Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 251859 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 259 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weather disturbance will bring showers and thunderstorms to western portions of the area this evening. These storms will diminish as they more into east later this evening. A seasonally warm and humid late- summer weather pattern will continue across Central Pennsylvania into next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... HRRR runs show convection entering nw cwa this evening. A few of these storms will be quite strong with frequent lightning...gusty winds and brief heavy downpours accompanying them as the move east and southeast. Convection will weaken after sunset with loss of heating...somewhere close to Centre County and points north south...likely not making it much further east. After convection diminishes look for another warm and humid night. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Ridging will bring warm temperatures aloft to limit threat of convection. Slight less surface moisture will make things feel more comfortable though temperatures will once again top out well above average. Sfc high will build over the region Friday night, resulting in a fair and mild night. Will have to watch for the possibility of patchy valley fog over the northern mtns late. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Medium range guidance is in good agreement in keeping an anomalous ridge aloft in place over the region into the early days of next week. This will assure we remain warmer than normal with daytime highs in the mid to upper 80s, low to mid 90s over southeastern areas, at least into Tuesday. By mid week week, weak troughing rippling through southern Canada and the Great Lakes is made to erode the northern portion of the northeastern ridge a bit, but only to the extent that upper heights and temperatures fall back closer to normal values. The NAEFS and GEFS end up carving out a weak mean trough by the end of the week, but once again heights and temps are forecast to be near seasonal norms so it should remain quite pleasant with the biggest chance being a break in the humidity. Chances for rain will be generally limited to scattered diurnal convection each day, but with warm air aloft the chances should remain small in the absence of well defined forcing. There is a period later Sunday into Monday morning as we come under the northern edge of the subtropical ridge and a weak cold front approaches, which could be the first hints at the development of a more significant MCS upstream. But with such a strong ridge aloft it`s hard to be confident at this range. Main item of difference is the tropical system the ECMWF blows up over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico early next week that the GFS doesn`t do much with at all. Both model suites agree with the northern stream trough mentioned above to be enough to keep any possible tropical developments well south of the local area.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Scattered convection this evening across nw portion of area with improving conditions late evening. Outlook... Fri...A.M. restrictions possible; becoming VFR. Isold thunderstorms possible southern 1/4 airspace in the afternoon. Sat...Patchy A.M. fog. Otherwise no sig wx expected. Sun...Isold thunderstorms possible western 1/3 airspace in the afternoon. Mon...Isold-sct thunderstorms possible. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Ross NEAR TERM...Ross SHORT TERM...Ross LONG TERM...La Corte AVIATION...Ross/Steinbugl

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