Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
516 AM CST MON FEB 2 2015

...A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN SOME DROUGHT-STRICKEN AREAS IN SOUTH
TEXAS DURING JANUARY...

...ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR BY APRIL MEANING
ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL LESS LIKELY OVER SOUTH TEXAS...


.SYNOPSIS...
RAINFALL SURPLUSES AND DEFICITS VARIED OVER SOUTH TEXAS DURING
JANUARY 2015. MOST OF THE NORTHERN PORTIONS AND COASTAL REGIONS OF
THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA (HSA) SAW NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
RAINFALL DURING THE MONTH...WHILE MUCH OF THE WESTERN COASTAL BEND
AND SOUTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY SAW BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. MOST
OF THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS AREA SAW
BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL DURING THE MONTH...WHICH IS
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 100 AND 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL JANUARY RAINFALL.
THIS HELPED TO ALLEVIATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER THOSE PORTIONS OF
THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA (HSA). HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND WESTERN COASTAL BEND SAW RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BELOW 1 INCH (LESS THAN 75 PERCENT OF NORMAL RAINFALL).
SINCE THESE AREAS SAW ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF 2014...NO
DROUGHT CONDITIONS DEVELOPED OVER THESE AREAS.

UNFORTUNATELY...IT LOOKS AS IF A SUSTAINED EL-NINO OVER THE
EQUATORIAL PACIFIC DURING THE NEXT FEW MONTHS IS UNLIKELY.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE (50% TO 60%) THAT A BRIEF EL-NINO
EPISODE MAY OCCUR BEFORE MARCH...ENSO-NEUTRAL (EL-NINO/SOUTHERN
OSCILLATION) CONDITIONS ARE MORE LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE SPRING AND
THROUGH THE UPCOMING SUMMER. AS A RESULT...THE FORECAST FOR ABOVE
NORMAL RAINFALL IN THE UPCOMING MONTHS IS BECOMING LESS PROMISING.

ACCORDING TO THE DROUGHT MONITOR PRODUCT...VALID ON JANUARY 27
2015...DROUGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA AREA. FOR VICTORIA
COUNTY...SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE SHRUNK TO ONLY A VERY
SMALL PORTION OF NORTHWESTERN VICTORIA COUNTY...AND CONTINUE ONLY
OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF GOLIAD COUNTY. ALSO...MUCH
OF SOUTHERN CALHOUN COUNTY IS NO LONGER IN MODERATE DROUGHT...BUT
IS ABNORMALLY DRY.

IN SHORT...WHILE SOME MINOR IMPROVEMENTS WERE OBSERVED IN DROUGHT
CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH TEXAS...MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS
ARE STILL PRESENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND
MOST OF THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS AREA. ALSO...ABNORMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS STILL EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
HSA WHICH ARE NOT IN DROUGHT.

FOR A MORE PRECISE EVALUATION OF THE CURRENT DROUGHT MONITOR
PRODUCT SHOWING DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH TEXAS (AND ALL OF
TEXAS)...GO TO THE CORPUS CHRISTI DROUGHT SITE (LOWER CASE):

HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/CRP/?N=DROUGHT

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...


STATE AND LOCAL ACTIONS.
BEE AND GOLIAD COUNTIES REMAIN IN BURN BANS...ACCORDING TO THE
TEXAS FOREST SERVICE BURN BAN MAP OF JANUARY 30. THUS...THERE HAVE
BEEN NO CHANGES...AND NO OTHER COUNTIES HAVE BURN BANS AT THIS
TIME.

RESIDENTS PLANNING ON BURNING SHOULD CONTACT COUNTY OFFICIALS TO
ENSURE THAT BURNING IS ALLOWED...AND ALSO TO SEE IF ANY
RESTRICTIONS ON HOW AND WHEN TO BURN ARE IN EFFECT. IF BURNING IS
ALLOWED...BE SURE IT IS NOT DONE DURING WINDY DAYS WITH LOW
HUMIDITY...AS THIS COULD RESULT IN A FIRE WHICH COULD EASILY GET
OUT OF CONTROL.

RESERVOIR LEVELS CONTINUE TO FALL AT CHOKE CANYON AND LAKE CORPUS
CHRISTI DUE TO THE LACK OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND RUNOFF. STILL...THE
COMBINED SYSTEM CAPACITY OF THE CORPUS CHRISTI RESERVOIRS REMAINS
JUST ABOVE 30 PERCENT (30.8 PERCENT AS OF FEBRUARY 1). THUS...THE
CITY OF CORPUS CHRISTI REMAINS UNDER STAGE 2 WATER RESTRICTIONS.
SOME STAGE 2 RESTRICTIONS ARE...

* ONE WATERING DAY PER WEEK COINCIDING WITH THE CUSTOMER`S GARBAGE
  PICK UP DAY. RESTRICTIONS FOR CORPUS CHRISTI RESIDENTS
  INCLUDE...

  - WATERING OF LANDSCAPES BY SPRINKLER IRRIGATION IS NOT ALLOWED
    BETWEEN 10 AM AND 6 PM. USE OF HAND-HELD BUCKET OR HOSE...OR
    DRIP IRRIGATION SYSTEM WITH SHUTOFF NOZZLES PERMITTED ANY TIME
    ON ANY DAY.

  - HOME CAR WASHINGS ARE TO BE DONE ONLY BY USE OF HAND-HELD
    BUCKET OR HOSE EQUIPPED WITH SHUTOFF NOZZLE. USE OF COMMERCIAL
    CAR WASHES STILL ALLOWED ANY TIME.

  - FILLING POOLS LIMITED TO DESIGNATED WATERING DAY.

  - MAINTAINING INTEGRITY OF BUILDING FOUNDATION BY USE OF DRIP
    IRRIGATION OR HAND HELD HOSE ONLY.

  - USE OF POTABLE WATER FOR IRRIGATION OF GOLF COURSES IS LIMITED
    TO DESIGNATED WATERING DAY.

THE COMBINED CAPACITY COULD FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT WITHIN THE NEXT
FEW WEEKS. WHEN THIS HAPPENS...THE CITY OF CORPUS CHRISTI WILL
RESORT TO STAGE 3 WATER RESTRICTIONS (WHICH ARE EVEN MORE STRINGENT).

RESIDENTS AND BUSINESSES NOT COMPLYING WITH RESTRICTIONS WILL
RECEIVE A FINE UP TO 500 DOLLARS. MORE INFORMATION CONCERNING ALL
STAGES OF WATER RESTRICTIONS (AND REQUESTS FOR EXEMPTIONS AND
VARIANCES) CAN BE FOUND AT: WWW.CCTEXAS.COM/GOVERNMENT/WATER.

SIMILAR WATER RESTRICTIONS HAVE BEEN INSTITUTED FOR THE CITY OF
PORTLAND THAT ARE IN EFFECT FOR CORPUS CHRISTI.

ADDITIONAL MINOR DIFFERENCES ARE OBSERVED AT PORTLAND AND
INGLESIDE. FOR MORE INFORMATION FOR THESE LOCATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT:

HTTP://PORTLANDTX.COM
HTTP://INGLESIDETX.GOV

THE CITY OF VICTORIA REMAINS IN STAGE I (VOLUNTARY) WATER
RESTRICTIONS. MORE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.VICTORIATX.ORG.

THE CITY OF LAREDO ALSO REMAINS UNDER VOLUNTARY WATER
RESTRICTIONS...ASKING RESIDENTS TO CONSERVE WATER BUT ALLOW
WATERING AT ANY TIME.

OTHER RESIDENTS IN SOUTH TEXAS ARE STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO
CONTINUE TO CONSERVE WATER. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS NO LONGER ARE
SUFFERING DROUGHT CONDITIONS...MANY RESERVOIRS REMAIN VERY LOW.
WITH GRASSES ESSENTIALLY DORMANT...WATERING SHOULD BE DONE ONLY TO
KEEP SOIL MOISTURE INTACT. ALSO...ONLY WATER IF RAINFALL HAS NOT
BEEN RECEIVED FOR A COUPLE OF WEEKS.

ALSO...RESIDENTS WITH SPRINKLER SYSTEMS SHOULD MONITOR THEIR
WATERING TO ENSURE THEIR SYSTEM IS WATERING THE LAWN AND NOT THE
SIDEWALK OR STREET. ALSO...USE A SPRINKLER WHICH MAKES LARGER
WATER DROPLETS...AND AVOID WATERING ON WINDY DAYS. FINALLY...TURN
SOAKER HOSES SO THAT THE HOLES ARE ON THE BOTTOM...FACING THE
GRASS.

RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN INFORMED ON ANY WATER RESTRICTIONS WHICH
MAY BE IMPOSED FOR THEIR LOCATION...AS ANY VIOLATIONS CAN RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT FINES. MORE INFORMATION ON HOW TO CONSERVE WATER
(AND DROUGHT CONTINGENCY PLANS) IS FOUND ON THE CITY WEBSITES
LISTED EARLIER OR AT THE END OF THIS STATEMENT.

ADDITIONAL LOCATIONS WITHIN THE HSA HAVE MAINTAINED EITHER
MANDATORY OR VOLUNTARY RESTRICTIONS ON THEIR LOCAL PUBLIC WATER
SYSTEMS (PWS). A LIST OF LOCATIONS WITHIN THE HSA WHICH HAVE
WATER RESTRICTIONS CAN BE FOUND AT:
WWW.TCEQ.TEXAS.GOV/DRINKINATER/TROT/LOCATION.HTML

RESIDENTS CAN ALSO CHECK WITH THEIR LOCAL OFFICIALS OR MEDIA
WHETHER WATER RESTRICTIONS FOR THEIR LOCALE HAVE BEEN
ADDED...REMOVED...OR AMENDED.


AGRICULTURAL AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS.
THE LATEST SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALY MAP VALID ON JANUARY 30 SHOWS NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN SOIL MOISTURE DURING THE PAST MONTH.
THUS...NEAR NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE (+20 MM TO -20 MM) OVER NEARLY
ALL OF THE HSA...INCLUDING AREAS IN DROUGHT OR ABNORMALLY DRY.
MOST OF THE SOUTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL BEND
HAVE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE (+20 MM TO +40 MM).

SOIL MOISTURE PERCENTILES (NO NOTABLE CHANGE) SHOW NEAR NORMAL
VALUES (30 TO 70 PERCENT) OVER ALL OF THE HSA IN DROUGHT OR
ABNORMALLY DRY. SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PERCENTILES (70 TO 80
PERCENT) EXIST OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE HSA.

CROP MOISTURE INDICES (VALID FOR THE WEEK ENDING JANUARY
24)...SHOW SLIGHTLY DRY/FAVORABLY MOIST CONDITIONS (-0.9 TO
+0.9) OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE HSA...WITH ABNORMALLY MOIST
VALUES (+1.0 TO +1.9) OVER THE COASTAL BEND (INCLUDING DROUGHT
AREAS). VICTORIA COUNTY IS CONSIDERED WET (+2.0 TO +2.9)...SINCE
IT IS IN THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS AGRICULTURAL DISTRICT.

IN A RECENT ARTICLE FROM THE EL-PASO TIMES...MOST OF TEXAS HAS
EMERGED FROM A DROUGHT THAT STARTED IN EARLY 2011...BUT THE
AMOUNTS OF WATER STORED IN THE GROUND ARE STILL GREATLY BELOW
NORMAL...SCIENTISTS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS AT AUSTIN SAID LAST
WEEK. THE ANALYSIS OF SATELLITE DATA INDICATED THAT THE STATE LOST
84 MILLION ACRE-FEET OF WATER DURING THE PEAK OF THE DROUGHT...BUT
HAD ONLY RECOVERED ABOUT 10 PERCENT AS OF EARLIER THIS MONTH. THE
LOSSES MIGHT COME AS DISTURBING NEWS TO TEXAS POLICYMAKERS WHO
HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO FIND WAYS TO ENSURE AN ADEQUATE WATER
SUPPLY IN THE NATION`S MOST RAPIDLY GROWING LARGE STATE. MORE
INFORMATION ON THIS CAN BE FOUND AT (LOWER CASE):
HTTP://WWW.ELPASOTIMES.COM/NEWS/CI_27391327/TEXAS-DROUGHT-
DIMINISHES-BUT- ENORMOUS-WATER-LOSS-PERSISTS

IN A RECENT ARTICLE FROM THE SACRAMENTO BEE...THE INTERNAL
REVENUE SERVICE (IRS) HAS EXTENDED THE DEADLINE FOR FARMERS AND
RANCHERS WHO HAD TO SELL LIVESTOCK DURING DROUGHT. THEY NOW HAVE
AN ADDITIONAL YEAR TO REPLACE LIVESTOCK AND DEFER TAX ON ANY GAINS
FROM THE SALES. ORDINARILY...LIVESTOCK MUST BE REPLACED WITHIN A
FOUR-YEAR PERIOD. THE IRS GRANTED A ONE-YEAR EXTENSION. THE IRS
SAID THE EXTENSION GENERALLY APPLIES TO CAPITAL GAINS REALIZED BY
FARMERS AND RANCHERS ON DROUGHT-RELATED SALES OF LIVESTOCK HELD
FOR DRAFT...DAIRY OR BREEDING PURPOSES. SALES OF OTHER
LIVESTOCK...SUCH AS THOSE RAISED FOR SLAUGHTER OR HELD FOR
SPORTING PURPOSES...AND SALES OF POULTRY ARE NOT ELIGIBLE FOR TAX
RELIEF. MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND UNDER THE FARMER`S TAX GUIDE AT
WWW.IRS.GOV.

ALL OF THE STATE RECEIVED MOISTURE IN ONE FORM OR ANOTHER DURING
THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...WHICH GENERALLY BENEFITED FORAGES AND
CROPS...BUT SLOWED FIELDWORK...ACCORDING TO REPORTS FROM TEXAS A&M
AGRI-LIFE EXTENSION SERVICE PERSONNEL. PARTS OF THE CENTRAL...EAST
AND COASTAL BEND AREAS RECEIVED FROM 3 TO 4 INCHES SINCE JANUARY
20...ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. THE TIMING OF THE
RAIN DID MAKE FIELD OPERATIONS DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS...INCLUDING
THE FINISHING OF COTTON HARVEST. "SOME WARM...DRY DAYS PERMITTED
DRYING TO BEGIN...BUT MORE MOISTURE IS IN THE NEAR FUTURE" SAID
ROGELIO MERCADO...AGRI-LIFE EXTENSION AGENT FOR JIM WELLS COUNTY.
"PLANTING SEASON IS PROMISING TO BE PRODUCTIVE IF FARMERS CAN GET
IN THE FIELD TO PLANT. SOME MAY BE BEHIND SCHEDULE IN APPLYING
FERTILIZER AND HERBICIDES," SAID THE AGENT.


THE TEXAS CROP AND WEATHER REPORTS ACCUMULATED DURING JANUARY 2015
PROVIDED THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:

FOR THE COASTAL BEND DISTRICT:

* SOIL MOISTURE WAS GOOD...AND TOPSOILS WERE SATURATED.

* MOST OF JANUARY WAS CLOUDY...COLD AND RAINY...PUTTING
  FIELDWORK AND PREPLANT FERTILIZER APPLICATIONS AT A STANDSTILL.

* MOST WINTER WHEAT PLANTING WAS COMPLETED EXCEPT WHERE FIELDS
  WERE TOO WET TO GET INTO. OATS AND RYEGRASS WINTER PASTURES WERE
  GROWING SLOWLY DUE TO RAINFALL AND EXTENDED CLOUDY WEATHER.

* WINTER GRASSES WERE POISED FOR GOOD GROWTH WHEN THEY GET
  SUNSHINE. VOLUNTEER WINTER FORAGES WERE COMING ALONG NICELY.
  LIVESTOCK PRODUCERS WERE FEEDING HAY AND PROTEIN. MARKETS
  CONTINUED TO BE HIGH.

* THE PECAN HARVEST WAS NEARLY COMPLETED.

FOR THE WESTERN AREAS (CONSIDERED PART OF THE SOUTH DISTRICT):

* IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION...SOIL MOISTURE WAS 40 TO
  100 PERCENT ADEQUATE. FRIO COUNTY CROP PRODUCERS CONTINUED
  PLANTING THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. PRODUCERS FINISHED PLANTING WHEAT
  AND OATS...AND CONTINUED PLANTING POTATOES. RANGELAND AND
  PASTURES IMPROVED WITH THE GROWTH OF WINTER GRASSES...BUT
  PRODUCERS STILL HAD TO STEADILY PROVIDE SUPPLEMENTAL FEED.
  CATTLE BODY CONDITION SCORES REMAINED FAIR.

* LA SALLE COUNTY RECEIVED SO MUCH RAIN THERE WERE AREAS WITH
  STANDING WATER. IN MCMULLEN COUNTY...SOME COW HERDS WERE
  CALVING. SUPPLEMENTAL FEEDING INCREASED IN MCMULLEN AND
  SURROUNDING COUNTIES.

* IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE REGION...CONTINUAL DRIZZLE AND LIGHT
  RAINS RAISED SOIL MOISTURE. DUVAL COUNTY REPORTED 60 PERCENT
  ADEQUATE.

