Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 230044 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 744 PM EST Thu Feb 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A nearly stationary frontal boundary will remain just south of out Pennsylvania today through Saturday, before lifting north across the commonwealth as a warm front Saturday night. A cold front will ultimately usher in cooler and drier air Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Residual low level moisture, combined with an upsloping easterly flow, will yield lingering areas of drizzle over much of the region into tonight. Pockets of freezing drizzle will remain a concern over the higher terrain of northeast Pa. The next wave on stationary front and associated batch of rain should move into the region early Friday morning. Over the high terrain of northeast Pa, temperatures are expected to remain around the freezing mark through at least midday, so will maintain the winter weather advisory up there through noon. Anticipate some icy spots Friday morning with impacts to the AM commute. Latest NBM indicates a change to rain in most areas Friday afternoon. However, the 12Z HREFV2 indicates some of the highest ridgetops north and east of KIPT could remain below freezing through Friday evening. Elsewhere, expect plain rain as temperatures hold steady in the mid 30s to low-mid 40s. Expect a very small diurnal variation east of the Alleghenies due to CAD, while milder air surges into far SW PA. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The focus this weekend will shift to potential flooding, with waves of moderate to locally heavy rain moving over the area through Sunday. Flood watch was issued for west- central PA through Sunday evening. Expect significant rises on streams, creeks and river tribs with streamflows already above normal. The ground/soil is very saturated so the risk for widespread minor river flooding, along with poor drainage/low- lying flooding is certainly in play. Temperatures will slowly rise but should eventually reach the 50s and low 60s by Sunday based on multi model consensus blend. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The wet pattern looks like it will take a break during the first part of next week before precip risk increases Wed-Fri. Temperatures should continue to run above average for late February. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Widespread MVFR/IFR will continue into the evening and overnight. Far southeast airfields /KMDT/KLNS/ will hold VFR conds this evening until rain and lower cigs return overnight. Active weather will continue into the weekend with several disturbances bring widespread rain and sub VFR conditions. Outlook... Fri...Widespread restrictions in periods of rain. Some improvement poss SW late. Sat...Widespread restrictions with rain. Sun...Widespread restrictions likely in periods of rain. Mon-Tue...No sig wx.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... Active hydrologic pattern through Sunday. Recent snow melt and rainfall has soils quite wet. Streamflows are also running high. Recent rainfall has stream flows above average. So focus will turn to where the heaviest rain falls and if it is heavy enough to produce flooding. Models consistent with heaviest rain west of the CWA but still close enough to keep a flood threat over the western half of the CWA. Issued a Flood Watch for this area to address the threat. Right now no river forecast to flood, but expect significant rises and will monitor closely. Some poor drainage and small stream flooding is likely. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Sunday evening for PAZ004>006-010>012- 017>019-024>026-033>035-045. Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST Friday for PAZ006-037- 041-042-058. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald/La Corte NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald/Steinbugl SHORT TERM...Steinbugl LONG TERM...Steinbugl AVIATION...La Corte/Gartner HYDROLOGY...

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