Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 290143 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 943 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE STATE AND DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO REGION FOR THE WEEKEND...AND VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... A VERY PLEASANT AUGUST NIGHT THROUGHOUT CENTRAL PA WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S...CREEPING UP EVER SO SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING. 8H RIDGE AXIS SLIDING INTO EASTERN PA... AND RETURN FLOW HAS COMMENCED. A RIBBON OF BKN-OVC HIGH CLOUDS IS STREAMING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND WILL SPREAD OVERHEAD THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THAT WILL BE THE EXTENT OF SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE OVERNIGHT...AS FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH JUST SOME PATCHY FOG. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 NORTH TO NEAR 60 SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... AFTER THE PATCHY EARLY FOG QUICKLY BURNS OFF...SATURDAY WILL KEEP THE RECENT STRING OF MAINLY FAIR DAYS IN TACT...WHILE WARMING UP BY 4 OR 5 DEG ON AVERAGE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE AND SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW SHRA/TSRA ON SUNDAY...WITH THE BEST CHC OF SEEING RAINFALL BEING ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS. AFTER THAT...THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED BY AN ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE 12Z GEFS SHOWS 850HPA TEMPS RUNNING +1SD ACROSS THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO ABOVE-NORMAL SFC TEMPS. THIS WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS LOW. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF INTERESTING FEATURES THAT BEAR WATCHING FOR LATE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE FIRST IS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA...WHICH ARE FCST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FL/GA COAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY TRY TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD INTO PA. THE OTHER INTERESTING FEATURE IS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT SOME MODELS BRING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES NEXT THURS/FRI. THIS FEATURE COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPS LATE NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND TO START THE DAY SATURDAY. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE REMAINDEER OF THE DAY WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH BASED CU AND LIGHT WINDS. OUTLOOK... SUN-MON...MAINLY VFR WITH A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE. TUE-WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...EVANEGO AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER

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