Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 300210 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1010 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE KEYSTONE STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. FRIDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY TO CLOSE OUT JULY 2015.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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LEADING SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY OF ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS LATE THIS EVENING. SLOW MOVING CELLS WITH SOME DOWNPOURS ARE AFFECTING THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE ALLEGHENIES FROM INDIANA AND WESTMORELAND COUNTIES SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOMERSET AND GARRETT COUNTY (MD). EVEN THOUGH RICHEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST WITH THE TRAILING UPPER TROF OVER EASTERN IN AND WESTERN OHIO...WILL BUMP UP POPS SLIGHTLY IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS AS THE VORT SLOWLY WEAKENS AND TRACKS OVER MY SOUTHWEST COUNTIES BY 06Z TO 09Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAILING SHORTAVE ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IS IN STORE...ALONG WITH AREAS OF VALLEY FOG. POPS INCREASE ACCORDINGLY 09Z TO 12Z ACROSS NORTHWEST WITH APPROACHING FRONT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL CROSS THE CWA THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SPC OUTLOOK SHIFTS MARGINAL LINE EASTWARD...OUTSIDE OF MOST OF THE CWA...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRONGER STORMS FOR OUR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND SOME DOWNSLOPING...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE QUITE WARM DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A MEAN RIDGE IN THE WEST AND BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE AND FOCUSED ALONG WEAKENING NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS PROGRESSING SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES ABOUT EVERY 1-2 DAYS STARTING ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN INCREASING MODEL SPREAD. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN ZONES APPEAR TO BE MOST AFFECTED WITH LESS PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... WIDESPREAD VFR THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME HAZE/THIN FOG. MOST TERMINALS WILL SEE VIZ SLIP TO 2-4 MILES IN THE HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS LIKELY ADVECTING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AREAS IN THE VERY HUMID TROPICAL AIRMASS. BY MORNING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO WESTERN AREAS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN PA RATHER EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON SO SHOWERS/STORMS WILL NOT BE AN ALL DAY EVENT AT AREA AIRPORTS. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WEST TO EAST FROM LATE MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK... FRI...MAINLY VFR. SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. SUN...MAINLY VFR. MON...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...DEVOIR SHORT TERM...ROSS LONG TERM...STEINBUGL/TYBURSKI AVIATION...ROSS/DEVOIR/LA CORTE

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