Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 290011 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 811 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG...MID-SUMMER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM...WITH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK REMAINING COOLER THAN NORMAL. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH AXIS /AND ASSOCIATED SECONDARY COLD FRONT SLIDING SE ACROSS THE REGION SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80/ WILL BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE ISOLATED NEAR I-80 BETWEEN 22-23Z...BUT CONTINUE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS UNTIL AROUND 00Z...AND END ABOUT 01-02Z ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...THERE WILL BE JUST A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS DRIFTING TO THE SE. ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRAY FLASH OF LIGHTNING WITH THE BKN LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...MOST OF THE STRONGER 35-40DBZ CORES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE -20Z LEVEL...AND WITHIN 5 KFT OF THE ZERO C LEVEL. CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS. IT WILL FEEL A LITTLE CHILLY WITH MUCH OF THE REGION EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 50 OR LOWER. SERN AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 50S...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... TUESDAY WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF MINOR SHORTWAVES ROTATING DOWN IN THE FLOW UNDER THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP/COLD UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL MEAN THAT WE COULD SEE SOME MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BUT NO ORGANIZED PRECIP FOR THE MOST PART. IT WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE DEEP TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS DISPLAYED IN THE GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP BRING ABOUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR OVERALL SHOWER ACTIVITY...OTHERWISE DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REPRESENT TO MOST FAVORED TIMES FOR A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN RETROGRADING THE UPPER TROUGH...IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS ALLOWS FOR A SLIGHT REBOUND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND FOR AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HUMIDITY RETURNING TO SOMETHING MORE RECOGNIZABLE FOR THE HEIGHT OF SUMMER. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A TROUGH OF LOW PRES WILL SWING SE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...PRODUCING SCT SHRA AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF VSBY REDUCTION IN SPOTS. HOWEVER...THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LOW CIGS AT KBFD AND POTENTIALLY KJST...THE RESULT OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z...AS BLYR COOLS/STABILIZES. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF LOW CIGS SHOULD PERSIST ALL NIGHT OVR THE W MTNS. MDL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT EITHER IFR OF LOW MVFR CIGS AT KBFD AND KJST TONIGHT. FURTHER EAST...DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW SHOULD YIELD MAINLY VFR CONDS AT KAOO...KUNV AND KIPT. CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS VERY HIGH AT KMDT AND KLNS. ANY EARLY LOW CIGS SHOULD MIX OUT SHORTLY AFTER DAWN TUESDAY. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WIND...AS HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS BUILDS OVR THE STATE. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL PRODUCE PLENTY OF AFTN CU WITH CIGS ARND 5KFT. OUTLOOK... WED...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W MTNS. THU...AM FOG POSSIBLE NW MTNS. FRI-SAT...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/RXR NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/RXR SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL AVIATION...FITZGERALD/RXR

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