Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 270650 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 150 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR TO THE KEYSTONE STATE OVERNIGHT. OTHER THAN A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...IT WILL REMAIN FAIR THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE SE COAST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 AM THIS MORNING/... LAST OF THE VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF MY FAR EASTERN ZONES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. CONCERN IS THAT POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD AFFECT SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS STUCK IN A LOW OVERCAST...BUT FOR THE MOST PART WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP US MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE A LITTLE BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT...NO REAL COLD...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. FOR THE LATEST SNOWFALL REPORTS CHECK OUR PHLPNSCTP PRODUCT...OR SUBMIT YOUR OWN ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE. && .SHORT TERM /5 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... TRANSITION TO COLD ADVECTION PATTERN WITH NW FLOW WILL BRING THE USUAL GENERALLY LIGHT LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THU NIGHT...AND WILL BECOME A BIT MORE NUMEROUS AS A NOTABLE SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE FLOW. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS LIMITED. THE AIR THAT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND OUR STORM WILL BE COLDER BUT NOT ESPECIALLY SO...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S. STILL A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ANOMALOUSLY LOW HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN US EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL FLATTEN OUT INTO A BROAD ZONAL FLOW DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROMPT A WARM-UP AS THE CYCLONE TRACK SHIFTS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THE SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF OUR STORM WILL BEGIN MODERATING BY SATURDAY...WITH READINGS IN THE MILD RANGE TAKING OVER BY SUNDAY. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN DROPPING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD...AND EVENTUALLY COOL US OFF A BIT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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27/06Z UPDATE...WEAK RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT /IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY/S SNOWSTORM/ WILL BE OVER THE REGION INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSES HARMLESSLY TO THE SOUTH OF PENN AIRFIELDS TODAY. VFR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION NEAR AND SE OF A LINE FROM KAOO TO KUNV AND KIPT...WHILE MVFR WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS MUCH OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS OF NRN AND WRN PENN. KJST SHOULD STAY VLIFR- LIFR THROUGH 12-14Z BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO UPPER END IFR OR MVFR AFTER 15Z TODAY. AFTERWARD...EXPECT PLENTY OF STRATO CU /TOPPED BY A LAYER OR TWO OF ALTOCU AND CIRRUS/ AND RELATIVELY LIGHT NW WINDS THROUGH 18-21Z TODAY WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS /FROM KBFD TO KJST/. EARLY TO M SEE NO REASON TO STRAY FROM PREVIOUS FCST THEREFORE ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO 00Z SCHEDULED TAFS. VLIFR CONDS CONTINUE TO IMPACT JST WITH VIS BLW AIRFIELD MINS AT TIMES WITH SOME -FZDZ POSSIBLE. SOME LAKE EFFECT -SHSN ARE FCST TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE WRN 1/3 WHERE REDUCED CONDS ARE LKLY TO PERSIST. COINCIDING WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS...WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE NW WINDS AND ASSOCIATED GUSTS. THE 09Z TAF UPDATE WILL CONTAIN MORE DETAIL OF LATE DAY/NIGHT-TIME WINDS WHICH SHOULD GUST IN EXCESS OF 20KTS ACROSS THE MTNS OF WRN PENN. GUSTS ELSEWHERE WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS - MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUTLOOK... THU NIGHT...IFR/MVFR WITH OCNL -SHSN WRN 1/3. VFR TO MVFR CIGS CNTRL/EAST. FRI...AM MVFR/-SHSN NW...OTHERWISE BCMG VFR. SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD -SHRA PSBL. MON...COLD FROPA. MAINLY VFR. SCT -SHRA PSBL.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/MARTIN NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/MARTIN SHORT TERM...MARTIN/RXR LONG TERM...LA CORTE/GARTNER AVIATION...LAMBERT

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