Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KCTP 230807
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
407 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016
Conditions will improve today as a large storm lifts northward
into eastern Canada...and temperatures moderate over the
commonwealth. A cold front will pass through tonight and Monday
bringing a chance of showers to the north and a reinforcing shot
of cold air that will last through mid week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Light lake effect shower activity has ended for now..but sct-bkn
stratus is common across central and western portions. This too
will diminish as the morning wears on as the coss lake flow lifts
to the north and weakens. =Therefore...it should be dry for the
rest of the day. Partly to mostly sunny skies are expected for
most with temps 10-15F higher than Saturday. Despite relaxing
pressure gradients...still expect breezy west winds through this
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Quick moving frontal system reaches the northwest mountains
after midnight tonight...spreading a swatch of showers across the
northern tier...mainly north of Interstate 80 from 03z through 12z
Monday morning. Cooler air will spill southward again across the
eastern lakes and into PA...with another 12-18 hour stretch
similar to Sat aftn for central and western PA expected through
Mins tonight will be in the 40s. Highs Monday will be reached in
the morning across the northwest...where post frontal cooling will
occur for most of the day. Highs farther south will range from the
50s to the lower 60s across the rest of central and south central
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure gradually works in from the Great Lakes Tue into
Wed keeping below normal temperatures in place. CAA comes to an
end on Wed as upper ridge finally moves through. But that will be
quickly followed by a compact low developing over the Midwest that
will be knocking on our door by Thu. Expect showers to work in
from the west later Wed night, with rain likely for much of the
area on Thu.
Model guidance quickly diverges after that, so confidence in next
weekends forecast is rather low. But looks like potentially another
quick shot of cooler air late week, with the GFS and EC battling
it out for synoptic features by Sunday.
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Gusty northwesterly flow will continue overnight. Currently MVFR
cigs at JST. Gusty northwesterly flow across the central mountains
could allow for MVFR cigs at BFD between 09Z to 12Z. Due to this
flow there is a chance for lake effect rain showers.
Otherwise after 15Z VFR will dominate during the daytime. A
trough approaching Sunday evening could bring showers across the
northern half of TAF PA.
Sun Night...MVFR N with RA. VFR elsewhere.
Mon...Mainly VFR. MVFR with rain showers possible early.
Tue-Wed...No Sig Wx.