Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 230807 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 407 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Conditions will improve today as a large storm lifts northward into eastern Canada...and temperatures moderate over the commonwealth. A cold front will pass through tonight and Monday bringing a chance of showers to the north and a reinforcing shot of cold air that will last through mid week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Light lake effect shower activity has ended for now..but sct-bkn stratus is common across central and western portions. This too will diminish as the morning wears on as the coss lake flow lifts to the north and weakens. should be dry for the rest of the day. Partly to mostly sunny skies are expected for most with temps 10-15F higher than Saturday. Despite relaxing pressure gradients...still expect breezy west winds through this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Quick moving frontal system reaches the northwest mountains after midnight tonight...spreading a swatch of showers across the northern tier...mainly north of Interstate 80 from 03z through 12z Monday morning. Cooler air will spill southward again across the eastern lakes and into PA...with another 12-18 hour stretch similar to Sat aftn for central and western PA expected through Monday evening. Mins tonight will be in the 40s. Highs Monday will be reached in the morning across the northwest...where post frontal cooling will occur for most of the day. Highs farther south will range from the 50s to the lower 60s across the rest of central and south central PA. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure gradually works in from the Great Lakes Tue into Wed keeping below normal temperatures in place. CAA comes to an end on Wed as upper ridge finally moves through. But that will be quickly followed by a compact low developing over the Midwest that will be knocking on our door by Thu. Expect showers to work in from the west later Wed night, with rain likely for much of the area on Thu. Model guidance quickly diverges after that, so confidence in next weekends forecast is rather low. But looks like potentially another quick shot of cooler air late week, with the GFS and EC battling it out for synoptic features by Sunday. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Gusty northwesterly flow will continue overnight. Currently MVFR cigs at JST. Gusty northwesterly flow across the central mountains could allow for MVFR cigs at BFD between 09Z to 12Z. Due to this flow there is a chance for lake effect rain showers. Otherwise after 15Z VFR will dominate during the daytime. A trough approaching Sunday evening could bring showers across the northern half of TAF PA. Outlook... Sun Night...MVFR N with RA. VFR elsewhere. Mon...Mainly VFR. MVFR with rain showers possible early. Tue-Wed...No Sig Wx. Thu...Widespread showers. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DeVoir NEAR TERM...DeVoir SHORT TERM...Dangelo/DeVoir LONG TERM...DeVoir/RXR/Steinbugl AVIATION...Ceru/Martin is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.