Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCTP 012315 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 615 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...AND CROSS THE STATE ON MONDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA INTO MONDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...WITH LOW WIND CHILLS TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY IN THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/... BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW MOVED QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION SINCE 3 PM. HEAVIEST BANDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER NOW...BUT WITH LOW TRACKING TOWARD PA...EXPECT MORE HEAVY BANDS THIS EVENING. ACROSS THE SE...JUST A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SO FAR AT LNS. THIS FITS GOOD WITH THE CURRENT PACKAGE. ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH...RADAR RETURNS NOW WEAK...LITTLE SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THIS AREA. BASED ON THIS AND MODEL DATA...EXPECT SOME PATCHY MIXED PCPN TO START TO MIX IN ACROSS THIS AREA THIS EVENING. WILL KEEP CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR NOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE AS NEEDED. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. PRETTY SOLID BAND OF WAA SNOW IS PUSHING THROUGH WRN PA BUT NOT MUCH BEHIND IT. MESO MODELS HAVE BEEN PLAYING THAT BREAK UP FOR A LITTLE WHILE...AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT IS COMING TO FRUITION. THIS WILL YIELD A 3-4 HOUR BREAK IN THE SNOW FOR MOST PLACES. WHILE IT HAS BEEN SNOWING ALL DAY OUT THE WINDOW...IT STILL REALLY HAS NOT STARTED STICKING TO ANYTHING. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE CASE ALMOST EVERYWHERE IN THE CWA JUDGING BY WEB CAMS. BUT THE HIGHER ELEVS OF THE LAURELS SHOULD BE GETTING WHITE ANY TIME NOW. WILL JUST WORK THE POPS AROUND TO TRY TO SHOW THAT LITTLE BREAK...BUT IT IS SUCH A SMALL-SCALE FEATURE THAT IT MAY JUST END UP WASHING OUT IN THE BIGGER PICTURE. TEMPS DANCING AROUND 32F IN THE CENTRAL COS BUT WELL INTO THE M30S IN THE SE. PRECIP THERE WILL BE VERY LIGHT UNTIL MUCH LATER/THIS EVENING. SO...P-TYPE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN. CERTAINLY IF IT DECIDES TO SNOW HEAVILY...IT WILL BE SNOW FOR THAT TIME...BUT WILL LIKELY BE A MIX WHEN LIGHT IN THE S/SE. TEMPS MOVE LITTLE ALL EVENING...BUT WILL PROBABLY COOL JUST A LITTLE WITH WET BULBING. DEWPOINTS ALREADY RISING SOME LOCALLY. && .SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... THE BEST PERIOD OF SNOW CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE BETWEEN 00-09Z WITH THE WORST OF IT ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA. THE WARM AIR ALOFT LOOKS TO MAKE IN-ROADS ALL THE WAY TO I-80 BY SUNRISE MONDAY. THUS...THE ICING POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE. SO WHILE THE SNOW AMOUNTS - ESPECIALLY IF YOU ONLY MEASURE IN THE MORNING - WILL BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED IN THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA...THERE IS STILL SOME /WEAK/ JUSTIFICATION FOR HOLDING ONTO THE WARNING ALONG THE RTE 22 CORRIDOR...FOR NOW. THE QPF IS A MIXED-BAG OF SIGNALS RIGHT NOW. GFS AND EURO ARE HOLDING ONTO 0.80 OR MORE IN THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY REAL SNOW THERE. THE NAM AND THE SREF MEAN TOTALS THERE ARE ONLY ABOUT 0.50. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PARTY LINE OF 8-10 FOR A STORM TOTAL...BUT REWORKED THE NUMBERS DOWN BARELY AN INCH ON THE WHOLE SO THE TERRIBLE DARK BLUE OF 10-14 DOES NOT HIT PEOPLE IN THE FACE. AGAIN...JUST HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF A DOWNWARD MOVE ON THE SNOW. THIS IS DUE TO THE RELATIVELY HIGH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS RANGE. STILL LOOKS LIKE A SOLID WARNING ANY WAY YOU SLICE IT UP FOR OUR ENTIRE NRN HALF. SOME PRETTY WICKED SF RATES WILL BE HAD OVERNIGHT AND VERY EARLY MONDAY IN THE NORTH AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS STATE COLLEGE AND SUNBURY BUT MOST LIKELY - THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THOSE TWO CITIES. PRECIP CUTS OFF PRETTY QUICKLY AFTER 12Z/14Z IN THE CENTRAL COS. THE EAST MAY SEE PRECIP LINGER INTO THE MID MORNING AS THE COLD AIR MOVES IN AND TEMPS DROP. AFTER WHAT MAY ONLY BE A BRIEF BREAK...THE