000
FXUS64 KCRP 171150 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
650 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERAL VFR ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TODAY...WITH BRIEF
MVFR CIGS AFFECTING LOCATIONS FROM ALI-CRP THROUGH 14Z. LIGHT SLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15KTS AROUND 15Z...BECOMING SELY AFTER
18Z. GUSTS TO 20-25KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTN/EVNG. WINDS
WILL DECOUPLE AGAIN THIS EVNG /AFTER 06Z FOR LRD/. CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVNG.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATING PWATS AROUND 1.6 INCHES THIS MORNING. THIS COMBINED
WITH A LINGERING VORT MAX...DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
THETA-E ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
TODAY FOR THE EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL BEND. A MODERATE CAP REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH H85
TEMPS AROUND 18-20C AND H7 TEMPS AROUND 10-11C. WITH THIS BEING
SAID...ONLY BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. THEREFORE...WILL
ONLY KEEP 10 POPS WITH MENTION FOR SHOWERS DURING THE MID MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE FURTHER DRYING OCCURS AND THE VORT
LOBE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE...QUIET
CONDITIONS WILL GO ON THROUGH TUESDAY. WARM AND BREEZY DAYS ARE
AGAIN IN STORE FOR THE SHORT TERM...WITH PERSISTENT TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S FOR MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS...TO NEAR THE CENTURY
MARK ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...TO THE LOW 90S ALONG THE
COASTAL LOCATIONS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS WILL BE WEST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WHILE A WEAK MID LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS IS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO
WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO TEXAS THURSDAY. THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN
SEA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A WESTWARD COURSE ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WEDNESDAY AND INLAND INTO CENTRAL MEXICO THURSDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST FRIDAY WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS FROM THE OZARKS TO SOUTH TEXAS BY SATURDAY. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RAIN
CHANCES MINIMAL.

MARINE...A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW EARLY
THIS MORNING...SHOULD WEAKEN BY MID MORNING...ONLY TO RESTRENGTHEN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS SHOULD BE STRONGEST MAINLY ALONG
THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND...SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS. HOWEVER OVERALL
WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 KNOTS FOR THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE
WATERS. THEREFORE...HEADLINES OF SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION WILL REMAIN IN THE COASTAL WATER FORECAST PRODUCT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    97  79  97  80  97  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          96  75  95  75  96  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           102  79 102  79 101  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             98  76  97  77  98  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          92  82  92  81  92  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           99  75  99  75  99  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        98  76  97  79  98  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       91  81  91  82  91  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION