Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 011841 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 241 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY BEFORE UNSETTLED WEATHER MAKES A RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A WEAK LOW INVOF MARTINSBURG WV HAS MOVED ALMOST NOT AT ALL SINCE EARLY MORNING. BETWEEN THE SLOW MOVING LOW AND Q-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD OFF THE COAST...BROAD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS STARTING TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF CAPES BETWEEN 500-1500J INITIATING SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM AROUND SELINSGROVE DOWN TO THE FRANKLIN COUNTY BORDER WITH MARYLAND. BIGGEST THREAT REMAINS LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS IN THE VERY HUMID AIRMASS WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5". HRRR TARGETS THE SERN ZONES...WHERE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS...THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...SO THE WATCH LOOKS WELL PLACED AT THIS TIME. FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF PA IT WILL REMAIN RATHER GLOOMY AND COOL TO START THE FIRST MONTH OF THE TRADITIONAL SUMMER. BROAD TROFFING ALOFT WILL MEAN THAT A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT EVEN OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL REMAIN SERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL FORCING AND DEEPEST INSTABILITY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S OVER THE NW TO AROUND 60 OVER THE SE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
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THE FRONTAL WAVE WILL SETTLE SOUTH AND FINALLY MOVE OFF THE COAST...SO TUESDAY WILL SEE GENERALIZED BUT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT. A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AROUND AND SOUTHERN AREAS COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OR EVEN SOME DRIZZLE...BUT DRIER AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO FILTER DOWN FROM THE NORTH LEAVING ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH MAINLY DRY BY AFTERNOON. IT WILL REMAIN CHILLIER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY AVERAGING IN THE 60S.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... SRN STREAM UPPER TROF WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE TN VALLEY/SE STATES THROUGH THE WEEK. NORTHERN STREAM JET...FLATTENING AMPLITUDE THAN THE SRN STREAM TROF...WILL LAY JUST TO THE NORTH OF PA WITH A COUPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL PUT PA RIGHT IN THE SQUEEZE ZONE BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THE TREND FOR TODAY IS A DECIDEDLY WETTER FORECAST... AS THE SLOW MOVING SRN STREAM TROF MAKES IF DIFFICULT FOR SFC FRONTS TO CLEAR THE REGION. THIS MADE IT HARD NOT TO INCLUDE AT LEAST ISOLATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A DRIER PD IS EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS. WARM TEMPS AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN FROM MID WEEK ONWARD. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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WEAK SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE WILL PUSH SETTLE SEWD ACROSS FAR SERN PA TODAY. IT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THAT IS BEGINNING TO FIRE OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WITH ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. NORTH OF THE LOW AND FRONTAL ZONE...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH ONLY MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP IT MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS SO CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK... TUE...A.M IFR/MVFR CIGS BCMG MVFR/VFR IN THE AFTN. SCT SHRA AND TSTMS FAR SRN/SERN AIRFIELDS. WED...VFR. THU-SAT...REDUCED CONDITIONS PSBL WITH SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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MAY 2015 WAS THE 2ND WARMEST MAY ON RECORD AT HARRISBURG WITH AN AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 68.9 DEGREES. THIS WAS +6.8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND ONLY 0.3 DEGREES AWAY FROM BEING THE WARMEST MAY EVER RECORDED SINCE CLIMATE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1888. THE WARMEST MAY ON RECORD WAS 1991 WITH AN AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 69.1 DEGREES. THERE WERE NO DAILY RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN DURING THE MONTH. MAY 2015 TIED 2012 FOR THE 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD AT WILLIAMSPORT WITH AN AVG. MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 65.9 DEGREES. THIS WAS +6.2 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAY 2015/2012 RANK 5TH BEHIND MAY 1991, 1911, 1918 AND 1944. THERE WERE NO DAILY RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN DURING THE MONTH. SEASONAL SUMMARIES HAVE BEEN PRODUCED AND CAN BE ACCESSED VIA OUR WEBSITE UNDER THE CLIMATE AND PAST WEATHER SECTION.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR PAZ064>066.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER AVIATION...LA CORTE CLIMATE...LA CORTE

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