000
FXUS64 KCRP 121941
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
241 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...MODELS STILL SHOW
LOTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT (PWATS AROUND 2
INCHES)...ALTHOUGH THE IMPACTS FROM THE UPPER LOW BEGIN TO SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST AND OUT OF THE CWFA. AS A RESULT...POP FORECAST
WILL REFLECT HIGHER POPS OUT TO THE WEST FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PERIODS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. POP GUIDANCE FROM MODELS
(ESPECIALLY ECMWF) LIKELY A BIT TOO HIGH AS GUIDANCE IS PROBABLY
KEYING ON THE VERY HIGH RH VALUES (WHICH ARE VERY HIGH FOR THE
AREA AT THIS TIME OF YEAR). FOR THIS EVENING...WILL JUST GO WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WESTERN AREAS (ECHOES SHOWING UP NOW ALBEIT
WEAK ONES AND MAY NOT LAST)...WITH RAIN CHANCES SHIFTING TOWARD
THE WATERS AND COAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. HRRR 4KM MODEL IS SHOWING
ANY ACTIVITY IN OUR CWFA THIS EVENING OUT BY 02Z (IF NOT EARLIER).
ONE MORE DAY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EASTERN AREAS
ON THURSDAY...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION FARTHER WEST MORE
PROXIMATE TO UPPER LOW. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WILL GO WITH LOW END
CHANCE POPS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE REMAINDER
OF WESTERN FOUR COUNTIES. WITH MOISTURE VALUES SO HIGH AND
REMAINING SO FOR THE NEXT THREE PERIODS...SAW NO NEED TO SWAY TOO
MUCH FROM A PERSISTENCE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH DID GO A
BIT WARMER THURSDAY NIGHT THAN TONIGHT OUT WEST WHERE MOISTURE AND
CLOUDS WILL LINGER THE LONGEST.

&&

.MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...EXPECTING RAINFALL
ACTIVITY IN THE WATERS TO PICK UP SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNRISE.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE/DIMINISH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
COVERAGE EVEN LOWER THURSDAY NIGHT (AND MAINLY SOUTH) AS THE
MOISTURE AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH
UNSETTLED WEATHER GRADUALLY ENDING AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW
FINALLY BEGINS TO ROTATE NORTH OF THE AREA. PWATS REMAIN HIGH INTO
THE EVENING ON FRIDAY BUT WITH UPPER SUPPORT LEAVING AND A BUILDING
GULF RIDGE BRINGING DRIER AIR OVER THE EAST WILL CONFINE POPS TO THE
WESTERN COUNTIES.

UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BROADEN AND EXPAND OVER THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EXPECT CONDITIONS TYPICAL OF SUMMERTIME RIDGES
WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND HEAT INDICES COMMONLY
BETWEEN 105 AND 109 IN THE AFTERNOONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    80  95  80  96  76  /  20  30  10  10  10
VICTORIA          75  93  75  94  75  /  10  20  10  10  10
LAREDO            76  95  77 100  80  /  20  40  30  20  20
ALICE             75  94  76  98  76  /  10  30  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          80  91  80  92  78  /  10  30  10  10  10
COTULLA           74  94  75  94  76  /  20  30  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        78  95  78  97  76  /  20  30  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       79  91  80  92  79  /  20  30  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM
JV/71...LONG TERM