96  73  94  74  92  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          85  74  84  75  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          101  73 100  74  98  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        94  73  92  75  92  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       85  73  83  74  84  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION