Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 300551 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 151 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Showery conditions will prevail into early Friday. Unsettled weather with occasional light rain showers will persist into the weekend with a gradual drying trend by early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
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Still a neat little box around 95 pct of central PA where no radar echoes exist. It is drizzly at may locations, but that stuff is too low (and the droplets too tiny for most 10cm radars) to pick up. A slight increase in radar echoes is starting to move in from the south and precip in DE also sliding just a little to the west of north. HRRR and RAP doing well with the first couple of hours in the past few runs, so higher than normal confidence exists that they will do well with the rest of the night. 00Z NAM arriving and continues to make heavier rain than other mdls. The placement of the heavier rain is mainly to the east of the Susq and is an area where generally less rainfall occurred. That area has also had a decent break of time since any real rain has occurred. Grid work with this update was mainly to dip the POPs to =<20pct in the north for the next few hrs. However, the guidance is big on developing the precip associated with a wave moving up the MidAtlantic coast. This area would then blossom as it enters eastern PA and make the heaviest rain in the east for a few hours either side of sunrise while lifting north. The northern mtns should then have their best shot at some rain during the daytime on Fri.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... The Large low will be quasi stationary and will continue to stream moisture into Southwestern PA through tomorrow. Strong E-SE LLJ and above normal PW along with associated forcing on east/southeast side of upper low favors scattered to numerous lighter rain showers through the period. The mid range models are keying in on a mid level short wave trough that forms to the east of the low and should increase rainfall rates and amounts through Central PA as it is coupled with the LLJ and the PWATS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The upper level low will continue to spin slowly northward into MI and continue on into Southern Canada. The low will slowly be pulled into the upper level flow and cold air advection will filter into the region early into next week. The final vestiges of the low that has dominated our weather pattern this week will finally lift and move off coast by mid next week by the upstream amplifying trough over the central CONUS. High pressure should regain control of the large scale pattern. The 12Z GFS comes more into alignment with the EC however the EC continues the path of the TC Matthew much slower and keeps it off the coast of Florida, where the GFS brings the projected path up the Atlantic coast and has the system nearing the NC coast by Thursday morning. Temperatures will be slightly below normal through the weekend, before shifting to slightly above normal by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Widespread MVFR-IFR conditions through tonight. Periods of rain moving SE-NW across the airspace early today with decreasing coverage by afternoon. Isolated LLWS possible 35-40KT from 090-120 degrees especially KBFD/KJST and may add with 09z update. Outlook... Sat...MVFR-IFR cigs. Ocnl -RA. Sun...MVFR cigs. Chc -RA. Mon-Tue...Gradual improvement likely.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Dangelo/DeVoir/Steinbugl SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Ceru/Steinbugl LONG TERM...Ceru/Steinbugl AVIATION...Steinbugl

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