Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 042337 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 737 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING MIDWEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... STILL SOME LLVL CONVERGENCE CAUSING CUMULUS CONGESTUS OVER THE NRN MTNS...BUT RADAR ECHOES BARELY EXIST. HARD TO CALL THEM SHOWERS...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH SCHC POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. SOME ADDITIONAL SHRA COULD SNEAK INTO THE NW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK TROUGH PUSHES DOWN FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. STORMS TO THE S OF THE MD BORDER ARE KEEPING TO THE SOUTH. BUT NEAR TERM MDLS CONTINUE TO POP SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION NEAR OR EVEN OVER THE FAR SE. THIS IS REASONABLE AS THE FRONT DEFINED BY BIG DEWPOINT GRADIENT AND WIND SHIFT LIES JUST TO THE S OF PA. WILL HOLD JUST A SCHC IN THERE FOR THE NEXT HR OR TWO AS WELL. STILL JUST WORTH A 30 POP. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES FOR THE MOST PART. THE NW MAY SEE THOSE CLOUDS GO AWAY BUT HAVE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER WORK BACK IN AS THE TROUGH ADVNACES. MINS WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE GENERALLY CLEAR SKY AND DRY AIR AND THE LIGHT GRADIENT WIND. MINS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE L50S IN THE NRN MTNS WHERE THE CLOUDS SHOULD STOP THEM FROM FALLING INTO THE 40S. THE MILDER PLACES TONIGHT WILL BE OVER THE LOWER SUSQ. THOSE LOCATIONS WILL STOP AROUND 60F. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... SFC RIDGE AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE STATE ON WED...ACCOMPANIED BY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LGT WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY. COOLEST MID LEVEL TEMPS /I.E. ONLY AROUND PLUS 1C AT 700 MB...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6C PER KM/ COULD LEAD TO A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN MTNS WED AFTERNOON. POPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 10-15 PERCENT RANGE IN MOST PLACES. THE HIGH PLATEAU OF SULLIVAN COUNTY MIGHT SEE THE BEST CHC OF SHOWER FORMATION AFT 17Z WED. GEFS MEAN 8H TEMPS BTWN 10C-13C SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS FROM THE L70S OVR THE NW MTNS...TO THE L80S OVR THE SE COUNTIES. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW AS A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY HANGS OUT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY SO WILL KEEP SOME POP IN THE SRN PART OF THE STATE...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY UNTIL THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN A STACKED LOW WILL SLIDE EASTWARD FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MAY MAKE A MORE-OR- LESS CONSTANT RAIN INSTEAD OF SHOWERY/CONVECTIVE PRECIP. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE OFF LATE NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WILL BE A HERALD FOR QUIETER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK BEFORE WARMING UP INTO NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 00Z TAFS SENT. LEFT LOW CLDS AND FOG OUT OF IPT. THINK JUST ENOUGH WIND FROM THE WEST. HAVE TO WATCH BFD. LEFT FOG OUT FOR NOW...RAIN THERE EARLIER ENDED JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT...THUS HAD TIME TO DRY OUT SOME TODAY. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR PRACTICALLY THE ENTIRE TIME...AND IN ALL LOCATIONS LATE TODAY...RIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ASIDE FROM THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY LIGHT VALLEY FOG WED AND THURSDAY MORNING...ANY ISOLATED AND BRIEF SHOWERS SHOULDN/T BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANY SIGNIF VSBY REDUCTIONS. OUTLOOK... THU-FRI...VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THUR AFTERNOON...THEN A TRANSITION TO MVFR WITH A STEADY/WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPING FOR THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW PRES TRACKS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL PA. HEAVIEST RAIN OVER ONE INCH...AND POTENTIAL FOR IFR TO LIFR CIGS WILL BE NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KJST TO KMDT. SAT AND SUN...EARLY MORNING REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF FOG...OTHERWISE VFR WITH A LOW CHC OF MVFR IN ISOLATED P.M SHRA/TSTMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF PENN. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...DANGELO/CERU AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN

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