-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCTP 171354
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
954 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE FRONTS WILL CROSS THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY
AND TONIGHT...BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. MOST
AREAS WILL BE DRY MOST OF THE TIME...DESPITE THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL ROLL EAST THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY. GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY ARE
EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND COVERS MOST
OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
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EARLIER LOW CRUD IS MIXING AWAY AND SKY MOSTLY SUNNY EVERYWHERE
BUT IN THE SW/SC MTS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY EVIDENT IN THE WIND SHIFT
RIGHT ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE STILL TRIGGERING A FEW SHRA IN
THE SW/SC MTS. THUNDER NOW INTO LAURELS AND WILL MENTION T IN THE
SRN TIER FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THEN...THE HIGHEST CHC POPS AND
CHC T WILL BE OVER THE NORTH WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHC POPS OVER
THE FAR SOUTH AS CURRENT BOUNDARY LINGERS AND ANOTHER DROPS DOWN
FROM THE LOWER LAKES. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER ELSEWHERE IN
THE HEAT OF THE DAY...THOUGH. SO...WILL HOLD FCST VERY CLOSE BUT
RAISE POPS A LITTLE OVER THE NERN COS WHERE MOST MDL GUID DOES POP
SCT SHRA AND COVG MAY NEAR 50 PCT.

PREV FCST...
BOUNDARY SHUD CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING...KEEPING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF CENTRAL
PA THIS MORNING. ANOTHER UPSTREAM FRONT LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
GLAKS THIS MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERN TIER BY LATE THIS MORNING...INCREASING POPS FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. AREAL COVERAGE
PROBABLY WON`T EXCEED 30 PERCENT AT ANY GIVEN TIME THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AND MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY MOST OF THE TIME.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTHWEST TO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE SUSQ RIVER VALLEY. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S
WILL SLIGHTLY LOWER...BUT WITH LESS OF A BREEZE AND A LITTLE MORE
SUNSHINE IT WILL FEEL A BIT MORE UNCOMFORTABLE.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
STALL NEAR THE MASON/DIXON TONIGHT WHILE 5H TROF ARRIVES OVERHEAD...
CONTINUING POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF CWA. THIS BOUNDARY MAY
CONTINUE TO BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ON TUESDAY AS IT MEANDERS
NORTHWARD AGAIN...AND DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE WITH WIDESPREAD PW
GREATER THAN 1.0" RETURNS TO CENTRAL PA. SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY
SLC TO CHC POPS FOR A FEW ROUNDS OF CONVECTION AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY MAXES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THROUGHOUT... RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROAD TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST U.S. WILL BRING AN UNSETTLED START TO
THE WEEK...BUT RIDGE BUILDING IN STARTING MIDWEEK WILL BRING DRY
AND COOLER WEATHER BEFORE MORE HUMID AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS RETURN
FOR THE WEEKEND.

NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS GLAKES...WHICH WILL KICK THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH AND USHER IN BEGINNING OF A PERIOD OF DRIER
AND COOLER WEATHER.

WE/LL SEE A FEW CHILLIER NIGHTS...ESP ACROSS THE NORTH /THE
COLDEST BEING WED NIGHT WITH READINGS DIPPING INTO THE 40S NORTH
OF I-80/ AS HIGH SETTLES IN. BUT SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW BEGINS
ON THU AS RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS TO OUR EAST. AS LOWER LEVELS BEGIN TO
SLOWLY MOISTEN BACK UP...ISOLATED LATE DAY TSTMS AGAIN BECOME
POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN HALF THU AND ESP FRI.

HEIGHTS RISE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. SURGE OF MOISTURE ALSO GETS
SHUNTED EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. BRINGING A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN THE HEAT AND ESPECIALLY HUMIDITY. TSTM PROBABILITIES
INCREASE SAT...PEAKING ON SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS
THE GLAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING A GRADUAL CHANGE IN AIRMASS
BACK TOWARD DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS THROUGH
THE MORNING. LOWER CIGS HAVE MIXED AWAY AND ALL SITES ARE OR WILL
BE VFR IN THE NEXT HOUR. JUST JST...IN THE VCTY OF THE SHRA...AND
UNV...WHICH IS SCATTERERING OUT NOW...ARE STILL MVFR.

A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH PA TODAY...KEEPING AN ISOLD
SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SRN TIER THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT MDT/LNS COULD PICK UP A SHOWER OR TSRA
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE PASSING INSTABILITY. AS THE TIMING WILL
VARY HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE TAFS. ALSO...THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER
BUT STILL STEALTHY FRONT DROPPING DOWN ACROSS WRN NY AND INTO NRN
PA WILL ALSO TOUCH OF SCT SHRA/TSRA IN THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING.
WILL ALSO WAIT FOR A FEW HOURS TO DECIDE WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL BE
PRUDENT TO MENTION ANYTHING MORE THAN VCSH AT KIPT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY AM. PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS SOUTH.
WED-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
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&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU