Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
340 PM CST THU DEC 1 2016

...MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF
THE COASTAL BEND AS WELL AS ISOLATED AREAS FARTHER WEST...

...LA NINA ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AS LA NINA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
OVER THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN...

...WEEKEND RAINS COULD BRING DROUGHT RELIEF OVER SOUTH TEXAS...

...LONG TERM OUTLOOK CALLS FOR BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL FOR SOUTH
TEXAS THROUGH THE WINTER SEASON...


.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER SEEING MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
COUNTIES IN EARLY SEPTEMBER...RAINFALL WAS SUFFICIENT TO ELIMINATE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS BY THE END OF SEPTEMBER. IN MOST AREAS...THE
MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS CHANGED TO ABNORMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS.

UNFORTUNATELY...RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 60 DAYS HAS BEEN BELOW
NORMAL OVER NEARLY ALL OF THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA (HSA). MORE
THAN 80 PERCENT OF SOUTH TEXAS HAS RECEIVED LESS THAN 75 PERCENT
OF THEIR NORMAL PRECIPITATION SINCE THE BEGINNING OF OCTOBER. IN
FACT...INLAND PORTIONS OF NUECES AND SAN PATRICIO COUNTIES...AS
WELL AS PORTIONS OF JIM WELLS...AND NORTHWESTERN LA SALLE COUNTIES
HAVE SEEN NO MORE THAN 25 PERCENT OF THEIR NORMAL RAINFALL SINCE
THE BEGINNING OF OCTOBER.

AS A RESULT OF THE DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS...ISOLATED
MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS BEGAN TO RETURN TO SOUTH
TEXAS...BEGINNING WITH INLAND PORTIONS OF NUECES AND KLEBERG
COUNTIES. AT TIMES...IT APPEARED THAT BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WOULD
RETURN TO SOUTH TEXAS AND ELIMINATE THE MODERATE DROUGHT AREAS.
HOWEVER...THE BENEFICIAL RAINS WERE TOO ISOLATED...AND DROUGHT
CONDITIONS BEGAN TO EXPAND INTO MORE AREAS OF THE HSA. DUE TO
SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WHICH FELL IN MID NOVEMBER...NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND EXPERIENCED DROUGHT
RELIEF...BUT STILL REMAINED ABNORMALLY DRY. HOWEVER...BY THE END
OF NOVEMBER...PERSISTENT MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS REMAINED OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS.

ACCORDING TO THE DROUGHT MONITOR PRODUCT...VALID ON NOVEMBER 29
2016...

MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST OVER THESE PORTIONS OF SOUTH
TEXAS...

MOST OF NUECES COUNTY (EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CITY OF
CORPUS CHRISTI AND SOUTHWESTERN-MOST AREAS OF NUECES COUNTY)...

THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF KLEBERG COUNTY (INCLUDING MOST OF PADRE
ISLAND NATIONAL SEASHORE AND BIRD ISLAND)...

MOST OF THE WESTERN 2/3 OF SAN PATRICIO COUNTY...INCLUDING SINTON
AND MATHIS...

EXTREME NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF LA SALLE COUNTY (NEAR AND NORTH
OF GARDENDALE) AND MOST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF DUVAL
COUNTY (INCLUDES CONCEPTION AND RIOS BUT NOT REALITOS)...AND

SMALL PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTHEASTERN JIM WELLS COUNTY (INCLUDES
ORANGE GROVE)...EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LIVE OAK COUNTY (INCLUDES
LAGARTO)...SOUTHERN-MOST BEE COUNTY (INCLUDES PAPALOTE BUT NOT
SKIDMORE)...AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN REFUGIO COUNTY (RURAL AREA).

OUTSIDE THE MODERATE DROUGHT AREAS...ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXIST OVER THE REMAINDER OF NUECES COUNTY (INCLUDES THE REST OF
CORPUS CHRISTI AND BISHOP)...ALL BUT SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
KLEBERG COUNTY (INCLUDES KINGSVILLE)...ESSENTIALLY ALL OF JIM
WELLS COUNTY (INCLUDES ALICE)...ALL BUT EXTREME EASTERN SAN
PATRICIO COUNTY (INCLUDES PORTLAND)...ESSENTIALLY THE REMAINDER
OF LIVE OAK...BEE...AND GOLIAD COUNTIES...WESTERN PORTIONS OF
REFUGIO COUNTY (INCLUDES WOODSBORO AND REFUGIO)...THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF DUVAL COUNTY (INCLUDES BENAVIDES AND
REALITOS)...AND THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF LA SALLE COUNTY (INCLUDES
COTULLA).

FOR THE CURRENT DROUGHT MONITOR PRODUCT SHOWING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS OVER TEXAS...GO TO THE CORPUS CHRISTI DROUGHT SITE
(LOWER CASE):

HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/CRP/?N=DROUGHT

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

STATE AND LOCAL ACTIONS.
ACCORDING TO THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE BURN BAN MAP OF NOVEMBER
30...THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES HAVE BURN BANS IN EFFECT...

KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO.

THE BURN BANS FOR DUVAL AND WEBB COUNTIES WHICH WERE IN EFFECT IN
SEPTEMBER HAVE BEEN LIFTED. NO OTHER BURN BANS ARE IN EFFECT.

RESIDENTS PLANNING ON BURNING SHOULD STILL CONTACT COUNTY
OFFICIALS TO ENSURE THAT BURNING IS ALLOWED...AND ALSO TO SEE IF
ANY RESTRICTIONS ON HOW AND WHEN TO BURN ARE IN EFFECT. IF BURNING
IS ALLOWED...BE SURE IT IS NOT DONE DURING WINDY DAYS WITH LOW
HUMIDITY...AS THIS COULD RESULT IN A FIRE WHICH COULD EASILY GET
OUT OF CONTROL.

AMISTAD LAKE IS OVER 80 PERCENT CAPACITY...THUS NO MANDATORY
WATER RESTRICTIONS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE CITY OF LAREDO.
HOWEVER... RESIDENTS IN LAREDO ARE ENCOURAGED TO VOLUNTARILY
CONSERVE WATER. ALSO...NO RESTRICTIONS ARE IN EFFECT IN
VICTORIA...AS LEVELS ON CANYON DAM ARE NEAR CAPACITY AND FLOWS ON
THE GUADALUPE RIVER ARE ADEQUATE.

THE CITY OF CORPUS CHRISTI CONTINUES WITH CITY-WIDE VOLUNTARY
WATER CONSERVATION EFFORTS. RESIDENTS ARE ASKED TO WATER ONLY
ONCE A WEEK ON ANY DAY THEY PREFER...AS LONG AS IT IS BETWEEN THE
HOURS OF 6 PM AND 10 AM.

MORE INFORMATION CONCERNING ALL STAGES OF WATER RESTRICTIONS (AND
REQUESTS FOR EXEMPTIONS AND VARIANCES) CAN BE FOUND AT:
WWW.CCTEXAS.COM/GOVERNMENT/WATER.

FOR INFORMATION ON ANY RESTRICTIONS AT PORTLAND AND INGLESIDE...
PLEASE VISIT:

HTTP://PORTLANDTX.COM
HTTP://INGLESIDETX.GOV

WITH COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE UPCOMING MONTHS...AND WITH
GRASSES BECOMING DORMANT...WATERING SHOULD OCCUR ONLY TO MAINTAIN
ADEQUATE SOIL MOISTURE. ALSO...ONLY WATER IF RAINFALL HAS NOT BEEN
RECEIVED FOR A COUPLE OF WEEKS. USE A SPRINKLER WHICH MAKES LARGER
WATER DROPLETS...AND AVOID WATERING ON WINDY DAYS. FINALLY...TURN
SOAKER HOSES SO THAT THE HOLES ARE ON THE BOTTOM...FACING THE
GRASS.

FOR RESIDENTS WITH SPRINKLERS...TURN OFF YOUR SPRINKLER SYSTEM
WHEN RAINFALL HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO AVOID WATERING WHEN IT IS NOT
NEEDED. RESIDENTS WITH SPRINKLER SYSTEMS SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THEIR
WATERING TO ENSURE THEIR SYSTEM IS WATERING THE LAWN AND NOT THE
SIDEWALK OR STREET.

RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN INFORMED ON ANY WATER RESTRICTIONS WHICH
MAY BE IMPOSED FOR THEIR LOCATION...AS ANY VIOLATIONS CAN RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT FINES. MORE INFORMATION ON HOW TO CONSERVE WATER
(AND DROUGHT CONTINGENCY PLANS) IS FOUND ON THE CITY WEBSITES
AT THE END OF THIS STATEMENT.

