Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 191535 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1135 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WILL BE INTERRUPTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE POOLS OVER THE CENTRAL PA MOUNTAINS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MORE FAIR AND COOL WEATHER FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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VIS SATL IMAGERY AND SFC OBS SHOW THAT LOW CLOUDS AND HAVE FOG DISSIPATED...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL PA INTO TH AFTENON HOURS. TEMPS SHOULD RESPOND NICELY...REACHING INTO 60S AND L70S. THESE VALUES ARE JUST A FEW DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF FALL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT WILL FORCE A LONG-FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC TO ASCEND THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL PA. THIS SHOULD CREATE A BLANKET OF CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE/FOG AS IT SETTLES IN THROUGH THE NIGHT. BUT...THE WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER ON SATURDAY AND SHOULD ALLEVIATE THE LOW-CLOUD PROBLEM LATE IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. SO OVERNIGHT MINS WILL LIKELY BE A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL. WITH THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY...MAXES WILL TRY TO RUN UP INTO THE 70S FOR MOST PLACES - ESP IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SE WHERE THERE SHOULD BE LESS CLOUD COVER. WILL HOLD THE TEMPS AROUND 70F ALONG THE SPINE OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL TAKE LONGEST TO BREAK. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO CARVE OUT A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS A DEVELOPING SYSTEM APPROACHES PA FOR SUN/MON. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S...AND TAKING A RUN AT 80F IN THE SE. WE/LL ALSO GET A BREAK FROM OUR RUN OF CHILLY OVERNIGHTS AS LOWS REMAIN AROUND 60F SAT NIGHT. THE CENTER OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH...BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH PA SUNDAY INTO SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN/SHOWERS THROUGH DURATION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS GENERALLY AGREEING ON POTENTIAL FOR A TENTH TO POTENTIALLY A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF QPF. THE 500 HPA TROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT BOTTOMS OUT OVER THE REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MENTION FOR SCT INSTABILITY SHOWERS...MAINLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN OF N/W CWA. COOLER AIR ON NW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH MONDAY/S HIGHS ABOUT 8-10F COOLER AND TUESDAY SLIPPING ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES AS TROUGH LIFTS AWAY TO THE NE. LOOKS LIKE LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S AGAIN BECOME LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS FOR MIDWEEK AS LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A LARGE AND RATHER STRONG AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SRN QUEBEC LATE THIS MORNING WILL CREATE A LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND AT ALL TAF SITES TODAY...BEFORE THE WIND DIRECTION VEERS AROUND TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. LOW CIGS/STRATUS CLOUDS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE DISSIPATED AT ALL TAF SITES AND JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE ELSE ACROSS CENTRAL PA. VFR EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS THROUGH 04-06ZZ SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD LOWS CIGS IN THE LOW MVFR TO IFR RANGE /WITH SOME DRIZZLE/ LOOK LIKELY AT MANY AIRFIELDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY AS THE SERLY-SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW TRANSPORTS ATLANTIC MOISTURE /FROM NEAR THE VA/NC COAST/ OVER THE APPALACHIANS. LLWS IS ALSO PROBABLE AT ALL TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING THANKS TO A MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND OF 30-35 KTS AT 1.5-2KFT AGL TOPPING THE 5-10KT SSERLY SFC WIND. OUTLOOK... SAT...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSSIBLE. SUN...SLIGHT CHC OF PM TSRA IMPACTS W MTNS. MON-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...LAMBERT/GARTNER

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