Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 011210 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 810 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY UNTIL A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BRINGS DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MID WEEK. HUMIDITY WILL RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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12Z UPDATE...VERY MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST. RADAR STILL SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS STILL DRIFTING NEWD EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT FOG/LOW STRATUS TO BREAK UP BY 14Z WITH A GENERAL DECREASE IN CLOUDS INTO MID-DAY. LATEST HIRES MODELS KEEP THE AREA MAINLY DRY THRU THE MORNING WITH INCR THREAT OF ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION HEADING INTO THE AFTN HOURS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HARD TO PUT A FINGER ON A COHERENT TRIGGER FOR ORGANIZED ACTIVITY TODAY AS WE STAY MIRED IN A HUMID AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. UPPER HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND SLIGHTLY WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE TODAY...RESULTING IN A BRIEF LOWERING OF ATMOSPHERIC PWATS. ENSEMBLES SHOW DEEPEST MOISTURE SLOWLY RETREATING OFF TO THE EAST TODAY...AND THIS IS WHERE BOTH THE GEFS/SREF HAVE THEIR HIGHEST POPS. AN OVERALL DRYING TREND IN THE DEEP MOISTURE IS SHOWN OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...LEADING TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT MOST OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD MANAGE TO REMAIN DRY...OR AT LEAST ONLY BE CHALLENGED BY THE CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER. IT WOULD BE NICE TO END THE TRADITIONAL SUMMER ON A DRY NOTE...BUT THE LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN FORCE AT LEAST THE MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM. IT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY WITH MOST AREAS SEEING TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE 80S. DEWPOINTS WELL UP INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE SUMMERY. THERE COULD BE A SHOWER REACHING FAR WESTERN PA LATER TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT EDGES INTO THE LOWER GR LAKES...BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN MILD AND DRY BUT ON THE MUGGY SIDE FOR THE FIRST DAYS OF SEPTEMBER.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY MODEST INSTABILITY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE SHEARING OUT MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING. REGARDLESS IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...AND WITH SOME RESPECTABLE WINDS ALOFT...WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED STRONG STRONGER STORMS AND LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS. SPC HAS NOT OUTLOOKED US FOR SEVERE CITING THE WEAKENING TROUGH AND PROGGED MEAGER LAPSE RATES...AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE. ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY IS IN STORE WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S OVER THE NW TO NEAR 90 OVER THE LOWER SUSQ. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR MIDWEEK...BRINGING AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS OF MILD AND LESS HUMID WEATHER. THE HIGH SHOULD MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK ALLOWING A RETURN FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION STARTING FRIDAY. GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REBOUND OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AFTER THE UPDATE AT 09Z...LNS WENT DOWN FAST TO 1/4SM AND VV002. OTHERWISE NOT A LOT OF FOG. FEW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH...AND WDLY SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE MD BORDER. EXPECT MOST AREAS TO BE VFR BY LATE MORNING AND MOST OF THE DAY TO BE DRY. DRIER AIR NOTED AT MID LVLS ON THE 00Z DETROIT SOUNDING...ALONG WITH A SMALL CAP. THIS SHOULD HELP LIMIT CONVECTION TODAY...GIVEN RATHER HIGH HEIGHTS FOR A CHANGE THIS SUMMER. HIGHEST CHC OF SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG THE MD BORDER. FOR TONIGHT...HAVE SOME FOG IN LATE...ALSO LOWER CIG AT IPT. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AT BFD. COLD FRONT WITH DRYING EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH NW-SE ON TUESDAY WITH TSRA IN THE AFTN/EVENING. MUCH LESS HUMID AIR FOR WED AND THU...SHOULD BE MUCH LESS LOW CLOUD COVER. OUTLOOK... WED-THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSS. OTHERWISE VFR. FRI...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...LA CORTE AVIATION...MARTIN

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