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000
FXUS64 KCRP 171731 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1231 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.DISCUSSION...SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...WILL GENERALLY USE A MODIFIED PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR
THE TERMINALS...WITH MAIN ADDITION BEING THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS
COMING IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE PACIFIC AND SEEN FROM
SATELLITE. DO NOT THINK HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL TEMPER MVFR
CONDITIONS FROM FORMING TONIGHT EASTERN 3 TERMINALS...SO HAVE
PRETTY MUCH FOLLOWED THE TIMING OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PREVIOUS
24 HOUR OBSERVATIONS. COULD HAVE TEMPO IFR AT KCRP (LIKE LAST
NIGHT) BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO SHORT-LIVED TO WARRANT A
TEMPO AT THIS TIME. SIMILIARLY...FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN ON
SATURDAY WILL USE THIS MORNINGS OBSERVATIONS AS A GUIDE...BUT WILL
DELAY VFR CIGS BY AN HOUR MOST AREAS DUE TO THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
HOWEVER...ALSO EXPECT WINDS TO BE A BIT MORE BRISK ON SATURDAY
MORNING THAN OBSERVED TODAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASE AND
APPROACHING UPPER LOW MOVING TOWARD NW TX WILL LIKELY HELP WINDS
TO BE UP A BIT MORE THAN THE LIGHTER-THAN-EXPECTED WINDS OBSERVED
THIS MORNING (OR AT LEAST NOT GETTING AS GUSTY AS FAST).

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/

DISCUSSION...JUST MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE GRIDS...BUT TEXT ZONE
FORECAST IS FINE (WILL RE-ISSUE FOR MORNING WORDING REMOVAL).
MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS DRY AIRMASS OVER AREA (PWAT 1.08
INCHES)...WITH MOISTURE ONLY UP TO ABOUT 950 MB (AND VERY DRY
ABOVE THAT). THAT MEANS LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE FAST...AND NO
RAINFALL IS GOING TO OCCUR. SATELLITE IS SHOWING SOME MID/HIGH
CLOUDS COMING IN FROM THE PACIFIC...SO WE SHOULD SEE SOME MORE
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS FINE AND
WILL LET THAT RIDE. DID ADJUST DEW POINTS (DOWN) MAINLY OUT WEST
GIVEN SOUNDING PROFILE. PRODUCTS ARE OUT. SFTCRP IS FINE...SINCE
NO RAIN AND NO MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE CHANGES.

MARINE...CANCELLED THE SCA. MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS WINDS ABOUT 10
KNOTS LOWER THIS MORNING THAN 12Z SOUNDING YESTERDAY...SO THINK
SCEC WILL SUFFICE FOR NOW (WILL MONITOR). OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS
FORECAST IS STILL OK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS STILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THIS
MORNING. LOW CLOUDS MAY APPROACH LRD AND HAVE INCLUDED A SMALL
TEMPO GROUP WITH MVFR CIGS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER THIS
MORNING WHEN SOUTHEAST WINDS PICK UP. GUSTY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
AROUND SUNSET WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS LIKELY. SOME
GUIDANCE HINTS AT THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING BUT
WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...LOW CLOUDS BLANKET MUCH OF
SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING BUT WILL THIN OUT LATER THIS MORNING AS
MIXING COMMENCES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY RESULTING IN ANOTHER DAY OF WARM AFTERNOON HIGHS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO TRIPLE DIGITS OVER THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS TO NEAR 90 ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. STRONG CAP IN
PLACE WITH 700 MB TEMPS AOA 12 DEGREES C WILL KEEP CONVECTIVE
CHANCES LOW TODAY. SFC TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND WEST TEXAS
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES FOR THE COASTAL BEND
BOTH TODAY AND SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST ON
SATURDAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES. CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND OVER THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN
CAPPED ACROSS OUR AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH NON-MENTIONABLE POPS.
YET ANOTHER WARM DAY EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS ON SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS NEAR 100 OUT WEST...NEAR 90 IN THE EAST.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
AND A STRONG MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION WILL KEEP A BENIGN PATTERN
OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 700 MB TEMPS OF 12 TO 13C
AND 850 TEMPS OF 23 TO 25C ARE THE RULE IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES TO THE
EAST NOT MUCH COOLER. WHILE THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
DEVELOPING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE ON SATURDAY
EVENING...STILL THINK THE STRONG CAP SHOULD SUPPRESS ANYTHING INTO
TEXAS. WILL HOLD ONTO JUST A 10 POP FOR THIS PERIOD.  THE NEXT
QUESTION COMES IN ON TUESDAY WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE/SURFACE
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO TEXAS. WHILE THE BOUNDARY LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD
REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION. 850 TEMPS ARE STILL PRETTY
HIGH THOUGH...AND FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP A 10 POP FOR NOW. IF
GUIDANCE STAYS CONSISTENT..AND 850 TEMPS COOL...WOULD CONSIDER
INTRODUCING A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS REMAIN HOT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 90S DAILY...WITH SOME MID TO UPPER 80S
THROUGH THE COASTAL BEND...AND A FEW LOCATIONS AROUND 100 IN THE FAR
WEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    89  74  89  73  90  /   0  10   0  10  10
VICTORIA          89  72  90  71  87  /   0  10   0  10  10
LAREDO           103  77 100  76 100  /   0  10   0  10  10
ALICE             95  72  95  73  93  /   0  10   0  10  10
ROCKPORT          82  75  84  74  85  /   0  10   0  10  10
COTULLA          101  73  99  74  97  /   0  10   0  10  10
KINGSVILLE        92  73  92  73  90  /   0  10   0  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       84  74  84  74  85  /   0  10   0  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION