Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 201136 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 736 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS BY JUST SOUTH OF PA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A NEW LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP BREEZY AND WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE STORM SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... EXTENSIVE CIRRUS AND CIRROSTRATUS CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MID AND HIGH CLOUD SHIELD EXTENDING BACK THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE BULK OF THE HIGH CLOUDS FOCUSED OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA THROUGH DAWN. INDEED...A BACK EDGE TO THE THICKEST MID TO HIGH CLOUD DOES APPEAR TO BE PROGRESSING FROM NORTHWEST TOWARDS CENTRAL OH. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...MIN TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE ADVISORY AREA...SO WILL LEAVE FROST ADVISORY IN PLACE THIS MORNING. EXPECT A MAINLY DRY DAY ACROSS CENTRAL PA...AS TOP DOWN MOISTENING PERSISTS IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM SYSTEM SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL GLAKS. THERE SHOULD BE SOME LATE DAY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...BUT THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGHS SHOULD EASILY REACH THE 50S THROUGHOUT ON A FRESHENING SOUTHWEST BREEZE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... A PARENT SFC LOW WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GLAKS TONIGHT AS SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT STARTS TAKING PLACE OFF THE COAST BY LATE TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE. HOWEVER...HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN OVER THE WEST AND ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST LIFT ARE JUXTAPOSED WEST OF THE ALLEGHENIES INTO THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS TUE WILL BE A TAD MILDER ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ...AND A TAD COOLER OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN BETWEEN. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AN UNUSUALLY HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IS LEADING TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE OVERWHELMINGLY DOMINANT MAIN FEATURE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A CUT-OFF...MEANDERING UPPER LOW AND IT/S REFLECTION/MINI-ME AT THE SFC. THE DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE ON MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND SECONDARY LOW DEEPENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES/COAST. THE SYSTEM WILL ONLY SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE POSITION OF THE STORM WILL KEEP LOTS OF MARITIME AIR FLOWING IN FROM THE NORTH/EAST AND KEEP POPS PRETTY HIGH FROM TUES INTO WED...AND PERHAPS THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE NRN HALF - ESP THE NE. BUT THE MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND THE STORM COMPLETELY AT TIMES. THUS...A MOIST UPSLOPE IN THE WRN MTNS WILL KEEP SHOWER CHCS HIGH THERE AS WELL DURING MID-WEEK. WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND WIND...THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY SNOW ARE DIM. 8H TEMPS GENERALLY STAY WELL ABOVE ZERO. BUT TUES NIGHT/WED AM MAY BE COLD ENOUGH OVER THE LAURELS TO HAVE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH THE SHOWERS ON THE HIGHEST ELEVS. HAVE CHOSEN TO LEAVE OUT MENTIONS OF ANY MIX AT THIS POINT. THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR IS SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH WITH HELP FROM THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH KEEPS THAT MARITIME AIR WRAPPING IN TO THE AREA. EVENTUALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND CONCURRENT UPPER RIDGING SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY WEEKEND WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ON SAT. THERE COULD BE A WEAK AND DRY FRONT DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY PRODUCE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS...BUT IT IS NOT WORTH A POP AT THIS POINT. TEMPS MAY THEN DIP A FEW DEGS FROM SAT-SUN. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INVADING THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONSS WILL PERSIST THROUGH DUSK. MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS /ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS/ ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AS SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION. OUTLOOK... TUE-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS W MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ019-025>028- 034>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT/MARTIN LONG TERM...DANGELO AVIATION...FITZGERALD/TYBURSKI

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