Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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AXUS74 KCRP 020207
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DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
807 PM CST THU JAN 1 2015

...2014 ENDS WITH MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS DROUGHT-FREE...

...2014 PRODUCES ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL TO MOST SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF SOUTH TEXAS BUT BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL TO MOST NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF SOUTH TEXAS...

...RESERVOIR LEVELS OVER SOUTH TEXAS REMAIN LOW...

...A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN SOME DROUGHT-STRICKEN SOUTH TEXAS AREAS
DURING DECEMBER...

...ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER SOUTH TEXAS FROM JANUARY
2015 THROUGH MARCH 2015...


.SYNOPSIS...
THE MONTH OF DECEMBER NORMALLY DOES NOT SEE A LOT OF CONVECTIVE
RAINFALL EVENTS...SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE OVER SOUTH TEXAS TENDS TO
BE MORE STABLE THAN DURING OTHER MONTHS. BECAUSE OF THIS...AVERAGE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE RELATIVELY LOW COMPARED WITH OTHER MONTHS OF
THE YEAR. AS A RESULT...ONE SHOULD NOT EXPECT A GREAT DEAL OF
CHANGE IN DROUGHT STATUS DURING THE LAST MONTH OF THE YEAR OR THE
FIRST COUPLE OF MONTHS OF A NEW YEAR.

HOWEVER...SOME CONVECTIVE RAINFALL DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH
DID PROVIDE SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS. PORTIONS OF CALHOUN AND REFUGIO COUNTIES
SAW BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL ON DECEMBER 19TH. WHILE
MOST OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE HYDROLOGIC
SERVICE AREA (HSA) RECEIVED NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL
DURING DECEMBER...MOST OF THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
SAW NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL DURING THE MONTH (WHERE RAINFALL
DEPARTURES WERE MORE THAN 1 INCH BELOW NORMAL).

ALL IN ALL...THERE WAS ONLY A LITTLE CHANGE TO THE DROUGHT STATUS
OVER SOUTH TEXAS...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
HSA. ACCORDING TO THE DROUGHT MONITOR PRODUCT...VALID ON DECEMBER
30 2014...SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS STILL EXIST OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF VICTORIA AND GOLIAD COUNTIES (WITH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED COUNTIES IN MODERATE DROUGHT). HOWEVER...SOME
IMPROVEMENT OCCURRED IN CALHOUN COUNTY....SINCE NO PART OF CALHOUN
COUNTY IS IN SEVERE DROUGHT STATUS (ALL OF THE COUNTY IS IN
MODERATE DROUGHT). ALSO...ONLY A SMALL PART OF NORTHERN BEE COUNTY
IS STILL IN MODERATE DROUGHT (THE REMAINDER OF THE COUNTY IS
EITHER ABNORMALLY DRY OR DROUGHT-FREE). FINALLY...ABNORMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS WERE ELIMINATED IN SAN PATRICIO AND NUECES
COUNTIES...AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BEE...REFUGIO AND ARANSAS
COUNTIES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE OBSERVED IN THE DROUGHT
MONITOR PRODUCT ELSEWHERE OVER THE HSA.

FOR A MORE PRECISE EVALUATION OF THE CURRENT DROUGHT MONITOR
PRODUCT SHOWING DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH TEXAS (AND ALL OF
TEXAS)...GO TO THE CORPUS CHRISTI DROUGHT SITE (LOWER CASE):

HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/CRP/?N=DROUGHT


SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

STATE AND LOCAL ACTIONS.
BEE AND GOLIAD COUNTIES REMAIN IN BURN BANS...ACCORDING TO THE
TEXAS FOREST SERVICE BURN BAN MAP OF DECEMBER 22. THUS...THERE
HAVE BEEN NO CHANGES...AND NO OTHER COUNTIES HAVE BURN BANS AT
THIS TIME.

RESIDENTS PLANNING ON BURNING SHOULD CONTACT COUNTY OFFICIALS TO
ENSURE THAT BURNING IS ALLOWED...AND ALSO TO SEE IF ANY
RESTRICTIONS ON HOW AND WHEN TO BURN ARE IN EFFECT. IF BURNING IS
ALLOWED...BE SURE IT IS NOT DONE DURING WINDY DAYS WITH LOW
HUMIDITY...AS THIS COULD RESULT IN A FIRE WHICH COULD EASILY GET
OUT OF CONTROL.

