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000
FXUS64 KCRP 171949
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
249 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...MAIN ISSUE NEXT
THREE PERIODS IS RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUT TO THE WEST...WHICH IS NOT
VERY HIGH (BUT THE MOST NOTABLE THING ON THIS FORECAST). THETA-E
RIDGE IS NORTHWEST OF AREA TONIGHT AND MOISTURE REMAINS
LIMITED...SO DO NOT SEE MUCH IN CONVECTION PROXIMATE TO AREA
TONIGHT. FOR LATE SATURDAY...UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES WEST TEXAS
AND IMPACTS ARE MAINLY NORTH OF AREA. SOME JET DYNAMICS HOWEVER
OUT TO THE WEST WHERE CAP IS THE WEAKEST AND WHERE DEEP BOUNDARY
LAYER THETA-E AIR RESIDES. BIT IMPEDIMENT THOUGH IS THE CAP.
MODELS HAVE 12C 700MB TEMPS OVER THE AREA AND ANY STORMS WHICH
DEVELOP WEST/NORTHWEST OF AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE TROUBLE
GETTING TOO FAR SOUTH. THUS...WILL NOT MENTION RAINFALL IN THIS
PACKAGE (SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS KEEP IT OUT OF AREA TOO).

OTHERWISE...MORE OF THE SAME EXCEPT TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TAD
COOLER ON SATURDAY DUE TO COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER/850 MB
TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL BE UP A BIT MORE TOO...WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN A PERSISTENCE FORECAST EXPECTED...WITH ONLY A
DEGREE OR TWO DEVIANCE FROM PERSISTENCE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...BORDERLINE SCA
CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAYS/NEARSHORE WATERS AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY TONIGHT. WILL HOLD OFF ON SCA AT THIS TIME...AS
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS 24 HOURS AND
MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE SCEC FOR THE MOST PART. MAY HAVE TO DEAL
WITH THIS ISSUE AGAIN SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT SAME LOCATIONS.
OTHERWISE NO BIG ISSUES AS NO RAIN/THUNDER EXPECTED WITH BEST
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND LIFT OUT TO THE WEST AND/OR OUT OF
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...SOUTH TEXAS REMAINS IN A QUIET
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT CAPPING
INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE WITH ABOVE NORMAL MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES.
ONLY FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED IS A SHORTWAVE AND
ATTENDANT SURFACE BOUNDARY TO MOVE INTO WEST/NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE COASTAL BEND...AND
WITH CAP IN PLACE ANY SUPPORT ABOVE THAT WOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT
EVEN IF IT DID MATERIALIZE. ONLY OUTSIDE CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION
WOULD BE ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS UNDER THE CAP. PROBABILITY AND
COVERAGE OF THIS POSSIBILITY IS TOO LOW FOR ANY GRID OR ZONE MENTION.

BASED ON FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES ANTECEDENT TEMP GRIDS LOOK
REASONABLE...WITH JUST A FEW GRIDS FRESHENED WITH MORE RECENT
TRENDS. THE GENERAL IDEA OF BOTH MINS AND MAXES A COUPLE OF DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL SHOULD HOLD THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  91  75  90  75  /   0   0   0  10  10
VICTORIA          73  89  73  87  74  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            75 101  76 100  76  /  10   0  10  10  10
ALICE             73  95  73  93  74  /   0   0   0  10  10
ROCKPORT          74  84  75  85  75  /   0   0  10  10  10
COTULLA           72 100  73  97  75  /  10   0  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        73  91  74  90  75  /   0   0   0  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       74  84  75  85  75  /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM
JV/71...LONG TERM