Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCTP 010954 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 554 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. A PERSISTENT UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL REMAIN POSITIONED JUST WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. AN UPPER LVL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
WATER VAPOR LOOP AT 09Z SHOWS POTENT SHORTWAVE OVR WESTERN PA. ONLY A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN REGION OF STRONG LG SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY MTNS...AS DEEP MOISTURE HAS BEEN SHUNTED EAST OF PA. NR TERM MDLS AND RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT JUST A FEW SCT SHRA ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AS SHORTWAVE ZIPS THRU BTWN 09Z-14Z. WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERING NW PA WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW ADDITIONAL SHRA INTO THE AFTN ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE...DOWNSLOPING WEST WIND...COMBINED WITH ARRIVAL OF LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE...SHOULD KEEP MOST PARTS OF SOUTHERN PA DRY TODAY. SKIES TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM MCLDY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO MSUNNY ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS BTWN 12-14C SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS WED FROM THE L70S NW TO M80S LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
RIDGE OF HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRIER AIR MASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING A FAIR WX AND LIGHT WIND. THE MCLEAR SKIES...COMBINED WITH A CALM WIND AND WET GROUND SHOULD PROMOTE AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT...ESP IN THE VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. CAN/T RULE OUT A LATE DAY SHOWER ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES ON THURSDAY...AS WAVE OF LOW PRES TRACKS SOUTH OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...HIGH PRES/LOW PWAT AIR MASS SHOULD ENSURE A DRY THURSDAY FOR MOST OF CENTRAL PA. PTSUNNY SKIES AND MDL 8H TEMPS ARND 12C SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MAX TEMPS FROM THE L70S N MTNS TO THE L80S LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
DESPITE MINOR TIMING DIFFS AMONG MED RANGE MDLS...THE OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN. MEAN UPPER LVL TROF WILL REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF PA...RESULTING IN FREQUENT OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. ECENS/GEFS INDICATE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES SAT AND TUE. OOZ GFS APPEARS OUT OF PHASE WITH BULK OF OTHER MDLS WITH IT/S FASTER/STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND RESULTING WETTER SOLUTION ON FRIDAY. GEFS/ECENS MEAN 8H TEMPS IMPLY TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY JULY. SAT IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOL DUE TO CLOUDS/SHOWERS AND LOW LVL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH TEMPS A BIT ABV AVERAGE BY TUES OF NEXT WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... DID CUT BACK ON THE SHOWERS AND FOG ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL SITES AS OF 02Z. WILL ADJUST MORE ON THE 03Z TAF SET. STILL EXPECT SOME LOW CLDS AND FOG OVERNIGHT...BUT FOR A SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME NOW. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT AFTER 14Z WED. OUTLOOK... THU...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED TSRA MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80. FRI...MAINLY VFR. SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR...BUT A CHANCE SHRA/TSRA. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
NONE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.