Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 261033 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 633 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE REGION TODAY... ACCOMPANIED BY AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT WILL REACH A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITY...AND TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A CALM WIND WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG...THAT WILL BE LOCALLY DENSE THROUGH 13Z /ESP NEAR THE LARGER STREAMS AND RIVERS/. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY BETWEEN 13-14Z...LEAVING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY IN ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NW ZONES. LOWS EARLY TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S...BUT A FEW RURAL SPOTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN PENN COULD DIP TO AROUND 48-49F BETWEEN 11-12Z. A RETURN...SW FLOW AND ASSOC INCREASED DWPTS ACROSS NW PA WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A MIX OF SUN AND CU BY AFTN. CONSENSUS...ALL MODEL BLEND YIELDS HIGHS TEMPS A FEW...TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...TOPPING OUT NEAR 80F ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...AND IN THE LOW-MID 80S ELSEWHERE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... SKIES STAY CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE CWA TONIGHT...WHILE INCREASING CLOUD COVER SPREADS INTO THE NW MTNS WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE /MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT/ NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF A NARROWING NE/SW RIBBON OF 1.5 INCH PWAT AIR. SFC COLD FRONT SLIDES SE ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON TIMING OF THE SFC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE SE HALF OF THE FCST AREA FAVORS SLIGHTLY MORE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY IN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. HIGH TEMPS WED AFTERNOON WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK...IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE MTNS...AND UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90F IN THE SUSQ VALLEY /WHERE THE GREATEST EFFECTS OF THE ADIABATIC WARMING FROM THE SWRLY LLVL FLOW WILL BE FELT/. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...FOLLOWING THE MIDWEEK COLD FRONT...WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS FOR LATE THIS WEEK AND THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS RUNNING A FEW...TO SEVERAL DEG F BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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DENSE FOG/SHALLOW STRATUS WITH LCL CIGS/VIS AOB AIRFIELD MINS WILL BURN OFF BY 14Z - GIVING WAY TO VFR FLYING FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE SEWD THRU THE AIRSPACE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WED. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BUT OVERALL AVN IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED GIVEN SPARSE CONVECTIVE CVRG. OUTLOOK... WED...SCT TSTM IMPACTS POSSIBLE AFTN/EVE. THU-FRI...A.M. VSBY RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN FOG PSBL..OTHERWISE VFR. SAT...MAINLY VFR. CHC OF SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER AVIATION...STEINBUGL

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