Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 200356 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1156 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN RETURN AND IT WILL WARM UP AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... HIGH CLOUDS STILL MAINLY OPAQUE AND WILL CONTINUE THAT WAY THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE NIGHT AS UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH THROWS MOISTURE OVER THE RIDGE. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL DEEP OVERHEAD. EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE HIGH CLOUDS...THEY SHOULD PROBABLY HELP IN KEEPING THE TEMPS UP JUST ENOUGH OVER THE SE FOR THOSE AREAS TO NOT SEE A WIDESPREAD FROST TONIGHT. SOME POCKETS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS...BUT OT EVEN ENOUGH TO MENTION. TEMPS CURRENTLY MUCH HIGHER THAN THE FCST CURVE WAS...AND SHOULD CONTINUE THAT WAY AS WINDS SHOULD NOT TOTALLY DIE OFF DUE TO SOME GRADIENT. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES UNDER HIGHER CLOUDS CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO BE LIGHTER AS RIDGE AXIS RESIDES OVER EASTERN PA/NJ BORDER AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW STARTS TO GET ESTABLISHED. AFTER A CHILLY START...SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT DAY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINING NEAR BELOW 5 PERCENT. HIGHS WILL WARM THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER 60S THROUGHOUT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... STILL SOME HIGH CLDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST MONDAY. DID EDGE TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE SUNDAY NIGHT...GIVEN THE HIGH LOCATION AND DRY AIR. AS WITH THE CASE WITH EASTER...MONDAY LOOKS NICE TOO. A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. RETURN FLOW BRINGS DEWPOINTS UP SOME...PW VALUES NOT REAL HIGH...HARD TO SEE QPF MUCH OVER .25. DID CUT POPS BACK SOME FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. ALSO ADDED SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR NORTH. COLDER FOR WED. DRY CONDITIONS FOR THU. A CHC OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS AND HEATING COULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. DRY SLOT COULD LIMIT SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT. SOME SPREAD IN MODELS...COULD END UP WITH CUTOFF LOW FURTHER SE. THIS WOULD MAKE FOR NOT ONLY A COOL WEEKEND...BUT MORE IN A WAY OF BEING WET. ANYWAY...ENJOY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...HAPPY EASTER...HAPPY SPRING. SO FAR TWO DRY WEEKENDS IN A ROW...A BIG CHANGE FROM MUCH OF THE YEAR SO FAR. && .AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT. THERE WLIL BE SOME STRONGER WINDS OVERHEAD BUT SINCE THE REGION WILL BE DECOUPLED IT SHOULDN/T AFFECT TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OUTLOOK... SUN-MON...NO SIG WX. TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE. THU...MVFR TO VFR...BREEZY.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DEVOIR LONG TERM...MARTIN AVIATION...DEVOIR/CERU

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