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511
FXUS61 KCTP 060233
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1033 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Isolated showers and a few thunderstorms will fade overnight as
a less than stellar weekend of weather wraps up. The good news
is that high pressure slowly building eastward from the central
Great Lakes will bring some drying and brightening to northern
and central Pennsylvania by Monday and Tuesday, but the south
will remain on the cloudy side with some showers. The pattern
remains unsettled mid to late week with weather systems bringing
rain chances Tuesday night into Wednesday, and Wednesday night
into Thursday, followed by a cooling trend into next weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Isold to sct shra with a few rumbles of thunder are still
crossing the Alleghenies late this evening and will fade as we
go overnight. Main story overnight is the higher elevation fog
potential with already 1/2sm or less vsbys widespread through
Schuylkill County along I-81, where locally dense fog is likely
into the predawn hours. It will be quite mild forecast lows
ranging from the low 50s to around 60, which is 10 to 15
degrees above normal for early May.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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Early morning low clouds and locally dense fog should give way
to some sun by Monday afternoon especially across the northern
half of CPA as high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes
directs drier/lower pwat air into the region. Following a rather
cool and damp weekend, temperatures are forecast to trend much
warmer with fcst maxes getting back into the 70-80F range. The
aforementioned frontal boundary settling near the MD line will
maintain a low chance of showers/t-storms over the southern tier
into Monday night. Expect some fog again Monday night with lows
ranging from the mid 40s along the NY border to around 60F in
the southern tier.

Upper level ridging over PA indicates warmer conditions are
likely Tuesday with highs reaching the upper 70s to near 80F.
However, a warm front lifting out of the Ohio Valley and a 500mb
short wave could result in increasing clouds with a PM
shower/tsra, primarily across the western counties.
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Unsettled weather will continue into the extended period.
Wednesday looks to be another warm day, with ensemble mean
850mb temps of 16C suggesting max temps well into the 80s
across the Lower Susq Valley.

The best chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms
continues to be focused on Thursday, with a deepening upstream
trough and sfc low pressure riding up the Ohio Valley and
across the area.

The surface low and deepest moisture is progged to shift east
of the area Thursday night. However, falling heights ahead of
the upper trough will likely support scattered diurnal
convection Friday and Saturday, along with a downward trend in
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A moist southeast flow off of the Atlantic Ocean will maintain
stratus over Central PA tonight with widespread IFR/LIFR cigs
and ridgetop fog. Even over the Laurel Highlands, where stratus
broke this afternoon, expect low clouds to redevelop this
evening per latest model guidance.

Improving flying conditions look likely Monday as high pressure
builds into the region from the Grt Lks, causing winds to shift
from southeast to north. Latest forecast soundings and ensemble
prob charts support a transition to MVFR during early afternoon
and potentially VFR by late in the day.

Low pressure lifting up the Ohio Valley could spread showers and
reduced cigs into the southern tier of PA after sunset Monday
evening.

Outlook...

Tue...AM low cigs/showers possible southern tier of PA. Isold
evening tsra impacts possible W Mtns.

Wed...AM low cigs/tsra possible.

Thu...Rain/low cigs likely.

Fri...Showers/low cigs possible, mainly AM.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Steinbugl/Bowen
NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Steinbugl/Bowen
SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Steinbugl/Bowen
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/Evanego
AVIATION...Fitzgerald