RESERVOIR LEVELS CONTINUE TO FALL AT CHOKE CANYON AND LAKE CORPUS
CHRISTI DUE TO THE LACK OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND RUNOFF. STILL...THE
COMBINED SYSTEM CAPACITY OF THE CORPUS CHRISTI RESERVOIRS REMAINS
JUST ABOVE 30 PERCENT. THUS...THE CITY OF CORPUS CHRISTI REMAINS
UNDER STAGE 2 WATER RESTRICTIONS. SOME STAGE 2 RESTRICTIONS ARE...

* ONE WATERING DAY PER WEEK COINCIDING WITH THE CUSTOMER`S GARBAGE
  PICK UP DAY. RESTRICTIONS FOR CORPUS CHRISTI RESIDENTS
  INCLUDE...

  - WATERING OF LANDSCAPES BY SPRINKLER IRRIGATION IS NOT ALLOWED
    BETWEEN 10 AM AND 6 PM. USE OF HAND-HELD BUCKET OR HOSE...OR
    DRIP IRRIGATION SYSTEM WITH SHUTOFF NOZZLES PERMITTED ANY TIME
    ON ANY DAY.

  - HOME CAR WASHINGS ARE TO BE DONE ONLY BY USE OF HAND-HELD
    BUCKET OR HOSE EQUIPPED WITH SHUTOFF NOZZLE. USE OF COMMERCIAL
    CAR WASHES STILL ALLOWED ANY TIME.

  - FILLING POOLS LIMITED TO DESIGNATED WATERING DAY.

  - MAINTAINING INTEGRITY OF BUILDING FOUNDATION BY USE OF DRIP
    IRRIGATION OR HAND HELD HOSE ONLY.

  - USE OF POTABLE WATER FOR IRRIGATION OF GOLF COURSES IS LIMITED
    TO DESIGNATED WATERING DAY.

THE COMBINED CAPACITY COULD FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT WITHIN THE NEXT
FEW WEEKS. WHEN THIS HAPPENS...THE CITY OF CORPUS CHRISTI WILL
RESORT TO STAGE 3 WATER RESTRICTIONS (WHICH ARE EVEN MORE
STRINGENT).

RESIDENTS AND BUSINESSES NOT COMPLYING WITH RESTRICTIONS WILL
RECEIVE A FINE UP TO 500 DOLLARS. MORE INFORMATION CONCERNING ALL
STAGES OF WATER RESTRICTIONS (AND REQUESTS FOR EXEMPTIONS AND
VARIANCES) CAN BE FOUND AT: WWW.CCTEXAS.COM/GOVERNMENT/WATER.

SIMILAR WATER RESTRICTIONS HAVE BEEN INSTITUTED FOR THE CITY OF
PORTLAND THAT ARE IN EFFECT FOR CORPUS CHRISTI.

ADDITIONAL MINOR DIFFERENCES ARE OBSERVED AT PORTLAND AND
INGLESIDE. FOR MORE INFORMATION FOR THESE LOCATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT:

HTTP://PORTLANDTX.COM
HTTP://INGLESIDETX.GOV

THE CITY OF VICTORIA REMAINS IN STAGE I (VOLUNTARY) WATER
RESTRICTIONS. MORE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.VICTORIATX.ORG.

THE CITY OF LAREDO ALSO REMAINS UNDER VOLUNTARY WATER
RESTRICTIONS...ASKING RESIDENTS TO CONSERVE WATER BUT ALLOW
WATERING AT ANY TIME.

OTHER RESIDENTS IN SOUTH TEXAS ARE STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO
CONTINUE TO CONSERVE WATER. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS NO LONGER ARE
SUFFERING DROUGHT CONDITIONS...MANY RESERVOIRS REMAIN VERY LOW.
WITH GRASSES ESSENTIALLY DORMANT...WATERING SHOULD BE DONE ONLY TO
KEEP SOIL MOISTURE INTACT. ALSO...ONLY WATER IF RAINFALL HAS NOT
BEEN RECEIVED FOR A COUPLE OF WEEKS.

