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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCTP 192332
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
732 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL BRING CHILLY TEMPERATURES
TO THE AREA TONIGHT. AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
TO THE SE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...A WARMING TREND WILL SET
IN...COINCIDING WITH THE OFFICIAL BEGINNING OF SUMMER ON FRIDAY.
MAINLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AND MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
NOW AND THEN AFTER SUNDAY...BUT MOST OF THE TIME IT WILL REMAIN
DRY. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING MORE IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
CLEAR SKIES AND LOW PW WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT
ACRS NRN PA WHERE NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S.
EXPECT SOME READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...
WITH MOST LOCATIONS RIGHT AROUND 40. READING WILL RANGE THROUGH
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND TO THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL SHIFT EWD THIS PERIOD AS
A DEEP CLOSED LOW MOVES FROM THE PAC NW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. H5
HGTS CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLC COAST. THE
RETURN FLOW WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN DAYTIME TEMPS AND LLVL
MSTR/DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY LATER THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WARMER PATTERN WILL ARRIVE ON SCHEDULE WITH THE FIRST DAY OF
ASTRONOMICAL SUMMER /SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS/. MDL
DATA SUGGESTS ISOLD DIURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SPINE
OF THE N-CNTRL APPALCHNS INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS/S-CNTRL
RIDGES...BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT MOST AREAS TO STAY RAIN-
FREE. CAPPING INVERSION MAY BE A LIMITING/NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR
TERRAIN-INDUCED TSTMS LATER FRI AFT. LEFT THE FCST DRY FOR NOW.

NRN ROCKIES 500MB TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD INTO THE S-CNTRL
CANADIAN PRAIRIES OVER THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO RETROGRADE AND EXPAND WWD BACK ACRS THE SRN PLAINS. WITH
BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGING COVERING THE SRN 1/2 OF THE CONUS...THE
JET STREAM WILL BE CONFINED ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER - WHICH
IS WHERE IT SHOULD BE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THUS LOOKING AT MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS INTO AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WOULD BE NORTH OF PA...BUT A SLIGHT CHC TO CHC OF A SHOWER OR
STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER SAT...AS ANY WEAK SYSTEM COULD
TOUCH OFF SOME...GIVEN HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND TERRAIN FEATURES.

WHILE TEMPS COME UP...DEWPOINTS REALLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE
ANYTHING ABNORMAL. LOOKING AT MAINLY TEMPS BTWN 80-85F ACRS THE
ALLEGHENIES AND 85-90F E OF THE MTNS IN THE CNTRL RIDGES AND SUSQ
VLY. THE MAIN AREA OF EXTREME CONDITIONS WILL BE FURTHER WEST
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR BUILD INTO THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WX INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHC TO CHC OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SUN AND MON...
BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...NO SIG WX.

SUN-MON...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ASTRONOMICAL SUMMER BEGINS AT 104 AM EDT ON FRIDAY JUNE 21ST.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER/MARTIN/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE
CLIMATE...