Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 302140 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 540 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cut off upper low over the Ohio Valley will slowly drift northeast over the next several days, clearing the region by early next week. A ridge of high pressure will build east into Pennsylvania behind this system and will likely remain over the area through the end of the work week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Evening water vapor loop showing cut off upper low over the Ohio Valley. Deep, moist easterly flow ahead of this system continues to produce stratus and areas of drizzle across central Pa as of 21Z. Shortwave rotating up east side of upper low should produce an increasing chance of measurable rain after midnight. Regional radar at 21Z shows band of showers over the Virginias and model data indicates these showers will shift northward overnight with arrival of shortwave and associated low lvl jet. Temps already close to dwpts, so expect little change in temps overnight, with readings holding in the 50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Another murky day expected across central PA Saturday with low coverage of showers happening at just about any one time. Not expecting anything particularly organized or heavy...but the morning hours could see the most persistent shower activity as deep layer moisture associated with shortwave lifting northward over eastern PA brushes my eastern zones.. Following the cooler EC and NAM guidance for max temps ranging from the upper 50s across the higher...to mid 60s in the Susq Valley on Saturday...but this is still higher than NBM. GFS MOS guidance looks to be up to several deg too warm considering solid overcast and persistent llvl easterly flow. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Latest operational models track the persistent and slow-moving cut-off low to near Detroit at 12z Sunday, before it finally begins to turn east and gradually fills in as it gets picked up in the longwave flow and tracks across NY state Monday. The results on the forecast will be a continuation of showery weather through the weekend, though with just light amounts. Followed by a slight chance for showers across the north early next week along with cold air advection filtering into the region early next week. Surface high pushing the cooler air our way slides off the New England coast midweek, but persistent easterly flow feeding into the Mid-Atlantic region should keep plenty of clouds around along with at least a chance for light showers/drizzle across southern half of CWA through midweek. Latest on Hurricane Matthew in the 12z runs - it generally follows a similar path to prev runs in the GFS brushing the Carolina before the storm begins to drift NE and away from the VA/NJ coast (this generally agrees with NCAR guidance as well). Operational ECMWF now parks the storm over the Bahamas, which is a low confidence solution. Temperatures will be slightly below normal through the weekend, before shifting to slightly above normal by the middle of next week...then possibly dipping back to near normal as clouds (at least the mid and high variety) thicken-up to the NW of Matthew. && .AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Widespread MVFR-IFR conditions through tonight. Pockets of -RA/BR/DZ. Not much change expected before Sunday. Changes made to 21Z TAFS, which I would be doing shortly anyway for 00Z TAFS. Outlook... Sun...MVFR cigs. Chc -SHRA. Mon-Tue...Gradual improvement likely. Wed...Mainly VFR.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Fitzgerald NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...DeVoir LONG TERM...RXR/Steinbugl AVIATION...Martin

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