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000
FXUS61 KCTP 172255
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
655 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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A FEW WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONTS WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING ISOLATED SHOWERS
TONIGHT...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERTSORMS ON TUESDAY.
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEKEND
AS WARM AIR FROM THE CENTRAL STATES MOVES TO THE EAST.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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A PAIR OF WEAK COLD FRONT WERE DRIFTING SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE CWA
THIS EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHRA.

THE SOUTHERN CFRONT NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE AND ACROSS THE FAR
SERN LOWER SUSQ REGION...WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR A FEW TSRA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON /ONE THAT BECAME SEVERE AND PRODUCED A FEW AREAS OF WIND
DAMAGE...FROM LIKELY MICROBURST WINDS BASED ON 88D AND COUNTY EMA
INITIAL ASSESSMENT/. THE SECOND CFRONT WILL STRETCHED EAST/WEST NEAR
INTERSTATE 80 AND HAS JUST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WITH IT ACROSS THE
MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY.

COMFORTABLY DRY SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 50F /ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF PENN
AND SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK/ WILL SPREAD SE AS THE
TWO...AFOREMENTIONED FRONTS BLEND INTO BASICALLY ONE BOUNDARY ACROSS
SOUTHERN PENN OVERNIGHT.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE PROGRESSION OF A SMALL AREA OF TSRA /NOW
ACROSS THE NRN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE/ AS IT PROGRESSES SEWRD TONIGHT
ALONG THE NE EDGE OF HIGHER 925-850 MB THETA-E AIR. ALTHOUGH THESE
STORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE ACROSS FAR WRN PENN...THEY
COULD AFFECT THE LAURELS AS SOME SHRA AFTER 04Z TUESDAY.

ELSEWHERE...VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS...WILL STREAM EAST
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SOME ALTO CU VERY LATE TONIGHT.

ANY BREAK IN RADAR ECHOES ON THE KCCX SCOPE WILL PROBABLY BE ONLY
FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY TONIGHT...AS MORE FORCING SLIDES ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS WILL MEET UP WITH A THIRD CFRONT
/NEAR A KBUF TO KSYR LINE AT 23Z/ TO PRODUCE SCT SHRA LATER TONIGHT
IN THE N/W. WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE CHC RANGE FOR NOW DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR 50F ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS...AND
55-60 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTH.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
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THIS MAIN/THIRD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREK THROUGH THE REGION ON
TUESDAY AND WILL MAKE THE POPS MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD/HIGHER. PWATS
REACH NEAR AN INCH AND A HALF ON TUES...WHICH COULD COMBINE WITH
SLOWLY MOVING CELLS TO MAKE A BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR. BUT FFG VERY
HIGH AND THREAT FOR FLOODING VERY LOW. THIS FRONT...TOO...MAY WASH
OUT AS IT REACHES THE SRN BORDER.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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BROAD TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST U.S. WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER
EARLY IN THE WEEK...THEN BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER FOR MID/LATE WEEK. HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES INCREASE
NOTICEABLY FOR NEXT WEEKEND ALONG WITH DAILY TSTM CHANCES.

AS ONE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES...
ANOTHER FRONT IS PUSHED SOUTHWARD ACROSS CWA TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH BROAD TROUGH OVERHEAD. THIS WILL KEEP
MENTION OF SCT TSTMS IN FORECAST AT LEAST THROUGH TUE EVE.

THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SIGNAL THE BEGINNINGS OF A PATTERN
CHANGE. BEHIND IT FOR WED...WINDS TURN NORTHERLY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH W-E RIDGE AXIS
SETTLING OVER PA ON THURSDAY. WE/LL SEE A FEW CHILLIER
NIGHTS...ESP ACROSS THE NORTH /THE COLDEST BEING WED NIGHT WITH
READINGS DIPPING INTO THE 40S NORTH OF I-80/. TEMPS MILDER ACROSS
THE SOUTH WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL BE TOUGHER TO SCOUR OUT.

AS RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLIP TO THE SE...LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS THU. MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE THU AND FRI...BUT
WEAKENING CAP WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED LATE
DAY TSTMS OVER SOUTHERN HALF.

LARGER RIDGE OVER CENTRAL U.S. BUILDS EASTWARD INTO OHIO VALLEY
THIS WEEKEND. HIGHER TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT EASTWARD
AROUND TOP OF THE RIDGE...ARRIVING IN PA ON SAT AND PERSISTING FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...KICKING OFF DAILY SCT TSTMS /MAINLY NW HALF/. WE/LL
ALSO LIKELY SEE DECAYING MCS/S TRYING TO SLIDE EASTWARD INTO PA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST UNTIL NEXT
FRONT COMES THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
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&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RADAR SHOWING A FEW ISOLATED SHRA AT 22Z ACROSS CENTRAL PA...WHICH
SHOULD DISSIPATE AS BLYR COOLS ARND SUNSET. BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS...CAN/T RULE OUT A BRIEF VSBY REDUCTION EARLY THIS EVENING
AT IPT...MDT OR LNS. HOWEVER...ODDS DON/T FAVOR IT.

A COLD FRONT WORKING SE FROM THE GRT LKS COULD PRODUCE A LATE
NIGHT SHRA OVR NORTHERN PA. HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN
TONIGHT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG AT MDT AND LNS...WHERE RAIN HAS
FALLEN LATE THIS AFTN. MCLEAR SKIES...A LGT WIND AND WET GROUND
ALL FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT AT MDT AND LNS.
HOWEVER...COMPLICATING FACTOR WILL BE EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF CIRRUS
SHIELD LATE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE OVR THE MISS VALLEY.
IF HIGH CLOUDS ARE THICK ENOUGH...THEY COULD PRECLUDE FOG. AT THIS
POINT...WILL TAKE A MIDDLE GROUND FCST OF MVFR VSBYS AT MDT/LNS LATE
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...IFR IS A POSSIBILITY IF CIRRUS REMAINS THIN.

ANY FOG THAT MANAGES TO FORM OVERNIGHT SHOULD BURN OFF WITHIN A
COUPLE HRS AFTER SUNRISE. FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARD SCT
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING DURING TUES AFTN...AS COLD FRONT WORKS SOUTH
ACROSS THE STATE. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDS WILL PREDOMINATE...A BRIEF
VSBY REDUCTION IS POSSIBLE WITH THE SHRA/TSRA.

OUTLOOK...
WED-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SAT...SCT TSRA POSS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO/FITZGERALD