* IN KLEBERG AND KENEDY COUNTIES...GOOD AND CONSTANT
  PRECIPITATION DURING THE LAST 3 TO 4 MONTHS HAS PROVIDED IDEAL
  CONDITIONS FOR THE UPCOMING PLANTING SEASON. SOIL MOISTURE THERE
  WAS GENERALLY 40 TO 100 PERCENT ADEQUATE.

* ALSO IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE REGION...THE LIGHT RAINS
  IMPROVED RANGELAND AND PASTURES THAT WERE DAMAGED DURING THE
  SUMMER DROUGHT. PRODUCERS WERE OPTIMISTIC ABOUT SPRING PLANTING
  SEASON...HOPING SOON TO BE ABLE TO GET INTO FIELDS TO PLANT.
  SOME PRODUCERS WERE BEHIND IN APPLYING FERTILIZER AND
  HERBICIDES.

* JIM WELLS COUNTY ROW CROP PRODUCERS WERE PLANTING.

* IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE REGION...SOIL MOISTURE RANGED FROM 50
  TO 100 PERCENT ADEQUATE. SOME PRODUCERS HAD ALREADY PLANTED
  WINTER OATS. ONIONS...CABBAGE...WHEAT...CARROTS AND OATS WERE
  PROGRESSING WELL.

* WEBB COUNTY RANCHERS REDUCED SUPPLEMENTAL FEEDING AS CATTLE HAD
  GOOD WINTER GRAZING.

* ALSO IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE REGION...PRODUCERS CONTINUED
  PREPARING FIELDS FOR NEXT SEASON`S CROPS. SUPPLEMENTAL FEEDING
  WAS BEING DONE AT LESSER RATES ON MOST RANCHES...AND STOCK-TANK
  WATER LEVELS REMAINED LOWER THAN NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE AREA.


FIRE DANGER HAZARDS.
ACCORDING TO THE 5 DAY AVERAGE FIRE DANGER MAP FROM THE TEXAS
INTER-AGENCY COORDINATION CENTER (TICC) ON JANUARY 31...THERE IS A
MODERATE FIRE DANGER OVER MOST OF THE HSA...WITH A LOW FIRE DANGER
OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS AREA AND NORTHEASTERN COASTAL BEND.
DUE TO WET FUELS AND MODERATE TO MOIST SOILS...THE FIRE DANGER HAS
NOT BEEN HIGH FOR SOME TIME.

KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICES REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE ACROSS NEARLY
ALL OF THE HSA...WITH LITTLE CHANGE OBSERVED DURING THE PAST
MONTH. ONLY LA SALLE COUNTY HAD A COUNTY AVERAGE KBDI VALUE ABOVE
400. AS OF JANUARY 31 2015...THE FOLLOWING KBDI COUNTY AVERAGES
WERE OBSERVED:

  0 TO 200: CALHOUN...VICTORIA...REFUGIO...ARANSAS...SAN
            PATRICIO...AND NUECES COUNTIES.

200 TO 300: KLEBERG...JIM WELLS...DUVAL...WEBB...GOLIAD...BEE AND
            LIVE OAK COUNTIES.

300 TO 400: MCMULLEN COUNTY.

400 TO 500: LA SALLE COUNTY.

500 TO 600: NONE.

600 TO 700: NONE.

700 TO 800: NONE.

KBDI VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF WEEKS DUE TO EXPECTED RAINFALL IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS ALONG WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES MORE THAN LIKELY OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.


CLIMATE SUMMARY...
RAINFALL VARIED OVER SOUTH TEXAS DURING JANUARY. MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA AREA (WHERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS
EXISTED) SAW BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL (WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES). THIS WAS ROUGHLY BETWEEN 100 AND 200
PERCENT OF NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THE MONTH. HOWEVER...RAINFALL
DEFICITS WERE OBSERVED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND
WESTERN COASTAL BEND. THESE LOCATIONS SAW RAINFALL AMOUNTS BELOW 1 INCH
(LESS THAN 75 PERCENT OF NORMAL RAINFALL). HOWEVER...THESE AREAS
HAVE SEEN ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL WHEN LOOKING AT LONGER TIME
FRAMES.