ALSO...RESIDENTS WITH SPRINKLER SYSTEMS SHOULD MONITOR THEIR
WATERING TO ENSURE THEIR SYSTEM IS WATERING THE LAWN AND NOT THE
SIDEWALK OR STREET. ALSO...USE A SPRINKLER WHICH MAKES LARGER
WATER DROPLETS...AND AVOID WATERING ON WINDY DAYS. FINALLY...TURN
SOAKER HOSES SO THAT THE HOLES ARE ON THE BOTTOM...FACING THE
GRASS.

RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN INFORMED ON ANY WATER RESTRICTIONS WHICH
MAY BE IMPOSED FOR THEIR LOCATION...AS ANY VIOLATIONS CAN RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT FINES. MORE INFORMATION ON HOW TO CONSERVE WATER
(AND DROUGHT CONTINGENCY PLANS) IS FOUND ON THE CITY WEBSITES
LISTED EARLIER OR AT THE END OF THIS STATEMENT.

ADDITIONAL LOCATIONS WITHIN THE HSA HAVE MAINTAINED EITHER
MANDATORY OR VOLUNTARY RESTRICTIONS ON THEIR LOCAL PUBLIC WATER
SYSTEMS (PWS). A LIST OF LOCATIONS WITHIN THE HSA WHICH HAVE
WATER RESTRICTIONS CAN BE FOUND AT:
WWW.TCEQ.TEXAS.GOV/DRINKINATER/TROT/LOCATION.HTML

RESIDENTS CAN ALSO CHECK WITH THEIR LOCAL OFFICIALS OR MEDIA WHETHER
WATER RESTRICTIONS FOR THEIR LOCALE HAVE BEEN ADDED...REMOVED...OR
AMENDED.


AGRICULTURAL AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS.
THE LATEST SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALY MAP VALID ON DECEMBER 31 SHOWS
NEAR NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE (+20 MM TO -20 MM) OVER NEARLY ALL OF
THE HSA...INCLUDING AREAS IN DROUGHT OR ABNORMALLY DRY. MOST OF
THE SOUTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL BEND HAVE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE (+20 MM TO +40 MM).

SOIL MOISTURE PERCENTILES SHOW NEAR NORMAL VALUES (30 TO 70
PERCENT) OVER ALL OF THE HSA IN DROUGHT OR ABNORMALLY DRY.
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PERCENTILES (70 TO 80 PERCENT) EXIST OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE HSA. CROP MOISTURE INDICES (VALID
FOR THE WEEK ENDING DECEMBER 27 2014)...SHOW SLIGHTLY
DRY/FAVORABLY MOIST CONDITIONS (-0.9 TO +0.9) OVER NEARLY ALL OF
THE HSA...WITH ABNORMALLY MOIST VALUES (+1.0 TO +1.9) OVER CALHOUN
AND VICTORIA COUNTIES (MAINLY DUE TO CONDITIONS IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS
OUTSIDE THIS HSA).

IN A RECENT STORY ON ABCNEWS ONLINE (ABCNEWSONLINE.COM)...GOV.
RICK PERRY EXTENDED THE DROUGHT EMERGENCY FOR TEXAS AS THE
ONGOING DROUGHT CONTINUED TO THREATEN WATER SUPPLIES...PUBLIC
HEALTH...PROPERTY AND THE ECONOMY. THE DROUGHT EMERGENCY WAS FOR
MORE THAN 200 COUNTIES ACROSS THE STATE. THE DECLARATION
AUTHORIZES NEEDED MEASURES TO GUARD PUBLIC HEALTH...PROPERTY AND
THE ECONOMY IN DROUGHT-STRICKEN PARTS OF TEXAS.

IN A STORY FROM THE SALINA JOURNAL (WWW.SALINA.COM) YEARS LONG
DROUGHT CONTINUED TO HURT TEXAS RANCHERS WHO HAVE LOOKED AT
INVENTIVE WAYS TO SUPPLEMENT THEIR INCOME. SOME HAVE OPENED UP
THEIR PASTURES TO HUNTING AND OTHERS HAVE SOLD WATER TO OIL
COMPANIES AND DESERT PLANTS AND MISTLETOE TO NURSERIES. SOMETIMES
RANCHERS TAKE A FULL-TIME JOB TO BRING IN A LITTLE EXTRA MONEY.