ADDITIONAL LOCATIONS WITHIN THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA (HSA) WITH
MANDATORY OR VOLUNTARY RESTRICTIONS ON THEIR PUBLIC WATER SYSTEMS
CAN BE FOUND AT:

WWW.TCEQ.TEXAS.GOV/DRINKINGWATER/TROT/LOCATION.HTML

RESIDENTS CAN ALSO CHECK WITH THEIR LOCAL OFFICIALS OR MEDIA
OUTLETS WHETHER WATER RESTRICTIONS FOR THEIR LOCALE HAVE BEEN
ADDED...REMOVED...OR AMENDED.


AGRICULTURAL AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS.
THE SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALY MAP FOR THE END OF NOVEMBER SHOWS
BELOW NORMAL SOIL AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF SOUTH
TEXAS (NEAR NORMAL MOISTURE WAS OBSERVED ELSEWHERE). ANOMALIES
RANGE FROM -20 MM TO -40 MM OVER THE CENTRAL AREAS...INCREASING TO
AS MUCH AS -60 MM TO -80 MM OVER THE EASTERN-MOST PORTIONS OF THE
HSA. SOIL MOISTURE PERCENTILES ARE BETWEEN 30 AND 70 PERCENT OVER
NEARLY ALL OF THE HSA (ALTHOUGH PERCENTILES BETWEEN 20 AND 30
PERCENT ARE APPROACHING THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN AND EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS). CROP MOISTURE INDICES FOR
THE END OF NOVEMBER INDICATE NEAR NORMAL (SLIGHTLY DRY/FAVORABLY
MOIST) CONDITIONS.

THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION WAS PROVIDED BY THE TEXAS CROP AND
WEATHER REPORTS WRITTEN DURING THE LAST TWO WEEKS OF NOVEMBER.

FOR THE COASTAL BEND DISTRICT:

* CONDITIONS WERE MOSTLY DRY. FIELD WORK CONTINUED WITH SOME
  PRODUCERS APPLYING FERTILIZER. SOME LATE HAY CUTTING OCCURRED.

* PLANTING OF WINTER PASTURES CONTINUED WITH WHEAT...OATS AND
  RYEGRASS FOR GRAZING.

* PASTURE CONDITIONS DECLINED DUE TO THE DRY CLIMATE AND CHANGING
  SEASON. CATTLE PRICES WERE LOWER ON HIGHER INVENTORIES.
  LIVESTOCK REMAINED IN GOOD CONDITION. FALL CALVES WERE LOOKING
  GOOD.

* LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HELPED GERMINATE RECENTLY PLANTED COOL-
  SEASON FORAGES...BUT GERMINATION REMAINED SLOW DUE TO THE LACK
  OF MOISTURE.

* SOME PRODUCERS BEGAN APPLYING FERTILIZER.

* ARMYWORMS CONTINUED TO BE AN ISSUE IN SOME AREAS.

* PECAN HARVESTS SHOULD WRAP UP IN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS...WITH LOW
  BUT HIGH QUALITY YIELDS.


FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE HSA:

* GOOD WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUED THROUGHOUT THE DISTRICT.
  CONDITIONS REMAINED MILD BUT GENERALLY DRY. TEMPERATURES
  REMAINED HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. NIGHTS WERE COLD AND
  DAYS WERE MILD.

* PEANUT HARVESTS CONTINUED. WHEAT AND OATS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP.

* PASTURES AND RANGELAND CONDITIONS CONTINUED TO DECLINE DUE TO
  THE LACK OF RAINFALL AND SHORTER DAYS.

* SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS IMPROVED AND RESULTED IN A SLIGHT GREENING
  OF PASTURES. FORAGE QUALITY WAS GOOD...BUT PRODUCTION COULD BE
  LIMITED AS THE GROWING SEASON FOR SUMMER PERENNIALS NEARED THE
  END.

* CATTLE BODY CONDITION SCORES WERE FAIR TO GOOD. SOME SUPPLEMENTAL
  FEEDING OF LIVESTOCK BEGAN AND BODY CONDITION SCORES ON CATTLE
  REMAINED FAIR TO GOOD.

* ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WAS NEEDED FOR WINTER FORAGES ON RANGES AND
  PASTURES AS CONDITIONS CONTINUED TO DECLINE. SOME PASTURES WERE
  STILL IN GREAT SHAPE IN AREAS WHERE MOISTURE LEVELS WERE GOOD.

* THE DEER-HUNTING SEASON WAS IN FULL SWING.

* NO INSECT PRESSURE WAS REPORTED. HARVESTING OF SUGARCANE AND
  CITRUS CONTINUED.

* HAY BALING OPERATIONS CONTINUED ON IMPROVED PASTURES.

* WHEAT AND OATS WERE IRRIGATED. COTTON GINNING CONTINUED. VERY LITTLE
  FIELD ACTIVITIES OCCURRED. MOST FARMERS WINTERIZED FIELDS AND
  WERE HOPING FOR ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. ONIONS...CARROTS AND
  CABBAGE MADE GOOD PROGRESS FOLLOWING IRRIGATION. FALL CORN CROPS
  WERE PROGRESSING AND MATURING.


FIRE DANGER HAZARDS.
ACCORDING TO THE FIRE DANGER MAP FROM THE TEXAS INTER-AGENCY
COORDINATION CENTER (TICC) AT THE END OF NOVEMBER...THERE IS
MODERATE FIRE DANGER OVER NEARLY ALL OF THE HSA. HOWEVER...A
HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER EXISTS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
WEBB COUNTY...MUCH OF DUVAL COUNTY...AND SMALL PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN JIM WELLS AND KLEBERG COUNTIES. FUEL MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO DECREASE OVER MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS...AND THE RECENT COLD FRONT
BROUGHT VERY DRY AIR TO PORTIONS OF THE HSA. HOWEVER...FUEL
MOISTURES HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO IMPROVE THIS WEEKEND WITH THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AND NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICES (KBDI) ARE MODERATE OVER SOUTH
TEXAS...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES
AND LA SALLE COUNTY. AT THE END OF NOVEMBER...COUNTY-AVERAGED
KBDI VALUES WERE:

700-800: NONE
600-700: NONE
500-600: NUECES...SAN PATRICIO...KLEBERG AND LA SALLE
400-500: WEBB...DUVAL...JIM WELLS...MCMULLEN...LIVE OAK...BEE...
         GOLIAD AND REFUGIO
300-400: VICTORIA...CALHOUN AND ARANSAS
200-300: NONE
  0-200: NONE

HOPEFULLY...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND WILL
LOWER THE FIRE DANGER...ESPECIALLY IN MODERATE DROUGHT AREAS.


CLIMATE SUMMARY...
DURING THE LAST TWO MONTHS...RAINFALL HAS BEEN BELOW NORMAL WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS. THUS...THE NEW
WATER YEAR (WHICH BEGAN OCTOBER 1 2016) HAS STARTED OFF ON THE DRY
SIDE FOR NEARLY ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS.

WHILE DROUGHT AND ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS BEGAN TO EXPAND OVER
THE HSA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NOVEMBER...SOME BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL IN THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF THE MONTH HELPED TO
CURTAIL THE DROUGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS AREA
AND NORTHEASTERN COASTAL BEND. ALSO...RAINFALL IN NOVEMBER OVER
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY HELPED TO KEEP
DROUGHT AND ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS FROM EXPANDING FARTHER WEST.

RAINFALL MAPS FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER SHOW MUCH OF CALHOUN...
ARANSAS...WEBB AND VICTORIA COUNTIES RECEIVING ABOVE NORMAL
RAINFALL DURING THE MONTH...WITH PERCENTAGES ANYWHERE FROM 110 TO
NEARLY 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL RAINFALL. ON THE OTHER HAND...NEARLY
ALL OF THE SOUTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES AND LIVE OAK COUNTY...AS
WELL AS MOST OF JIM WELLS COUNTY...SAW BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL (LESS
THAN 75 PERCENT OF NORMAL).

THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWS THE TOTAL MONTHLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FOR NOVEMBER...SO FAR IN 2016...AND FOR THE CURRENT WATER YEAR AS
OF OCTOBER 1 2016. ALL VALUES ARE IN INCHES. RAINFALL DEPARTURES
FROM NORMAL ARE SHOWN IN PARENTHESIS:

                                                 2017 WATER YEAR
                    NOVEMBER           2016         10/01/2016 -
                                                    11/30/2016

CORPUS CHRISTI     1.25 (-0.72)    30.53  (+0.60)   2.19 (-3.42)

VICTORIA           4.05 (+0.81)    36.24  (-2.67)   4.11 (-3.77)

LAREDO AIRPORT     0.67 (-0.52)    22.88  (+3.56)   0.75 (-2.65)

FOR THE THREE CLIMATE STATIONS...THE 2016 PERCENTAGE OF NORMAL
RAINFALL ARE: 102.0 PERCENT AT CORPUS CHRISTI...93.1 PERCENT AT
VICTORIA...AND 118.4 PERCENT AT LAREDO.

THE 2017 WATER YEAR PERCENTAGES ARE: 39.0 PERCENT AT CORPUS
CHRISTI...52.2 PERCENT AT VICTORIA...AND 22.1 PERCENT AT
LAREDO.

ALONG WITH THE BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF
MONTHS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE
HSA...LARGELY DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. IN
OCTOBER...THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WAS 4.3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT
CORPUS CHRISTI...2.4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT VICTORIA...AND 3.9
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT LAREDO.

TEMPERATURES WERE EVEN MORE ABOVE NORMAL IN NOVEMBER. FOR
NOVEMBER...THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WAS 5.8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
AT CORPUS CHRISTI...4.8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT VICTORIA...AND 5.7
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT LAREDO.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) HAS ISSUED A LA NINA
ADVISORY. CPC NOTES THAT LA NINA CONDITIONS DEVELOPED OVER THE
EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN IN OCTOBER 2016...WITH NEGATIVE
ANOMALIES OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC
OCEAN. THE LATEST WEEKLY SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY (SST) IN
THE NINO 3.4 REGION WAS AROUND -0.8 CELSIUS DEGREES. CURRENT UPPER
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT...ALONG WITH OTHER OCEAN AND ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS REFLECT A WEAK LA NINA PATTERN.

MODEL CONSENSUS NOW PREDICTS LA NINA TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH
THE DECEMBER 2016 THROUGH FEBRUARY 2017 INTERVAL. DUE TO THE MODEL
FORECASTS...CPC EXPECTS A SHORT-LIVED LA NINA EVENT...WITH LA
NINA SLIGHTLY FAVORED (55%) TO PERSIST THROUGH FEBRUARY
2017. AFTER THAT...ENSO NEUTRAL (EL-NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION
NEUTRAL) CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED. IN FACT...THERE IS A 60 PERCENT
OR GREATER CHANCE FOR ENSO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS DURING THE SPRING OF
2017 (MARCH THROUGH MAY AND APRIL THROUGH JUNE).

IF THE CPC FORECAST HOLDS TRUE FOR THE WINTER SEASON...THEN SOUTH
TEXAS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH FEBRUARY 2017. ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD
NOT BE FAVORABLE NEWS FOR MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS RESIDENTS...THE
DECEMBER THROUGH FEBRUARY TIME FRAME PROVIDES SOME OF THE LOWEST
AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE YEAR. IF ENSO NEUTRAL
CONDITIONS DO RETURN FOR THE SPRING...PERHAPS LOW RAINFALL
DEFICITS DURING THE WINTER MONTHS CAN BE MADE UP AS 2017
PROGRESSES.


PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS...
THE RAINFALL FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS (DECEMBER 2 THROUGH
DECEMBER 8) IS AS FOLLOWS. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY MONDAY
EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE
FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...2 TO 4 INCHES OVER
THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND WESTERN/SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND...AND 4 TO 6
OR MORE INCHES OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS AREA AND NORTHEASTERN
COASTAL BEND. AFTER MONDAY...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY (AVERAGE AMOUNTS 1/4 INCH OR LESS).

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR DECEMBER 2 THROUGH DECEMBER 8 IS AS
FOLLOWS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON
FRIDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT...BEFORE WARMING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES AGAIN FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING BELOW
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO THE HSA ON THURSDAY.

THE 8 TO 14 DAY RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS (DECEMBER 9
THROUGH DECEMBER 15) CALLS FOR ABOVE BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL OVER
ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE
ENTIRE HSA.