DURING THE LAST 90 DAYS (WHEN ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WERE OBSERVED IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC)...ABOVE
NORMAL RAINFALL HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER NEARLY ALL OF THE HSA. ONLY
A SMALL PORTION OF NORTHWESTERN LA SALLE AND EXTREME NORTHERN WEBB
COUNTIES SAW SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL (ABOUT 90 PERCENT)
DURING THIS 90 DAY PERIOD. DURING THIS TIME (ACCORDING TO THE AHPS
RAINFALL ANALYSIS)...DROUGHT STRICKEN AREAS HAVE RECEIVED BETWEEN
110 AND 125 PERCENT OF THEIR NORMAL RAINFALL. EXTREME SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE HSA HAVE SEEN AROUND 200 PERCENT OF THEIR NORMAL
RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME. THUS...IT IS NOT SURPRISING THAT
DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE SUBSIDED OVER MOST OF THE HSA.


THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWS THE TOTAL MONTHLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FOR JANUARY...SO FAR FOR 2015...AND THE FOR THE 2015 WATER YEAR
WHICH BEGAN ON OCTOBER 1 2014. ALL VALUES ARE IN INCHES...RAINFALL
DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL ARE SHOWN IN PARENTHESIS:

                                                  2015 WATER YEAR
                    JANUARY             2015        10/01/2014 -
                                                    01/31/2015

CORPUS CHRISTI     2.04 (+0.50)     2.04  (+0.50)  11.55 (+2.57)

VICTORIA           3.07 (+0.55)     3.07  (+0.55)  11.65 (-1.06)

LAREDO AIRPORT     0.59 (-0.31)     0.59  (-0.31)   3.83 (-1.35)

FOR THE THREE CLIMATE STATIONS...THE 2015 PERCENTAGE OF NORMAL
RAINFALL ARE:132.5 PERCENT AT CORPUS CHRISTI...121.8 PERCENT AT
VICTORIA...AND 65.6 PERCENT AT LAREDO.

THE 2015 WATER YEAR PERCENTAGES THROUGH THE END OF JANUARY 2015
ARE: 128.6 PERCENT AT CORPUS CHRISTI...91.7 PERCENT AT VICTORIA...
AND 73.9 PERCENT AT LAREDO.

THE PROSPECTS FOR A FULL-SCALE EL-NINO EVENT CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.
UNFORTUNATELY...EQUATORIAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY
BEGUN TO FALL TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
PACIFIC. AT THE END OF JANUARY....THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
(CPC) WAS STILL FORECASTING A 50 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE FOR EL-
NINO CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT TWO MONTHS (THROUGH THE
END OF MARCH). AFTER MARCH HOWEVER...ENSO-NEUTRAL (EL-NINO
SOUTHERN OSCILLATION NEUTRAL) CONDITIONS ARE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR
(DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED COOLER THAN NORMAL WATER
TEMPERATURES). CPC STILL HAS AN EL-NINO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE
EQUATORIAL PACIFIC.

THE OCEANIC NINO INDEX (ONI) IS BASED ON SST DEPARTURES FROM
AVERAGES IN THE NINO 3.4 REGION...AND IS THE PRINCIPAL MEASURE FOR
MONITORING...ASSESSING AND PREDICTING ENSO. THE MOST RECENT ONI
VALUE (OCTOBER 2014 - DECEMBER 2014) WAS +0.7 DEGREES CELSIUS.
THIS IS ABOVE THE +0.5 CELSIUS CRITERION FOR EL-NINO EVENTS. THIS
MAKES THE SECOND THREE MONTH INTERVAL OF EL-NINO TYPE
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER THREE MONTH INTERVAL WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS
TO BECOME AN OFFICIAL EL-NINO EVENT (ABNORMALLY WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES +0.5 DEGREES CELSIUS OR HIGHER NEED TO BE PRESENT
DURING THREE CONSECUTIVE THREE MONTH INTERVALS). IF A TRUE EL-NINO
DOES OCCUR...IT WOULD BE A WEAK ONE.


PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS...
THE RAINFALL FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS (FEBRUARY 2 THROUGH
FEBRUARY 8) IS AS FOLLOWS. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED OVER MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY FEBRUARY 3 THROUGH
WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 4...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FEBRUARY 5
THROUGH FEBRUARY 8. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 1/4 INCH
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE HSA...TO BETWEEN 1/2 AND 3/4
INCH OVER THE COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA AREA.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS (FEBRUARY 2 THROUGH
FEBRUARY 8) IS AS FOLLOWS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW TO BELOW NORMAL FEBRUARY 2 THROUGH FEBRUARY 6...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL ON FEBRUARY 7 AND ABOVE NORMAL
ON FEBRUARY 8.

THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK...VALID FOR THE PERIOD FEBRUARY 9 THROUGH
FEBRUARY 15...CALLS FOR GREATER PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL OVER THE ENTIRE HSA.

THE FEBRUARY 2015 TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL OUTLOOKS...ISSUED ON
JANUARY 31...CALLS FOR EQUAL CHANCES FOR NEAR/ABOVE/BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.

WITH ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS LIKELY DEVELOPING BY LATE
SPRING...THE THREE MONTH RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS FOR
FEBRUARY 2015 THROUGH APRIL 2015 SHOWS AN EQUAL CHANCE FOR
ABOVE/BELOW/NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL...AND A GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...BOTH EXPECTED OVER ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS.

THE FEBRUARY 2015 DROUGHT OUTLOOK...ISSUED ON JANUARY 31...CALLS
FOR DROUGHT CONDITIONS TO PERSIST (IF NOT INTENSIFY) OVER THE
CURRENT DROUGHT AREAS...BUT NOT SPREAD ELSEWHERE OVER THE HSA.

SIMILARLY...THE SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK...VALID THROUGH APRIL 30
(AND ISSUED ON JANUARY 15)...CALLS FOR DROUGHT TO PERSIST AND/OR
INTENSIFY OVER THE SEVERE DROUGHT AREAS VALID ON JANUARY 15. THERE
IS NO MENTION OF DROUGHT RE-DEVELOPING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
HSA.

THE LAGGED SOIL MOISTURE OUTLOOK VALID THROUGH THE END OF APRIL
2015 CALLS FOR NEAR NORMAL SOIL CONDITIONS OVER ESSENTIALLY ALL OF
THE HSA.


HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
ALTHOUGH THERE WERE SOME MINOR RISES OVER THE COASTAL CREEKS AND
OVER THE GUADALUPE RIVER BASIN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
JANUARY...RIVER AND CREEK LEVELS HAVE RETURNED TO NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF THE MONTH. ACCORDING TO THE USGS
STREAMFLOW MAP ON FEBRUARY 2 2015...SEVERAL RIVER AND CREEK LEVELS
ARE BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL OVER THE HSA. LEVELS CONTINUE TO
REMAIN BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ON THE GUADALUPE RIVER...COLETO
CREEK...MISSION RIVER...AND THE FRIO AND NUECES RIVERS WEST OF
CHOKE CANYON DAM. ONLY THE NUECES RIVER BELOW THREE RIVERS...ALONG
WITH THE ARANSAS RIVER...AND SAN FERNANDO AND COPANO CREEKS HAVE
NEAR NORMAL FLOWS. FLOWS ARE RUNNING NEAR NORMAL ON THE RIO
GRANDE AT THE COLUMBIA BRIDGE AND LAREDO.

AFTER PEAKING TO NEAR 13 FEET (AROUND 3800 CFS) ON JANUARY
25...RECENT FLOWS ON THE GUADALUPE RIVER AT VICTORIA HAVE FALLEN
BACK TO AROUND 6.5 FEET (754 CFS). THE CITY OF VICTORIA CAN
OBTAIN ITS WATER FROM THE RIVER WHEN FLOWS ARE ABOVE 150 CFS
(ABOUT 4.2 FEET).

DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE NUECES AND
FRIO RIVER BASINS...RESERVOIR LEVELS AT CHOKE CANYON AND LAKE
CORPUS CHRISTI CONTINUE TO FALL. HOWEVER...SLIGHT RISES WERE
OBSERVED AT LAKE TEXANA...COLETO CREEK...CANYON DAM AND LAKE
AMISTAD. THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWS THE CURRENT AND PREVIOUS LEVELS
AT PERTINENT SOUTH TEXAS RESERVOIRS DURING THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

RESERVOIR      NORMAL   LATEST  PERCENT  PREVIOUS  CHANGE
                POOL     POOL  CAPACITY    POOL     (FT)
CHOKE CANYON    220.5    192.2   24.8     192.2    +0.0
LAKE C. C.       94.0     85.6   47.0      85.9    -0.3
LAKE TEXANA      44.0     42.0   88.8      40.5    +1.5
COLETO CREEK     98.0     93.3   N/A       93.0    +0.3
CANYON DAM      909.0    897.5    77      896.6    +0.9
LAKE AMISTAD   1117.0   1087.8    52     1087.6    +0.2