IN AN ARTICLE FROM AGRI-LIFE TODAY (WWW.AGRILIFE.ORG)...DEPENDING
UPON THE WEATHER AND CONSUMER TOLERANCE FOR HIGH PRICES...2015
COULD BE A MAKE-IT OR BREAK-IT YEAR FOR BEEF PRODUCERS...ACCORDING
TO A TEXAS A&M AGRI-LIFE EXTENSION SERVICE EXPERT. THE COST OF
REPLACEMENT HEIFERS AND COW/CALF PAIRS CONTINUED TO BREAK ALL
HISTORICAL RECORDS DURING THE FALL AS PRODUCERS SOUGHT TO REBUILD
HERDS. REPLACEMENT COW PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO LEVEL OUT DURING THE
WINTER...BUT THEN CLIMB HIGHER WITH SPRING GREEN-UP. IT`S ALL
ABOUT SUPPLY AND DEMAND...SAID THE AGRI LIFE EXTENSION ECONOMIST.
IN TEXAS AND THE REST OF THE U.S...COW INVENTORY NUMBERS ARE
DOWN...LARGELY DUE TO RECENT DROUGHT EPISODES. THIS MEANS CALF
SUPPLIES ARE DOWN AS WELL. AS MANY PARTS OF TEXAS HAVE COME OR
SEEM TO HAVE BEGUN TO COME OUT OF THE DROUGHT...LIVESTOCK
PRODUCERS ARE AVID ABOUT REBUILDING HERDS OR AT LEAST HAVING
STOCKER CALVES TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF AVAILABLE WINTER WHEAT
GRAZING. ALL IN ALL...THIS MEANS PRODUCERS ARE SEEING SOME
EXTRAORDINARY PRICES AT THE SALE BARN.

IN AN ARTICLE FROM AGRI-LIFE TODAY...THERE IS A LOT OF EVIDENCE...
AT LEAST IN TEXAS...THAT PRODUCERS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO
REBUILD HERDS AS LARGE PARTS OF THE STATE MOVE OUT OF THE DROUGHT.
BUT REBUILDING CONTINUES TO BE AN EXPENSIVE PROPOSITION. ACCORDING
TO ONE EXPERT...HE EXPECTS THE HIGH REPLACEMENT PRICES TO CONTINUE
TO BE STABLE AS COLDER WEATHER SETS IN. PRODUCERS MAY HOLD BACK
DURING THE WINTER AS THEY DO NOT WANT TO BRING MORE FEMALES IN
UNTIL THEY SEE WHAT THE WEATHER AND FORAGE SUPPLIES ARE GOING TO
BE. BUT COME SPRING...WHEN THINGS START TO GREEN UP AGAIN...
CHANCES ARE THAT THERE WILL BE ANOTHER RUN UP ON THESE FEMALES. AT
SOME POINT...CATTLE WILL BE STOCKED UP AGAIN AND PRICES WILL GO
DOWN...BUT THE EXPERT DOES NOT SEE THAT HAPPENING AT LEAST UNTIL
THE FALL OF 2015.

IN THE COASTAL BEND AREA...OPTIMISM IS ALSO HIGH...AND PRODUCERS
ARE REBUILDING HERDS TOO. BUT THE DIFFERENT CLIMATE AND BREEDS
OF CATTLE AFFECT PRODUCER DECISIONS ABOUT REBUILDING. FIRST...
COW/CALF PAIRS ARE CONSIDERABLY CHEAPER THAN IN OTHER PARTS OF THE
STATE...AS CALVES HAVE TO BE SHIPPED CONSIDERABLY FARTHER NORTH TO
THE FEEDLOT AREAS. ALSO...THEY DO NOT GRADE AS WELL AND TOLERATE
THE WINTER COLD UP NORTH AS WELL AS THE CROSSES USED IN CENTRAL
AND NORTH TEXAS. ANOTHER REASON SOUTH TEXAS CALVES ARE CHEAPER IS
THAT STOCKER CATTLE ARE NOT COMMON IN THE AREA BECAUSE THERE IS
NOT MUCH WINTER WHEAT GROWN FOR GRAZING...AND PASTURES ARE NOT
SUITABLE. ALTHOUGH PRICES ARE HISTORICALLY HIGH FOR THE
AREA....MANY PRODUCERS ARE RESISTING THE TEMPTATION TO TAKE
REPLACEMENT HEIFERS AND COWS TO THE SALE BARN FOR QUICK MONEY.
STILL...WITH HIGH CALF PRICES LIKELY TO STAY HIGH FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT FEW YEARS...RANCHERS COULD EASILY PAY OFF THE INVESTMENT
IN A YOUNG PAIR IN TWO OR THREE YEARS (ACCORDING TO ONE EXPERT).