THE MONTHLY RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOR DECEMBER (ISSUED NOVEMBER 30)
SHOW EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE/BELOW/NORMAL RAINFALL OVER MOST OF
THE HSA...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS AREA.

THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR DECEMBER (ISSUED NOVEMBER 30)
SHOW EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE/BELOW/NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER ALL
OF THE HSA.

WITH LA NINA EXPECTED DURING THE DECEMBER 2016 THROUGH FEBRUARY
2017 INTERVAL...CPC FORECASTS A GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL FOR ALL OF THE HSA.

WITH IMPROVED RAINFALL CHANCES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS IN
DECEMBER...THE MONTHLY DROUGHT OUTLOOK FOR DECEMBER CALLS FOR A
LIKELY REMOVAL OF ON-GOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER THE HSA DURING
DECEMBER (WITH DROUGHT CONDITIONS NOT EXPANDING INTO OTHER
AREAS).

HOWEVER...THE SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK...VALID THROUGH FEBRUARY 28
2017 (AND ISSUED ON NOVEMBER 17)...CALLS FOR THE DROUGHT TO
PERSIST (OR RETURN) OVER AREAS IN DROUGHT AS OF NOVEMBER
17...WITH DROUGHT DEVELOPMENT LIKELY OVER THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH
TEXAS. THIS WOULD BE LIKELY IF RAINFALL IS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE END OF FEBRUARY 2017.

THE LAGGED SOIL MOISTURE OUTLOOK VALID THROUGH THE END OF
FEBRUARY 2017 CALLS FOR NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SOIL
CONDITIONS OVER THE HSA...WITH THE GREATER DEFICITS OVER THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS.


HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
DURING THE LAST FEW WEEKS...RESERVOIR LEVELS OVER THE HSA HAVE
DIMINISHED...DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. LAKE CORPUS
CHRISTI SAW A SIGNIFICANT RECHARGE DURING OCTOBER...MAINLY DUE TO
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THE NORTHERN NUECES RIVER BASIN WHICH
EVENTUALLY MOVED INTO WESLEY SEALE DAM. UNFORTUNATELY...MOST OF
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL LIKELY
FALL EAST OF CHOKE CANYON DAM AND LAKE CORPUS CHRISTI.

ACCORDING TO THE USGS STREAMFLOW MAP AT THE END OF NOVEMBER...THE
NUECES...GUADALUPE...SAN ANTONIO AND ARANSAS RIVERS ARE
EXPERIENCING NEAR NORMAL FLOWS. HOWEVER...THE FRIO AND MISSION
RIVERS HAVE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FLOWS...ALONG WITH MOST OF THE
COASTAL CREEKS. COLETO CREEK IS RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL. NEAR
NORMAL FLOWS ARE BEING OBSERVED ON THE RIO GRANDE. RIVER AND CREEK
LEVELS COULD RISE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK IF FORECAST RAINFALL COMES TO
PASS...MAINLY OVER THE GUADALUPE AND MISSION RIVERS AS WELL AS THE
COASTAL CREEKS. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME (BUT THAT COULD CHANGE MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL CREEKS AND GUADALUPE AND MISSION RIVERS).

THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWS THE CURRENT RESERVOIR LEVELS AT THE END
OF NOVEMBER...AND PREVIOUS LEVELS AS OF SEPTEMBER 10.

RESERVOIR      NORMAL  CURRENT  PERCENT  PREVIOUS CHANGE
                POOL     POOL  CAPACITY    POOL    (FT)
CHOKE CANYON   220.5    200.9    35.8     201.7    -0.8
LAKE C. C.      94.0     92.9    62.9      91.9    +1.0
LAKE TEXANA     44.0     42.2   100.6      43.9    -1.7
COLETO CREEK    98.0     95.3     N/A      96.9    -1.6
CANYON DAM     909.0    908.9    99.8     909.1    -0.2
LAKE AMISTAD  1117.0   1100.1    83.7    1096.9    +3.2

THE COMBINED SYSTEM CAPACITY FOR THE CORPUS CHRISTI RESERVOIR
SYSTEM AS OF NOVEMBER 30 WAS AT 55.5 PERCENT...WHICH IS 0.6
PERCENTAGE POINTS HIGHER THAN ON SEPTEMBER 10.

WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL THROUGH
AT LEAST THE FIRST TWO MONTHS OF 2017 (ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES)...RESERVOIR LEVELS WILL LIKELY FALL.


NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
IF BENEFICIAL RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ELIMINATES DROUGHT
CONDITIONS OVER ESSENTIALLY ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS...THIS WILL BE THE
LAST DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT UNTIL MORE WIDESPREAD DROUGHT
CONDITIONS RETURN. OTHERWISE...THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION
STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED NEAR THE END OF DECEMBER OR THE
BEGINNING OF JANUARY 2017.


RELATED WEB SITES...
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI DROUGHT PAGE:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/CRP/?N=DROUGHT

ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS)...
HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR (INCLUDES DROUGHT AND SOIL MOISTURE
OUTLOOKS...DROUGHT ARCHIVES AND TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL OUTLOOKS)...
HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/MONITOR.HTML

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR (INCLUDES ONLY TEXAS)...
HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM_STATE.HTM?TX,S

U.S. DROUGHT PORTAL...
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.GOV

TEXAS DROUGHT MONITORING SITE...
HTTP://WWW.TXWIN.NET/MONITORING/METEOROLOGICAL/DROUGHT/INDICES.HTM

NOAA DROUGHT PAGE...
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV

DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER...
HTTP://DROUGHTREPORTER.UNL.EDU/

NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER...
HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU

TEXAS WATER DEVELOPMENT BOARD DROUGHT WEBSITE
HTTP://WWW.WATERDATAFORTEXAS.ORG/DROUGHT/

VEGETATION DROUGHT RESPONSE INDEX
HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU.VEGDRI/VEGDRI_MAIN.HTM?EV

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER...
HTTP://WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEX (SPI)...
HTTP://WWW.WRCC.DRI.EDU/SPI/SPI.HTML

AGNEWS: TEXAS A & M AGRICULTURAL PROGRAM (CROP AND WEATHER REPORT)...
HTTP://TODAY.AGRILIFE.ORG

TEXAS INTERAGENCY COORDINATION CENTER (TICC)...
HTTP://WWW.TAMU.EDU/TICC/

TEXAS BURN BANS...HTTP://TFSFRP.TAMU.EDU/WILDFIRES/DECBAN.PNG

TEXAS KBDI...HTTP://WEBGIS.TAMU.EDU/TFS/KBDI_DAILY/KBDICOUNTY.PNG

TEXAS OBSERVED FIRE DANGER...
HTTP://TWC.TAMU.EDU/TFS/RAWS/RAWSD.PNG

TEXAS FORECAST FIRE DANGER...
HTTP://TWC.TAMU.EDU/TFS/RAWS/RAWSFCST.PNG

TEXAS COMMISSION ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY (WATER RESTRICTIONS):
WWW.TCEQ.TEXAS.GOV/DRINKINATER/TROT/LOCATION.HTML

CORPUS CHRISTI WATER DEPARTMENT...
WWW.CCTEXAS.COM/GOVERNMENT/WATER

CORPUS CHRISTI WATER CONSERVATION
WWW.CCTEXAS.COM/ASSETS/DEPARTMENTS/WATER/FILES/WATERCONSERVATIONPLAN.PDF

VICTORIA WATER CONSERVATION:
WWW.VICTORIATX.ORG/PIO/PDFS/WATERSAVINGMETHODS.PDF

LAREDO WATER RESTRICTIONS AND CONSERVATION...
WWW.CI.LAREDO.TX.US/UTILITIES05/ORDINANCE/2009_ORDINANCE.PDF

CITY OF VICTORIA WEB SITE...WWW.VICTORIATX.ORG

CITY OF LAREDO WEB SITE...WWW.CI.LAREDO.TX.US

CITY OF PORTLAND WEB SITE...WWW.PORTLANDTX.COM

TEXAS CROP AND WEATHER REPORTS...WWW.TODAY.AGRILIFE.ORG

ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION...
NWS...HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/
USGS...HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/
IBWC...HTTP://IBWC.STATE.GOV/

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE USDA...STATE
AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT
MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED
FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION
SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION
STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
426 PINSON DRIVE
CORPUS CHRISTI TX 78406
PHONE: 361-289-0959
SR-CRP.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

$$

GW



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