Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KCTP 311945
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
345 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016
High pressure will ridge south into the commonwealth tonight and
Wednesday. Increasing moisture will flow northward into
Pennsylvania for Thursday and Friday...bringing a better chance
for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms...ahead of
another relatively weak cold front. Saturday is expected to be dry
again...but wet weather may arrive for the second half of the
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Tiny shallow cumulus clouds are scattered about all of central PA
at this hour as per GOES East and MODIS imagery. Strong inversion
at 675 Mb is squashing vertical development so no expecting any of
these to produce anything of consequence.
Aside from thin high clouds streaming NEWD from the Ohio and
Tennessee River Valleys...skies will clear this evening and it
will be a comfortable night with a light NE breeze. Lows will
vary from around 50F across the northern border...to near 60F in
the valleys of Southern PA.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
With sfc high pressure tracking north and northeast of region on
Wednesday...another mostly sunny...warm and dry day is in store.
Comfortable dewpoints in the low 50s up north...and the mid and
upper 50s elsewhere...will combine with highs mostly in the lower
to middle 80s to bring another stellar day.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --A few showers could move into the far west by Thursday morning.
Cold front moves across the area on Friday...with QPF amounts
of .50 inches or less. Not expecting severe weather with this
Models still showing large scale flow to be less amplified and
more zonal in a sense...so front not likely to slow down quite as
much for late Friday into Sat. Adjusted ending time some...sooner
Still looks like a dry day on Saturday.
More showers for Sunday into Monday...as a jet max moves across
the area. Starting to see signs that dry intrusion and dynamics
could support not only thunder...but even strong storms.
Cooler and drier conditions for late Tuesday into Wed.
Overall a trend toward a cooler and wetter pattern...as a ridge
builds across the west.
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.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conds will prevail through tonight. Some patchy late night and early
morning fog is expected with mvfr restrictions. This will burn off
by 14z with VFR expected again throughout central PA.
Wed...No sig wx. Local fog reductions poss around dawn.
Thu...A.M. cig reductions poss west. Chance of showers/tstms
Fri...Cold front. Scattered showers/thunderstorms with
Sat...Mainly fair/VFR. Local fog reductions poss around dawn.
Sun...Reductions in widespread rain and low cigs.