TEXAS CROP AND WEATHER REPORTS FOR THE COASTAL BEND AND WESTERN
AREAS WERE NOT AVAILABLE DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...DUE TO
LIMITED FIELD ACTIVITY.


FIRE DANGER HAZARDS.
ACCORDING TO THE 5 DAY AVERAGE FIRE DANGER MAP FROM THE TEXAS
INTER-AGENCY COORDINATION CENTER (TICC) ON DECEMBER 31...THERE IS
A LOW FIRE DANGER OVER NEARLY ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS (MOST OF ARANSAS
COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF REFUGIO AND CALHOUN COUNTIES ARE IN A
MODERATE FIRE DANGER). THE FIRE DANGER REMAINS LOW DUE TO RECENT
RAINFALL (ALBEIT LIGHT)...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...HIGH HUMIDITY
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICES REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE ACROSS NEARLY
ALL OF THE HSA...WITH LITTLE CHANGE OBSERVED DURING THE PAST
MONTH. ONLY LA SALLE AND MCMULLEN COUNTIES HAD A COUNTY AVERAGE
KBDI VALUE ABOVE 400. AS OF JANUARY 1 2015...THE FOLLOWING KBDI
COUNTY AVERAGES WERE OBSERVED:

 0 TO 200: CALHOUN...REFUGIO...ARANSAS...SAN PATRICIO...AND
           NUECES COUNTIES.

200 TO 300: WEBB...KLEBERG...JIM WELLS...DUVAL...VICTORIA AND
            LIVE OAK COUNTIES.

300 TO 400: BEE AND GOLIAD COUNTIES.

400 TO 500: LA SALLE AND MCMULLEN COUNTIES.

500 TO 600: NONE.

600 TO 700: NONE.

700 TO 800: NONE.

HOPEFULLY...EXPECTED ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW
MONTHS WILL KEEP KBDI VALUES LOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL WEEKS.


CLIMATE SUMMARY...
AS STATED IN THE SYNOPSIS...RAINFALL DURING DECEMBER WAS NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE HSA...WITH
BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY. MOST OF
LA SALLE AND MCMULLEN COUNTIES SAW LESS THAN 1 INCH OF
PRECIPITATION DURING DECEMBER (WHERE THE AVERAGE MONTHLY RAINFALL
FOR DECEMBER IS BETWEEN 1 AND 1 1/2 INCHES). HOWEVER...SOME OF
THESE LOCATIONS SAW NO MORE THAN 25 PERCENT OF THEIR NORMAL
RAINFALL FOR THE MONTH. ON THE OTHER HAND...PORTIONS OF JIM
WELLS...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...NUECES AND ESSENTIALLY ALL OF
CALHOUN COUNTIES SAW 150 PERCENT OR MORE NORMAL RAINFALL DURING
DECEMBER. MUCH OF CALHOUN COUNTY SAW BETWEEN 3 AND 5 INCHES OF
RAIN DURING THE MONTH (WHICH HELPS EXPLAIN WHY DROUGHT CONDITIONS
EASED IN CALHOUN COUNTY).

FOR 2014...NEARLY ALL OF THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF SOUTH TEXAS SAW
ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL...WITH PORTIONS OF JIM WELLS...DUVAL AND
WEBB COUNTIES...AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF NUECES AND KLEBERG
COUNTIES...SEEING MORE THAN 125 PERCENT OF THEIR NORMAL RAINFALL
DURING 2014. ON THE OTHER HAND...MOST OF THE NORTHERN COUNTIES IN
THE HSA SAW BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL (EXCEPT FOR LIVE OAK COUNTY
WHICH HAD SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL). MOST OF BEE...VICTORIA
AND GOLIAD COUNTIES SAW NO MORE THAN 75 PERCENT OF THEIR NORMAL
RAINFALL DURING THE YEAR. IT WAS EVEN WORSE IN PORTIONS OF LA
SALLE AND MCMULLEN COUNTIES (ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS)...WHERE
MANY AREAS SAW NO MORE THAN ABOUT 75 PERCENT OF THEIR NORMAL
YEARLY RAINFALL.

THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWS THE TOTAL MONTHLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FOR DECEMBER...FOR 2014...AND THE FOR THE 2015 WATER YEAR WHICH
BEGAN ON OCTOBER 1 2014. ALL VALUES ARE IN INCHES...RAINFALL
DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL ARE SHOWN IN PARENTHESIS:

                                                  2015 WATER YEAR
                    DECEMBER            2014        10/01/2014 -
                                                    12/31/2014

CORPUS CHRISTI     1.04 (-0.79)    29.36  (-2.40)   9.51 (+2.07)

VICTORIA           2.21 (-0.10)    30.19 (-11.03)   8.58 (-1.61)

LAREDO AIRPORT     0.95 (+0.07)    16.62  (-3.58)   3.24 (-1.04)

FOR THE THREE CLIMATE STATIONS...THE 2014 PERCENTAGE OF NORMAL
RAINFALL ARE: 92.4 PERCENT AT CORPUS CHRISTI...73.2 PERCENT AT
VICTORIA...AND 82.3 PERCENT AT LAREDO.

THE 2015 WATER YEAR PERCENTAGES THROUGH THE END OF DECEMBER 2014
ARE: 127.8 PERCENT AT CORPUS CHRISTI...84.2 PERCENT AT VICTORIA...
AND 75.7 PERCENT AT LAREDO.

THERE WAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN THE EL-NINO OUTLOOK DURING
DECEMBER. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) STILL HAS AN EL-NINO
WATCH IN EFFECT. CPC ALSO CONTINUES TO FORECAST A 65 PERCENT
CHANCE OF EL-NINO CONDITIONS BEING PRESENT DURING THE NORTHERN
HEMISPHERE WINTER...AND TO CONTINUE INTO THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC
SPRING OF 2015. HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT NECESSARILY MEAN THAT A
FULL-BLOWN EL-NINO WILL OCCUR (WHERE ABNORMALLY WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES +0.5 DEGREES CELSIUS OR HIGHER WILL BE PRESENT DURING
THREE CONSECUTIVE THREE MONTH INTERVALS). IF A TRUE EL-NINO DOES
OCCUR...IT WOULD BE A WEAK ONE.

THE OCEANIC NINO INDEX (ONI) IS BASED ON SST DEPARTURES FROM
AVERAGES IN THE NINO 3.4 REGION...AND IS THE PRINCIPAL MEASURE FOR
MONITORING...ASSESSING AND PREDICTING ENSO. THE MOST RECENT ONI
VALUE (SEPTEMBER 2014 - NOVEMBER 2014) WAS +0.5 DEGREES CELSIUS.
THUS...THE FIRST THREE MONTH INTERVAL FOR AN OFFICIAL EL-NINO HAS
BEGUN...WITH AT LEAST TWO MORE THREE MONTH INTERVALS NEEDED FOR AN
EL-NINO EVENT TO BECOME OFFICIAL.


PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS...
THE RAINFALL FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS (JANUARY 2 THROUGH
JANUARY 8 2015) IS AS FOLLOWS. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM
WEST TO EAST BY SATURDAY EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BETWEEN 1/4 AND 1/2 INCH OVER
AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 37...WITH LOWER AVERAGE AMOUNTS
FARTHER WEST. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
NEXT THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS (JANUARY 2
THROUGH JANUARY 8 2015) IS AS FOLLOWS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSEST TO
NORMAL ON SATURDAY JANUARY 3 BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS LATER IN THE WEEKEND.

THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK...VALID FOR THE PERIOD JANUARY 9 THROUGH
JANUARY 15 2015...CALLS FOR GREATER PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL OVER THE ENTIRE HSA.

THE JANUARY 2015 TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL OUTLOOK...ISSUED ON
DECEMBER 31...CALLS FOR A GREATER CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS.

THE THREE MONTH RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS FOR JANUARY
2015 THROUGH MARCH 2015 SHOWS A GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR ABOVE
NORMAL RAINFALL AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER ALL OF SOUTH
TEXAS.

THE JANUARY 2015 DROUGHT OUTLOOK...ISSUED ON DECEMBER 31...CALLS
FOR THE DROUGHT TO BE REMOVED...OR AT LEAST ALLEVIATED...OVER THE
DROUGHT-STRICKEN AREAS...WITH MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS LIKELY
REMAINING OVER THE ON-GOING SEVERE DROUGHT AREAS OVER SOUTH TEXAS.
THE DROUGHT IS NOT FORECAST TO SPREAD ELSEWHERE INTO OTHER AREAS
OF THE HSA.

