Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 140726 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 226 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG BUT QUICKLY-MOVING SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN FORM TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE ON MONDAY. A WINTRY MIX AND PERHAPS PLAIN RAIN WILL OCCUR AFTER AN INITIAL PERIOD OF SNOW. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER SHOULD PASS OVER EASTERN PA ON TUESDAY. LATER IN THE WEEK...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ALOFT WITH MUCH WARMER AIR FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... FALLING INVERSION HGTS UPON APPROACH OF SFC HIGH CAUSING REMAINING LAKE EFFECT SHSN TO DWINDLE EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS ACROSS THE FAVORED SNOWBELT OF NW WARREN CO BTWN 06Z-09Z THEN PROBABLY ONLY FLURRIES LEFT BY DAWN ACROSS THE NW. 06Z TEMPS ALREADY BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTH AND EXPECT SEVERAL MORE DEG OF COOLING AS CLOUDS BREAK AND WINDS DIE DOWN. CURRENT WCHILLS RUNNING FROM ARND 20BLW ACROSS THE N MTNS TO BTWN 5-10BLW IN THE SOUTH. DON/T EXPECT MUCH CHANGE TO THESE NUMBERS THRU 8AM...AS FALLING TEMPS SHOULD BE BALANCED BY DIMINISHING WIND. WCHILL ADVY/WARN REMAIN IN PLACE THRU 16Z. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. WINDS SLACKEN AND TEMPS ONLY AS MILD AS SAT...BUT SHOULD FEEL BETTER. THE HIGH MOVES RAPIDLY TO THE EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. EARLY RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD DROP TEMPERATURES OFF FAST SUNDAY EVENING. BUT RETURN FLOW COULD CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY RISE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. GOING TO BE INTERESTING MONDAY-TUESDAY WEATHER! && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... *IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: POTENTIAL WINTER STORM EARLY NEXT WEEK. DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR MONDAY...TUE FRAME. MAIN THING WAS TO INSERT SOME ZR INTO THE GRIDS AFTER 00Z TUE...THROUGH LATE TUESDAY MORNING. BASED ON WPC GRAPHICS. ALSO DID UP POPS SOME. DID NOT DO A LOT WITH SNOW AMTS SO FAR. MAY ADJUST MORE LATER. EC MAY BE TO FAR WEST...BUT EITHER WAY...EXPECT SOME SNOW TO PILE UP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PA BY LATE MONDAY AFT...ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES...AS SYSTEM LIFTS NE FAST...AND WARM ADVECTION WAITS FOR NO MAN. MORE DETAIL BELOW. CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL LIGHT SNOW COULD ARRIVE IN SOUTHWESTERN AREAS MONDAY MORNING AS INDICATED IN SOME ENSEMBLE FORECASTS. BULK OF MED RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME LGT SNOW ARRIVING MONDAY...AS SFC HIGH DRIFTS OFF THE COAST AND MILDER SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERRUNS RETREATING ARCTIC AIR MASS. HOWEVER...THE BIGGER CONCERN INVOLVES DIGGING UPPER TROF OVR THE MISS VALLEY AND ASSOC SFC LOW PRESSURE LIFTING UP THE APPALACHIANS. MDL SPREAD CONTINUES TO NARROW...WITH MOST RUNS TRACKING SFC LOW ACROSS EASTERN PA TUESDAY. THIS TRACK WOULD CERTAINLY FAVOR RAIN ACROSS EASTERN PA AND RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS WESTERN PA. GIVEN INHERENT MDL UNCERTAINTIES THIS FAR OUT...WILL MAINTAIN RAIN/SNOW IN THE FCST FOR MOST OF CENTRAL PA MON NIGHT-TUES. HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BASED ON CONVERGING MDL SOLUTIONS. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING ACROSS EASTERN PA...GIVEN RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT POTENTIAL. LATEST MDL ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECASTS USING NAEFS SUGGESTS MINOR FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY BY TUES. WPC ALSO HAS HIGHLIGHTED SE PA FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF FLOODING TUESDAY. EXPECT BULK OF PCPN TO BE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE TUE AM. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WED. DID UP POPS SOME ACROSS THE WEST. MOISTURE IS LIMITED. NOT A BAD DAY FOR THU OR FRI...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. PERHAPS A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS APPEAR LIKELY LATER NEXT WEEK...AS HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TO THE WEST OF PA. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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ARCTIC AIR OVER CENTRAL PA AS W/NW FLOW CONTINUES. SPEEDS/GUSTS GRADUALLY COMING DOWN OVER LAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH GUSTINESS COMING TO AN END IN MAJORITY OF LOCALES OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. AS TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD...WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER 1035MB HIGH AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN AND BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF CENTRAL PA. THOUGH MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER IN PARTS OF WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN AROUND KBFD-KJST...LAYER WILL BECOME SO DRY THAT EVEN LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO KEEP STRATOCU AROUND BY SUNRISE. WIDESPREAD VFR FOR SUNDAY /WITH LIGHTER WINDS/...BUT PERIOD OF NICE WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS CIG RESTRICTIONS SLIDE IN FROM THE SW AGAIN STARTING SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM. SNOW AND ASSORTED WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY AFFECT FLYING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OUTLOOK... SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED MAINLY VFR. MON...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS DEVELOP WITH SNOW DEVELOPING. MON NIGHT AND TUE...SNOW LIKELY WRN HALF OF PENN...WITH RAIN AND/OR SNOW IN THE SE. WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS SET IN. LLWS POSS SE. WED...ANOTHER WAVE SLIDES THROUGH KEEPING RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW...ESP OVER THE WEST. THU...MAINLY VFR.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ004>006- 037-041-042. WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ010>012-017>019-024>028-033>036-045-046-049>053-056>059- 063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GRUMM NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...GRUMM LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER/MARTIN AVIATION...RXR

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