Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 261144 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 644 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A QUIET WEATHER DAY TO THE AREA TODAY AND AGAIN FOR SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE WITH MANY AREAS SEEING HIGHS OVER 50 DEGREES BY SATURDAY. A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING ON INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS BY SUNDAY. COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA AND PRECIPITATION COULD END AS SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA LATER ON SUNDAY. COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS...WHICH WILL FEEL QUITE COLD CONSIDERING HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... STRATOCU REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION ACROSS THE NW HALF OF PA THIS MORNING WITH DRYING AND DOWNSLOPING FLOW HAS PRODUCING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL SEE CLOUDS DIMINISH THIS MORNING WITH MOST AREAS SEEING FULL SUNSHINE AND VERY MILD HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL SEE RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT...BUT EVEN WITH THE LONG NIGHTS AND NEARLY CALM WINDS...LOWS WILL STRUGGLE TO EVEN FALL MUCH BELOW FREEZING IN SOME AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA. QUITE MILD 850 MB TEMPS ON SATURDAY COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN RISE 20+ DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS LATE SAT NIGHT AND ON SUNDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH OF CWA LATE IN THE DAY WITH COLDER AIR ADVECTING IN. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SUN NIGHT AS SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK S STREAM WAVE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT WHICH COULD BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION TO THE SE ZONES SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. WITH 850 TEMPS COOLING A MIX OF R/S IS POSSIBLE IF THIS WAVE DOES INDEED DEVELOP AND TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTH. OTHERWISE WILL SEE COLDER AIR SLOWLY ADVECT INTO THE CWA IN A FEW WAVES NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A RETURN TO TEMPERATURES WE WOULD EXPECT FOR THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER...WHICH WILL FEEL COLD AFTER THE MILD WEATHER WE HAVE SEEN THIS MONTH...BUT REALLY NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY. NO ORGANIZED WEATHER SYSTEMS EXPECTED AS S STREAM ENERGY STAYS SOUTH OF THE STATE. GUIDANCE SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED WEATHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE TRACK UNCERTAIN AT THE TIME GIVEN THAT IT IS STILL OVER A WEEK OUT. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SATELLITE SHOWS WINDS CLEARING EVERYWHERE THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ. BFD...JST AND UNV HAS SEEN LOWL STRATOCU DUE TO THE PRESSING DOWN OF A THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE WHICH DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE FLOW WILL SHIFT AS THE TROUGH LOOKS TO ROTATE THROUGH WITH FRIDAY. THE NEXT CHC OF PRECIP WILL BE SAT NIGHT AS ANOTHER MID- CONTINENT TROUGH AGAIN PULLS SOME GULF MOISTURE UP TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. BUT THE RESULTANT PRECIP AND SEVERITY OF THE AIRMASS CHANGE LOOK LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN WHAT WE JUST WENT THROUGH. HOWEVER...IT WILL END UP COOLING OFF THE TEMPS MORE CERTAINLY THAN THE LATEST ATTEMPT AT RETURNING TO WINTER. OUTLOOK... SAT...VFR. SAT NITE-SUN...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. MON-TUE...MAINLY VFR. PERHAPS MVFR IN SOME LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES...MAINLY NW PA AND FAR SOUTHERN PA. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ROSS NEAR TERM...ROSS SHORT TERM...ROSS LONG TERM...ROSS AVIATION...DANGELO/CERU

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