NW WINDS WILL UPSLOPE INTO THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS. CAA WILL CREATE NUMEROUS SHSN OVER THE WRN HIGH TERRAIN AND FLURRIES ELSEWHERE. THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME DECENT SHSN AS THE PRECIP ENDS IN THE SERN THIRD OF THE AREA. YET ANOTHER REASON TO NOT MONKEY WITH THE WARNINGS/ADVYS JUST YET. IT COULD BE A MESSY COMMUTE FOR GROUNDHOG MORNING. WINDS WILL GET STRONG AND RATHER GUSTY - ESP ON THE HILL TOPS AND IN THE SERN THIRD/DOWNSLOPE AREAS CLOSEST TO THE DEEPENING LOW MOVING OFF THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MAIN IMPACTS FROM WINTER STORM WILL HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM REGION BY MON NIGHT...BUT ARCTIC AIR PUSHING IN WILL BRING A VERY COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH AND BELOW ZERO NORTH. THOUGH STRONGER WINDS IN THE EVENING WILL BE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT...ENOUGH OF A BREEZE WILL REMAIN TO DROP WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO FOR ALL...WITH NORTHERN MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS POSSIBLY NEEDING A WIND CHILL ADVISORY /-15F/ MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. ENSEMBLE MEAN 5H PATTERN SHOWS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER DIVING SE INTO THE REGION WED/THU. ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE TRACKS ASSOC SFC LOW NORTH OF THE STATE EARLY WED...LIKELY PRODUCING A BIT OF LGT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN PA. A WEAK LOW ON TRAILING COLD FRONT COULD SUPPORT SOME LINGERING LGT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION /MAINLY ALLEGHENIES/ INTO EARLY THURSDAY. MODERATING TEMPS AHEAD OF CLIPPER COULD RESULT IN A DAY OF NEAR NORMAL HIGHS WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR LOOKS NEARLY CERTAIN BEHIND CLIPPER LATE THIS WEEK. NO RESPITE FROM THE BLW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED...AS LATEST MED RANGE GUIDANCE MAINTAINS UPPER LVL TROF AXIS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS. && .AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... DETERIORATING FLYING CONDS EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND EVENING...AS LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE MIDWEST...SPREADING SNOW AND LOWERING CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL PA. AT 17Z...IFR CONDS ALREADY NOTED ACROSS WESTERN PA. UPSTREAM RADAR RETURNS AND LATEST HRRR OUTPUT SUGGESTS IFR CONDS WILL DEVELOP AT KAOO/KUNV/KIPT BTWN 19Z-21Z. ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...LATEST MDL DATA SUGGESTS A BAND OF LGT SNOW/VIS REDUCTIONS COULD COME THROUGH BTWN 22Z-01Z AT KMDT/KLNS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDS WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY AT KMDT/KLNS BTWN 03Z-06Z...AS HEAVIEST SNOW ARRIVES. WARMER AIR WORKING INTO THE STATE WILL CHANGE SNOW TO EITHER RAIN OR FZRA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER....WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE IN CONTINUING PRECIP AND LOW CIGS RESULTING FROM MOIST SE FLOW ASCENDING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL PA. MARGINAL LLWS REMAINS A POSSIBILITY LATE TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN PA...AS CORE OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN JUST BLW CRITERIA. MARKED IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BTWN 15Z-18Z MONDAY...AS LOW PRES PASSES EAST OF THE AREA...AND DRIER NW FLOW DEVELOPS. FOCUS WILL SHIFT TOWARD STRONG GUSTY WINDS MON PM. GUSTS TO ARND 40KTS ARE POSSIBLE MON AFTN AND EVENING...AS STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM PASSES EAST OF PA. OUTLOOK... MON...AM RAIN/SNOW AND LOW CIGS. PM GUSTY NW WINDS. TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. WED...AM LGT SNOW POSSIBLE NW MTNS. THU...AM LGT SNOW POSSIBLE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ004>006- 010>012-017>019-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-058. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ033>036- 064>066. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ024>028-056- 057-059-063. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO/MARTIN SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...FITZGERALD AVIATION...FITZGERALD

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.