Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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674 FXUS61 KCTP 301443 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1043 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will push across Pennsylvania this Memorial Day. A ridge of high pressure will build east into the region for midweek. A slow moving cold front will likely push into the region from the Great Lakes by late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Weak cold front pushing towards the region from eastern Ohio late this morning. Clouds have pushed east of the Susq River Valley with nice heating taking place across all of central Pa. Nudged highs upward as a result. Still no precip showing up along the approaching boundary...but with weak CIN and weak lift...do expected at least isolated coverage of showers and storms beginning by noontime and propogating southeastward across central PA through the mid to late afternoon hours. Relatively modest CAPE and wind shear profiles point toward a limited risk of svr wx. Slightly stronger mid lvl flow indicated across northeast Pa, where SPC conts to paint a marginal svr wx risk late today. ighs should range from the upper 70s to the mid 80s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Any lingering evening shra/tsra across eastern Pa should diminish by late tonight, as weak cold front slowly pushes thru. Clearing skies, light wind and wet ground in spots will likely lead to patchy fog late tonight. Ridging at sfc and aloft build into central Pa Tuesday, bringing fair and warm wx. Mdl soundings support msunny skies and high temps from the u70s ovr the Allegheny Plateau, to the m80s ovr the Susq Valley. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... All med range guidance still indicating fair/warm wx Wednesday, as upper lvl ridge crests ovr the region. Low lvl flow expected to turn to the east, likely resulting in a slightly cooler day across the eastern half of the state. Not much spread noted in med range guidance thru late week, with bulk of solutions tracking upper low north of Pa, as slow-moving sfc cold front works into Central Pa either late Thu or Friday. Highest (chc) Pops in the extended fcst will coincide with passage of this cold front. However, both ECENS and NAEFS indicating a deepening upper trof across the Grt Lks/Ohio Vall next weekend, which would likely mean cooler and potentially showery wx for Pa. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A weak cold front will push across Pennsylvania this Memorial Day. A ridge of high pressure will build in for midweek. VFR conds will prevail mid to late morning before a line of isold to sct shra/tsra and mvfr cigs tracks across central PA. This will provide the potential for brief local reductions, followed by high pressure and more settled weather building into the region through midweek /with early morning patchy fog/. OUTLOOK... Tue-Wed...No sig wx. Local fog reductions poss around dawn. Thu...Chance of showers/tstms west. A.M. cig reductions poss west. Fri...Cold front. Scattered showers/thunderstorms with restrictions poss.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald LONG TERM...Fitzgerald AVIATION...DeVoir/RXR

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