THE COMBINED SYSTEM CAPACITY FOR THE CORPUS CHRISTI RESERVOIR
SYSTEM AS OF FEBRUARY 1 IS AT 30.8 PERCENT...WHICH IS 0.5
PERCENTAGE POINTS LOWER THAN IN EARLY JANUARY 2015. TO BRING
RESERVOIRS CLOSER TO NORMAL POOL LEVELS BEFORE SUMMER...IT WILL
TAKE A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM (COMBINED WITH RICH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE) TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SUFFICIENT RUN-OFF (LIKELY RESULTING IN FLOODING).
UNFORTUNATELY...ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OR
BE PRESENT BY LATE SPRING...WHICH MEANS A LOWER PROBABILITY OF
ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS.


NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED IN EARLY
MARCH 2015.

RELATED WEB SITES...
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI DROUGHT PAGE:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/CRP/?N=DROUGHT

ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS)...
HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR (INCLUDES DROUGHT AND SOIL MOISTURE
OUTLOOKS...DROUGHT ARCHIVES AND TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL OUTLOOKS)...
HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/MONITOR.HTML

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR (INCLUDES ONLY TEXAS)...
HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM_STATE.HTM?TX,S

U.S. DROUGHT PORTAL...
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.GOV

TEXAS DROUGHT MONITORING SITE...
HTTP://WWW.TXWIN.NET/MONITORING/METEOROLOGICAL/DROUGHT/INDICES.HTM

NOAA DROUGHT PAGE...
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV

DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER...
HTTP://DROUGHTREPORTER.UNL.EDU/

NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER...
HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU

TEXAS WATER DEVELOPMENT BOARD DROUGHT WEBSITE
HTTP://WWW.WATERDATAFORTEXAS.ORG/DROUGHT/

VEGETATION DROUGHT RESPONSE INDEX
HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU.VEGDRI/VEGDRI_MAIN.HTM?EV

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER...
HTTP://WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEX (SPI)...
HTTP://WWW.WRCC.DRI.EDU/SPI/SPI.HTML

AGNEWS: TEXAS A & M AGRICULTURAL PROGRAM (CROP AND WEATHER REPORT)...
HTTP://TODAY.AGRILIFE.ORG

TEXAS INTERAGENCY COORDINATION CENTER (TICC)...
HTTP://WWW.TAMU.EDU/TICC/

TEXAS BURN BANS...HTTP://TFSFRP.TAMU.EDU/WILDFIRES/DECBAN.PNG

TEXAS KBDI...HTTP://WEBGIS.TAMU.EDU/TFS/KBDI_DAILY/KBDICOUNTY.PNG

TEXAS COMMISSION ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY (WATER RESTRICTIONS):
WWW.TCEQ.TEXAS.GOV/DRINKINATER/TROT/LOCATION.HTML

CORPUS CHRISTI WATER DEPARTMENT...
WWW.CCTEXAS.COM/GOVERNMENT/WATER

CORPUS CHRISTI WATER CONSERVATION
WWW.CCTEXAS.COM/ASSETS/DEPARTMENTS/WATER/FILES/WATERCONSERVATIONPLAN.PDF

VICTORIA WATER CONSERVATION:
WWW.VICTORIATX.ORG/PIO/PDFS/WATERSAVINGMETHODS.PDF

LAREDO WATER RESTRICTIONS AND CONSERVATION...
WWW.CI.LAREDO.TX.US/UTILITIES05/ORDINANCE/2009_ORDINANCE.PDF

CITY OF VICTORIA WEB SITE...WWW.VICTORIATX.ORG

CITY OF LAREDO WEB SITE...WWW.CI.LAREDO.TX.US

CITY OF PORTLAND WEB SITE...WWW.PORTLANDTX.COM

TEXAS CROP AND WEATHER REPORTS...WWW.TODAY.AGRILIFE.ORG

ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION...
NWS...HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/
USGS...HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/
IBWC...HTTP://IBWC.STATE.GOV/

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE USDA...STATE
AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT
MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED
FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION
SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION
STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
426 PINSON DRIVE
CORPUS CHRISTI TX 78406
PHONE: 361-289-0959
SR-CRP.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

$$

GW






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