SIMILARLY...THE SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK...VALID THROUGH MARCH 31
2015 (AND ISSUED ON DECEMBER 18 2014)...CALLS FOR DROUGHT
REMOVAL LIKELY OVER THE MODERATE DROUGHT STRICKEN AREAS...WITH THE
DROUGHT POSSIBLY REMAINING (BUT CONDITIONS IMPROVING) OVER THE
SEVERE DROUGHT AREAS (NORTHERN VICTORIA AND GOLIAD COUNTIES).
THERE IS NO MENTION OF DROUGHT RE-DEVELOPING FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE HSA.

THE LAGGED SOIL MOISTURE OUTLOOK VALID THROUGH THE END OF
MARCH 2015 CALLS FOR NEAR NORMAL SOIL CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE HSA...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SOIL CONDITIONS
OVER THE EASTERN AREAS (GENERALLY NEAR AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281).


HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
DUE TO THE LACK OF HEAVY RAINFALL SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE RUNOFF...
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO RIVER CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH TEXAS
DURING THE PAST FEW WEEKS. ALTHOUGH WATER USAGE HAS DIMINISHED
DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF MONTHS (AS COOLER WEATHER HAS DIMINISHED
DEMAND)...CHOKE CANYON AND LAKE CORPUS CHRISTI LEVELS CONTINUE TO
FALL.

ACCORDING TO THE USGS STREAMFLOW MAP ON JANUARY 1 2015...SEVERAL
RIVER AND CREEK LEVELS ARE BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
HSA. LEVELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ON THE
GUADALUPE RIVER...COLETO CREEK...MISSION RIVER...AND THE FRIO AND
NUECES RIVERS WEST OF CHOKE CANYON DAM. ONLY THE NUECES RIVER
BELOW THREE RIVERS...ALONG WITH THE ARANSAS RIVER AND OSO CREEK
HAVE NEAR NORMAL FLOWS. FLOWS ARE RUNNING NEAR NORMAL ON THE RIO
GRANDE AT THE COLUMBIA BRIDGE AND LAREDO.

AFTER PEAKING ABOVE 6.5 FEET (754 CFS) ON DECEMBER 21...FLOWS ON
THE GUADALUPE RIVER AT VICTORIA HAVE FALLEN BACK TO BETWEEN 5.0
FEET (322 CFS) AND 5.5 FEET (437 CFS). THE CITY OF VICTORIA CAN
OBTAIN ITS WATER FROM THE RIVER WHEN FLOWS ARE ABOVE 150 CFS
(ABOUT 4.2 FEET).

THE RESERVOIR LEVELS FOR THE CORPUS CHRISTI WATER SUPPLY ARE AS
FOLLOWS. AS OF JANUARY 1 2015...THE LEVEL AT CHOKE CANYON DAM
WAS AT 192.2 FEET (25.0 PERCENT CAPACITY)...WITH LAKE CORPUS
CHRISTI AT 85.9 FEET (48.3 PERCENT CAPACITY). THE COMBINED SYSTEM
CAPACITY WAS AT 31.3 PERCENT...WHICH IS 0.7 PERCENTAGE POINTS
LOWER THAN ON DECEMBER 6 2014.

HOWEVER...LAKE TEXANA ROSE 0.8 FEET SINCE EARLY DECEMBER...WITH
THE LEVEL AT 40.5 FEET (80.8 PERCENT CAPACITY).

AS OF JANUARY 1...THE LEVEL AT COLETO CREEK WAS 92.98 FEET...
WHICH IS 0.28 FEET LOWER THAN DECEMBER 6.

CANYON DAM FELL ANOTHER 0.33 FEET SINCE DECEMBER 6...WITH THE
CURRENT LEVEL AT 896.65 FEET (75 PERCENT CAPACITY).

THE LEVEL AT LAKE AMISTAD CONTINUES TO RISE (WATER OWED BY MEXICO
RETURNED TO THE U.S.). SINCE DECEMBER 6...THE LEVEL AT LAKE AMISTAD
ROSE 0.63 FEET TO TO 1087.60 FEET (52 PERCENT).

