-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCTP 181209
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
809 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL SLOWLY RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
THROUGH MONDAY. THE WARM FRONT WILL THEN STALL OUT ACROSS UPSTATE
NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND BEFORE SINKING BACK TO THE SOUTH AND
OSCILLATING OVER PENNSYLVANIA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE
FRONT SHOULD FINALLY PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE NEXT WEEK OR
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. OVERALL EXPECT A
PROLONGED STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
UPDATED PACKAGE TO BRING SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS INTO WARREN
COUNTY...GIVEN RADAR RETURNS. DID NOT GO REAL HIGH...GIVEN
LOW DEWPOINTS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

MID/HIGH CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. FILLING UPPER
LOW SLIDING WELL TO OUR SOUTH BUT SLOWING AS IT DOES SO. WEAK SFC
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES WILL ALSO MOVE TO THE EAST.
LIGHT EAST WIND WILL VEER A BIT AND ALLOW MORE MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. SO FAR...NO SIGN OF ANY CLOUDS LESS THAN 6KFT OFF TO OUR
S/E. PREVIOUS FCSTS OF AN INCREASE IN LOWER CLOUDS IS RIGHT
ON...FINDING SUPPORT IN ALL MODELS IN THE NEXT 6-12 HRS. BUT THE
SCHEDULE MAY NEED TO BE HURRIED UP A FEW HOURS IF CURRENT TIMING
FROM MESO MDLS IS RIGHT. THIS THICKENING/LOWERING OF THE CLOUDS
WILL HAVE A DETRIMENTAL EFFECT ON THE TEMPS IN THE SRN MTS AS THE
LOWER CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE/DEVELOP THERE FIRST LATER TODAY. CURRENT
TEMPS M50S-L60S IN THAT AREA...AND IT WILL BE TOUGH TO ADD MUCH
MORE THAN 10-12F ONTO THOSE NUMBERS TODAY. HAVE KEPT MAX TEMP AT
70 OR JUST BELOW FOR PLACES S OF STATE COLLEGE. WILL MENTION JUST
A SPRINKLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS IN THE SE AND NW...BUT THEN DRY
UNTIL THIS AFTN. SUN STILL POSSIBLE IN THE NWRN MTS AND
ELEVATIONS/HEATING WILL MAKE DIURNAL CU AND PERHAPS LOWER
STABILITY ENOUGH TO POP A SHOWER OR TWO. CURRENT 30 DEWPOINTS WILL
BE THE KNOCK ON THAT POSSIBILITY. 20-30 POPS WILL HOLD THERE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SEEMS LIKE A NO-BRAINER TO FCST THICK LOWER CLOUDS TONIGHT OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA...AND THE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CREATE PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH THAT A 100 POP SEEMS OVER
DONE. WILL GO WITH 50-60 POPS IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS AND CENTRAL
MTS. THE NW WILL STAY THE DRIEST AND SEE THE LEAST CLOUD COVERAGE.
SFC/LLVL PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
PERSISTENCE FCST SHOULD BE SOLID. BUT WILL TAPER POPS A BIT EACH
PD DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON PLACEMENT OF THE PATCHY RAIN/SHOWERS.
STILL EXPECTING THAT THE BULK OF ANY DECENT RAIN IN THE SHORT TERM
PD WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE PESKY STATIONARY FRONT.
WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WILL HAVE LITTLE DIURNAL RANGE.

SOME DRYING IS PROGGED SUN NIGHT OR MONDAY AND COULD LEAD TO LOWER
STABILITY MONDAY - AS THE /WARM/ FRONT ATTEMPTS TO PUSH THROUGH
THE LOCAL AREA. THUS...THE CHC OF THUNDER MAKES IT INTO THE FCST
THEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LAST TWO CYCLES OF GLOBAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 500MB PATTERN HOLDING FIRM THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. A COMPRESSED WAVELENGTH BETWEEN PAC NW CLOSED
LOW/HIGH PLAINS RIDGE/UPPER MS VLY CLOSED LOW/TROUGH AND SERN U.S.
RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY WIDEN AND EVOLVE TO A WRN TROUGH/PLAINS
RIDGE/ERN TROUGH CONFIGURATION /ESSENTIALLY A CONUS OMEGA BLOCK/
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IN GENERAL...THE OPRN MDLS AND ENS MEANS
SHOW REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC FEATURES
WITH THE USUAL TIMING/PLACEMENT DIFFS RELATED TO SFC FRONTS AND
QPF - WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED AT THIS RANGE.

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL
BE A RATHER UNSETTLED AND POTENTIALLY VERY WET ONE WITH DAILY
OPPORTUNITIES FOR CONVECTIVE PCPN. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WENT ABOVE CLIMO POPS
USING AN EVEN BLEND OF GFS/EC BASED MOS DATA. TEMPERATURES IN THE
FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD /DAYS 4-5 OR TUE-WED/ SHOULD AVG SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE LATE-MAY CLIMATE NORMALS. THIS WARM SPELL SHOULD BE
FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND IN MAX/MIN FOR DAYS 6 AND 7
THR-FRI (AND LKLY INTO DAY 8/SAT) WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
5-18/12Z...
VFR FLYING WILL CONTINUE TDY WITH BKN-OVC ALTO CU BASES AROUND
7-10KFT AGL. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE VEER TO THE SE THIS
AFTN AND DIRECT INCREASINGLY MOIST/MARITIME AIR INTO THE REGION.
THIS WILL RESULT IN LOWERING CIGS THIS EVE WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
TO IFR CONDS XPCTD TONIGHT THRU MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVG.

A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE AIRSPACE BY TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME MARGINAL
IMPROVEMENT IN LCL FLYING CONDS. A RATHER UNSETTLED AND POTENTIALLY
WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH DAILY CHC/S FOR CONVECTIVE PCPN AND ASSOCD RESTRICTIONS.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...MVFR-IFR CIGS.
TUE-WED...VFR-MVFR WITH SCT PM THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...STEINBUGL