Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 191901 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 301 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD JUST SOUTH OF PA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A NEW LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP BREEZY AND WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE STORM SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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WINDS WILL WEAKEN BY SUNSET. WITH LOW DEWPOINTS AND CLEAR SKIES MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL PA WILL LIKELY SEE SOME FROST BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW LATE...ALONG WITH SOME CLDS MOVING IN. THUS POSTED A FROST ADVISORY FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. NORTHERN PA MAY SEE SOME FROST AND POCKETS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER THE GROWING SEASON HAS ENDED ACROSS THIS AREA. TEMPS WILL LIKELY COME UP SOME LATE...GIVEN STRONG WARM ADVECTION.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
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SW FLOW AND WAA ON MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE WILL BRING US A MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY. AFTER A CHILLY START...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S WITH CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. APPROACHING WAVE/COOL FRONT MAY KICK OFF SOME SCT SHOWERS IN THE NW LATER IN THE DAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... LARGE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND SW CANADA FOR MIDWEEK...AS AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION SLIDE OVER PA...BEFORE CLOSING OFF INTO AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE NJ COAST WED AND THU /ONCE THE WEAK CLIPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TRANSFERS ENERGY OFF THE COAST/. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE VERY MUCH IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A RAINY/SHOWERY AND QUITE BREEZY MID/LATE WEEK UNTIL THIS LOW LIFTS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON FRI. TEMPS WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW. RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE TO OUR WEST HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH WILL KEEP TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST. A BRIEF WARMING TREND POSS LATE WEEK BUT MODELS HINTING AT POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR LATE WEEKEND AS BRISK NW FLOW CONTINUES. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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WINDS WILL DIE DOWN BY SUNSET. LOOKING AT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. SOME MID AND HI CLDS ON MONDAY...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. A FEW SHOWERS LATE. LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SE FROM THE LOWER LAKES AREA LATE MONDAY WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BEFORE LATE IN THE WEEK. THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP A RISK OF SHOWERS IN THE AREA AT LEAST THROUGH LATE WED. OUTLOOK... TUE-THU...MVFR/SHOWERS AS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE GR LAKES. FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ019-025>028- 034>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/MARTIN/EVANEGO NEAR TERM...MARTIN SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...MARTIN

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