WHILE ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTHS
DUE TO EL-NINO LIKE CONDITIONS...SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION
RECEIVED WILL BE NON-CONVECTIVE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST
MONTH OF 2015. PERHAPS FEBRUARY AND MARCH WILL PROVIDE MORE
CONVECTIVE RAINFALL EVENTS...SOME WHICH MAY PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING. WITH ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL PROJECTED
FOR SOUTH TEXAS INTO THE SPRING OF 2015...HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING
SUFFICIENT RUN OFF TO HELP RECHARGE RESERVOIRS COULD OCCUR.
STILL...THE CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER THE MAJOR RIVER
BASINS (LIKE THE GUADALUPE RIVER BASIN) WITHIN THE HSA ARE LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT. THUS...SIGNIFICANT RESERVOIR RECHARGE REMAINS
UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS (AT LEAST INTO THE FIRST
WEEK OF SPRING).


NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED IN EARLY
FEBRUARY 2015.

RELATED WEB SITES...
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI DROUGHT PAGE:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/CRP/?N=DROUGHT

ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS)...
HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR (INCLUDES DROUGHT AND SOIL MOISTURE
OUTLOOKS...DROUGHT ARCHIVES AND TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL OUTLOOKS)...
HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/MONITOR.HTML

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR (INCLUDES ONLY TEXAS)...
HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM_STATE.HTM?TX,S

U.S. DROUGHT PORTAL...
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.GOV

TEXAS DROUGHT MONITORING SITE...
HTTP://WWW.TXWIN.NET/MONITORING/METEOROLOGICAL/DROUGHT/INDICES.HTM

NOAA DROUGHT PAGE...
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV

DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER...
HTTP://DROUGHTREPORTER.UNL.EDU/

TEXAS WATER DEVELOPMENT BOARD DROUGHT WEBSITE
HTTP://WWW.WATERDATAFORTEXAS.ORG/DROUGHT/

VEGETATION DROUGHT RESPONSE INDEX
HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU.VEGDRI/VEGDRI_MAIN.HTM?EV

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER...
HTTP://WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEX (SPI)...
HTTP://WWW.WRCC.DRI.EDU/SPI/SPI.HTML

AGNEWS: TEXAS A & M AGRICULTURAL PROGRAM (CROP AND WEATHER REPORT)...
HTTP://TODAY.AGRILIFE.ORG

TEXAS INTERAGENCY COORDINATION CENTER (TICC)...
HTTP://WWW.TAMU.EDU/TICC/

TEXAS BURN BANS...HTTP://TFSFRP.TAMU.EDU/WILDFIRES/DECBAN.PNG

TEXAS KBDI...HTTP://WEBGIS.TAMU.EDU/TFS/KBDI_DAILY/KBDICOUNTY.PNG

TEXAS COMMISSION ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY (WATER RESTRICTIONS):
WWW.TCEQ.TEXAS.GOV/DRINKINATER/TROT/LOCATION.HTML

CORPUS CHRISTI WATER DEPARTMENT...
WWW.CCTEXAS.COM/GOVERNMENT/WATER

CORPUS CHRISTI WATER CONSERVATION
WWW.CCTEXAS.COM/ASSETS/DEPARTMENTS/WATER/FILES/WATERCONSERVATIONPLAN.PDF

VICTORIA WATER CONSERVATION:
WWW.VICTORIATX.ORG/PIO/PDFS/WATERSAVINGMETHODS.PDF

LAREDO WATER RESTRICTIONS AND CONSERVATION...
WWW.CI.LAREDO.TX.US/UTILITIES05/ORDINANCE/2009_ORDINANCE.PDF

CITY OF VICTORIA WEB SITE...WWW.VICTORIATX.ORG

CITY OF LAREDO WEB SITE...WWW.CI.LAREDO.TX.US

CITY OF PORTLAND WEB SITE...WWW.PORTLANDTX.COM

TEXAS CROP AND WEATHER REPORTS...WWW.TODAY.AGRILIFE.ORG

ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION...
NWS...HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/
USGS...HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/
IBWC...HTTP://IBWC.STATE.GOV/

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE USDA...STATE
AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT
MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED
FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION
SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION
STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
426 PINSON DRIVE
CORPUS CHRISTI TX 78406
PHONE: 361-289-0959
SR-CRP.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

$$

GW










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