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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCTP 170602
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
202 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE THIS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA WITH ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY PUSH BACK TO THE NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND...AND LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
LOW CREEPING STRATUS NOT FAR FROM THE LAURELS ATTM...ALONG WITH
LOWERED VISIBILITY AT OAKLAND MD. THE LIGHT SSW WIND AT MGW SEEMS
TO BE PUSHING STUFF THIS WAY. SO WILL MENTION SOME CLOUDS AND EVEN
AREAS OF FOG FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AND JUST AN HR OR TWO
AFTER SUNRISE. REST OF AREA IS PRETTY CLEAR...BUT SCT MID CLOUDS
TRYING TO SLIDE TO THE SE FROM OH. JUST A NUDGE UPWARD TO TEMPS TO
CATCH ONTO THE TREND...ESP IN THE LAURELS WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL
KEEP THINGS MILDER IF THEY DO SET UP THERE. OTERWISE...MUCH OF THE
AREA IS A CONTINUOUS FCST.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE EWD FROM ONTARIO TO THE MARITIMES BY 12Z
SUNDAY...WITH ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING ACRS THE MID-ATLC STATES.
EXPECT SFC RIDGING AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MID-UPPER LEVEL
FORCING TO LIMIT PCPN THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. THE HIGHEST POPS
ARE OVER THE SERN ZONES SAT NGT AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE DRIFTS EWD
ACRS KY/TN INTO THE CNTRL APPLCHNS AND INTERACTS WITH ONSHORE MSTR
FEED INTERSECTING RETREATING Q-STNRY/WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD OVER
THE MID-ATLC. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON
SAT NGT IN SERLY FLOW REGIME. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER ON FRIDAY WITH
MORE SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO BIG CHANGES NECESSARY TO LONGER RANGE FORECAST BASED ON LATEST
COMPUTER GUIDANCE.

NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF PA FRI
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING S/SE BRINGING
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND TAPPING ONSHORE COMPONENT RESULTING IN
COOLER HIGHS FOR SAT/SUN. WEAKENING REMNANTS OF UPPER LOW EXITING
TEXAS WILL DRIFT TOWARD WV OVER THE WEEKEND...AND MAY HELP TO
ENHANCE PRECIP OVER MID-ATLANTIC REGION. MODELS STILL TRYING TO
GENERATE SOME PRECIP MAINLY SAT NIGHT-SUN...SO KEPT POPS INTACT
AND CONTINUED TYPE AS STRATIFORM DURING THAT PERIOD AS EXPECTING
MAINLY STABLE CONDITIONS EAST OF ALLEGHENY FRONT /INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN TO THE WEST BEHIND AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT/.

WARM FRONT DOES PUSH THROUGH ON MONDAY...WITH MENTION OF SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS. PWATS INCREASE MORE NOTICEABLY HEADING INTO TUE-WED
AS LARGE SCALE PATTERN AMPLIFIES...AND HEIGHTS BUILD OVER PA.
MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
NRN PLAINS/UPR MS VLY. H5 HGTS SHOULD RISE DOWNSTREAM OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH CENTRAL PA SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR BY TUE. THIS
SHOULD AFFORD ONE OR TWO VERY WARM LATE SPRING DAYS WITH HIGHS
75-80F AND LOW CHANCES FOR DAILY TSTMS. THERE IS NOTICEABLE SPREAD
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST CUT-OFF...BUT SETTLED ON BRINGING THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH ON WED-WED NIGHT /ALONG WITH HIGHEST POPS/. STRONG SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS ACROSS GLAKES UNDER UPPER TROUGH LATE WEEK...BRINGING
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL PA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
17/06Z...
VFR FLYING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CNTRL PA AIRSPACE THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD. ONLY 2 POTNL TROUBLE SPOTS: 1) INVOF JST THIS MORNING
WITH LOW CLOUDS/CIGS ON IR SATL CREEPING NWD FM NRN WV TO PIT-LBE.
2) MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT ACRS THE
S-CNTRL AIRFIELDS AS LLVL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE ESE. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW IN BOTH CASES. THE DEVELOPING ONSHORE/SE FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY
INTERSECT A RETURNING WARM FRONT AND RESULT IN CIG/VIS RESTRICTIONS
LATER SAT INTO MONDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT...CIGS LOWERING WITH MVFR/IFR LKLY BY SAT NGT.
SUN-MON...MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH OCNL -RA/-DZ.
TUE...VFR/MVFR WITH SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/GARTNER/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...STEINBUGL