Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 222349 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 749 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... It will be very comfortable for much of the week with cool mornings and warm afternoons. The next chance for showers will be on Thursday when a cold front slides southeast across the state. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... We are losing the cumulus along with the setting sun. We`ll see the coolest night in a while tonight under clear skies. Many lows in the 40s across the area tomorrow morning. Only weather of note overnight will be patchy valley fog toward sunrise. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure over head on Tuesday swings east by Wednesday. This will bring dry weather with slightly warmer and more humid weather each day. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The 12Z mid range runs have continued to speed up the onset of precipitation out ahead of the approaching front. The latest ensembles continue to show the best PWATS between 18Z Thursday to 06Z Have adjusted the timing of the bell- curve of higher POPs a little nearer in time as most guidance now places the front over the area on Thursday/Night instead of Friday as it did previously. Cooler, drier air will advect into the region bringing a long period of precipitation-free weather through most of next week. The next period of active weather will come as an upper level trough moves into the region Thursday night into Friday. A front with +1 to 2 STD/anomalous PWATS progress through Friday. That should correspond with a passing but possibly weakening/shearing cold front. Dry air under high pressure is expected for next weekend. The week will start off cooler due to the northwesterly flow but will gradually warm as the week continues with temperatures slightly above normal through the second half of the week. What will also make this week feel cooler is the lack of humidity as dewpoints will be in the 50s through most of the week. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Clear skies and a light wind this evening, as high pressure builds over the statew. Radiational cooling, combined with warm river/stream water, should result in some early morning fog Tuesday, mainly in the deep valleys north of I-80. Climatology suggests KBFD will most likely be affected, with also some potential of briefly reduced vsbys at KAOO/KUNV/KIPT btwn 09Z-12Z. Any fog should burn off by arnd or shortly after 12Z, with a high confidence of widespread VFR conds and light wind the rest of the day. Outlook... Wed...Patchy AM fog possible, esp KBFD/KIPT. Thu...Isold pm tsra impacts possible, mainly w mtns. Fri...AM low cigs possible w mtns. Sat...No sig wx expected. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Ross NEAR TERM...Ross/La Corte SHORT TERM...Ross LONG TERM...Dangelo/Ceru AVIATION...Fitzgerald

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