Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 281201 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 701 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MIXED WITH A LITTLE SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS THE MORNING. COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS...WHICH WILL FEEL QUITE COLD CONSIDERING HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... TRACKING SEVERAL BANDS OF FAST MOVING SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS W AND N CWA AT 0830Z. IN GENERAL THE SHOWERS HAVE WEAKENED AS THEY ADVANCE EAST. MOST ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS ENTERING WEST COUNTIES RIGHT NOW. HRRR WEAKENS THIS BAND AS IT MOVES DEEPER INTO THE CWA...THOUGH EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO PICK UP SOME MEASURABLE RAINFALL THIS MORNING. COLDER AIR ALSO ACCOMPANYING THESE SHOWERS AND MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE FALLING OR STEADY TEMPERATURES TODAY. SHOWERS WILL MIX AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ACROSS WESTERN MOUNTAINS WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... FRONTAL BAND SLOW SHIFTS SOUTH OF CWA THIS EVENING WITH ORGANIZED SHOWERS WANING. SHOWERS ACROSS PA/MD BORDER MAY HAVE ENOUGH COLD AIR MAY ARRIVE TO RESULT IN SNOW BUT QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. QUIET WEATHER ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES COOLER THEN PAST SEVERAL DAYS BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE DEC. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...A WAVE DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE AREA AND TRACKS NORTHEAST. MORE CONFIDENCE THAT IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA MON NIGHT AND TUE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTY BY MIDWEEK AND SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK...BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WAVES OF COLDER AIR DIVING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL FOR THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER. COOLER AIR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AS WE RING IN THE NEW YEAR. GEFS AND LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT STORM OF 2015 DEVELOPS NEXT WEEKEND. STORM TRACK WILL BE CRITICAL AS TO WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION FALLS ACROSS THE AREA. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK WEST OF PA BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF MILD AIR BACK INTO THE STATE WITH RAIN THE LIKELY DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM IS ALMOST A WEEK OUT. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE STRONG BAND THAT WAS ALONG THE COLD FRONT HAS DISSIPATED AS IT MOVED EASTWARD. REDUCING CONDITIONS REMAIN THROUGH THE WESTERN TAF SITES DUE TO THE UPSLOPE FLOW AND SHOWERS FROM THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE. EXPECT IFR AND LOWER AT BFD AND JST THROUGH MID MORNING. AS PRECIP FADES CIGS AND VSBYS WILL IMPROVE...THOUGH REDUCINGCIGS OF MVFR AND LOWER SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ TAF SITES...THOUGH MVFR SHOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING. VFR SHOULD RETURN LATE TODAY AS CLEARING SPREADS TO THE SOUTH AS THE FRONT PRESSES SLOWLY SOUTH THRU THE MID- ATLANTIC - EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT THERE. MVFR COULD RETURN TO JST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK... MON-THU...MAINLY VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ROSS NEAR TERM...ROSS SHORT TERM...ROSS LONG TERM...ROSS/HAGNER AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER

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