000
FXUS64 KCRP 160849
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
349 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT
BROUGHT US RAIN YESTERDAY AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH TEXAS
WILL CONTINUE TO PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY...WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING IN OVER SOUTH TEXAS. THERE IS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS
AT THIS TIME. THE BOUNDARY COULD MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT SHOULDNT BE MUCH MORE THAN A
WIND SHIFT. WARM ADVECTION IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BUILD A STRONG
CAP OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 850 TEMPS ARE
FORECAST AS HIGH AS 26C OVER THE RIO GRAND PLAINS (23-24C OVER THE
COASTAL BEND). THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY...AND WARMING CONDITIONS OVER
THE AREA. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE AROUND 100 IN THE WEST...TO THE
MID AND UPPER 80S EAST. SIMILAR TEMPERATURE ARE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY AS WELL. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH
INCREASING WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE MIXING DOWN.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...WARM H85-H7 TEMPS
WILL LEAD TO STRONG CAP REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE DOES INCREASE
BACK UP THE RIO GRANDE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH PWATS CLIMBING TO NEAR
1.5 INCHES. MODELS INDICATE THE TAIL END OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
OUT OF MEXICO AND ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
CONVECTION MAY FIRE ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND MOVE TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE SATURDAY EVENING...AND AGAIN LATE
SUNDAY...BUT STRENGTH OF CAP OVER THE REGION MAKES CONFIDENCE IN
CONVECTION REACHING WESTERN CWA LOW...AND THEREFORE NO WX CURRENTLY
MENTIONED. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE CAP COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST BUT AGAIN
PROBABILITIES AND POTENTIAL COVERAGE ARE TOO LOW FOR ANY FORECAST
MENTION. OTHERWISE LONG TERM WILL FEATURE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WITH PERIODS OF BREEZY CONDITIONS (LOCALLY WINDY
AT CRP). ECMWF AND CMC HAVE BEEN INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION/QPF ACROSS BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS
TUESDAY...AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS/MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. APPEARS BOTH
ARE SLIGHTLY DEEPER WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS AND
WEAKEN THE CAP ACROSS THE REGION. GFS MAINTAINS THE CAP AND DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. FOR NOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WITH SILENT 10 POP IN THE GRIDS...GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    89  74  90  75  90  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          86  73  88  73  89  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           100  75 101  75  98  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             94  73  94  74  92  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          83  74  84  75  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           99  73 100  74  98  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        92  73  92  75  92  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       83  73  83  74  84  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

PZ/83...SHORT TERM
JR/76...LONG TERM