-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCTP 171903
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
303 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE FRONTS WILL CROSS THE COMMONWEALTH
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS WARM AIR FROM THE
CENTRAL STATES MOVES TO THE EAST.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
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SFC TROUGH/FRONT NOW LIT UP ALONG THE NRN TIER BUT IT IS WORKING
INTO VERY DRY AIR - NEAR 50F DEWPOINTS IN THE CENTRAL MTS. THE
SHOWERS MAY MAKE A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER...BUT THEY ARE
VERTICALLY CHALLENGED WITHOUT MOISTURE TO FUEL THEM AND MAKE THEM
GROW TALL ENOUGH TO GLACIATE AND PRODUCE LIGHTNING. WINDS COULD
GUST INTO THE 30S...BUT NOT LIKELY ANY WORSE. BETTER DEWPOINTS
POOLING UP OVER NERN OH ATTM...AND SH/TSRA THERE CURRENTLY COULD
SLIDE INTO WRN PA LATER THIS EVENING. HEAT AND MUCH BETTER
DEWPOINTS ALONG THE OLDER FRONT OVER THE SRN TIER ALSO FIRING A
FEW SHRA. AGAIN...ISOLD T POSSIBLE...BUT NO WORRY FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THE SHOWERS SHOULD DWINDLE AS THE NIGHT STARTS AND
STABILIZATION OCCURS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER FRONT - THIS ONE WITH REAL
DRY AIR BEHIND IT - LURKS JUST S OF LAKE ONTARIO AT THIS TIME. IT
WILL ALSO ONLY MOVE SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
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ANY BREAK IN RADAR ECHOES ON THE KCCX SCOPE WILL PROBABLY BE ONLY
A FEW HOURS...AS MORE FORCING SLIDES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. THIS WILL MEET UP WITH THE THIRD FRONT TO PRODUCE SCT
SHRA LATER TONIGHT IN THE N/W. WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE CHC RANGE
FOR NOW DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. THIS MAIN/THIRD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREK THROUGH
THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND WILL MAKE THE POPS MUCH MORE
WIDESPREAD/HIGHER. PWATS REACH NEAR AN INCH AND A HALF ON
TUES...WHICH COULD COMBINE WITH SLOWLY MOVING CELLS TO MAKE A
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR. BUT FFG VERY HIGH AND THREAT FOR FLOODING
VERY LOW. THIS FRONT...TOO..MAY WASH OUT AS IT REACHES THE SRN
BORDER.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BROAD TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST U.S. WILL BRING AN UNSETTLED START TO
THE WEEK...BUT RIDGE BUILDING IN STARTING MIDWEEK WILL BRING DRY
AND COOLER WEATHER BEFORE MORE HUMID AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS RETURN
FOR THE WEEKEND.

NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS GLAKES...WHICH WILL KICK THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH AND USHER IN BEGINNING OF A PERIOD OF DRIER
AND COOLER WEATHER.

WE/LL SEE A FEW CHILLIER NIGHTS...ESP ACROSS THE NORTH /THE
COLDEST BEING WED NIGHT WITH READINGS DIPPING INTO THE 40S NORTH
OF I-80/ AS HIGH SETTLES IN. BUT SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW BEGINS
ON THU AS RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS TO OUR EAST. AS LOWER LEVELS BEGIN TO
SLOWLY MOISTEN BACK UP...ISOLATED LATE DAY TSTMS AGAIN BECOME
POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN HALF THU AND ESP FRI.

HEIGHTS RISE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. SURGE OF MOISTURE ALSO GETS
SHUNTED EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. BRINGING A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN THE HEAT AND ESPECIALLY HUMIDITY. TSTM PROBABILITIES
INCREASE SAT...PEAKING ON SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS
THE GLAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING A GRADUAL CHANGE IN AIRMASS
BACK TOWARD DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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FRONT NUMBER 1 IS STILL OVER THE SERN COS AND PROVIDING A FOCUS
FOR SH/TSRA THERE. THESE SHOULD WANE AS THE HEATING WANES...BUT
COULD BRING VISBYS INTO IFR FOR A BRIEF TIME AT LNS/MDT.

ANOTHER FRONT IS DROPPING THRU THE NRN MTS AND SHOULD ARRIVE IN
THE CENTRAL MTS AND MID SUSQ SHORTLY. MUCH BETTER COVERAGE ALONG
THAT FRONT - BUT IT IS MOVING INTO VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER UNV/AOO.
WILL KEEP MENTIONS OF SHOWERS IN FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS UPSTREAM
STORMS OVER NERN OH WILL MOST LIKELY SLIDE INTO WRN PA AS WELL.

MORE FORCING COMES DOWN FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
PAIRS UP WITH YET ANOTHER FRONT - WHICH HAS THE BEST DRYING BEHIND
IT. THIS FRONT IS ALREADY INTO WRN NY STATE BUT NOT MOVING VERY
MUCH AT ALL. WILL THEREFORE BRING THE CHC OF SHOWERS BACK INTO BFD
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING SHOWERS FOR THE
DAYTIME ON TUES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT AND TIMING. BUT
SCT/NMRS SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS THAT REAL DRY AIRMASS
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES AND CALM AIR WILL ALLOW FOG
TO FORM...PERHAPS GOING IFR IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS...ESP THOSE
WHICH PICK UP SOME RAIN TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SAT...SCT TSRA POSS.
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&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO