Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 260511 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 111 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE LATE THURSDAY...DRAGGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS IMPACTING MY FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH KBFD CURRENTLY REPORTING 1/4SM FG. EXPECT THIS TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE INCREASING MID CLOUD OVER OHIO ARRIVES TO HELP DISSIPATE IT. TEMPS HOVERING NEAR 32F OVER THE NORTHERN TIER SUGGESTS SOME SLICK SPOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK. CONSALL BLENDED WITH LATEST LAMP/RAP OUTPUT SUGGEST OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S TO L40S OVER MOST OF THE AREA... BUT FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 30S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... LATEST MDL DATA TRACKS SFC LOW NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE DURING THURSDAY. THIS TRACK WILL BRING A COLD RAIN TO THE NW COUNTIES...WHERE GEFS/SREF OUTPUT SUPPORTS 100 PCT POPS. SFC WARM FRONT...WHICH REMAINS HUNG UP WEST OF THE LAURELS THIS EVENING...WILL LIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES...RESULTING IN A MUCH WARMER AND MAINLY DRY LATE AM/EARLY AFTN. ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE...BEST CHC OF RAIN /NR 100 PCT BASED ON ENS DATA/ WILL COME DURING LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING WITH PASSAGE OF TRAILING COLD FRONT. MARGINALLY UNSTABLE SOUNDINGS...COMBINED WITH LG SCALE FORCING IN ADVANCE OF MID LVL SHORTWAVE...COULD SUPPORT A FEW TSRA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVENING. AS LOW EXITS THE AREA...MDL SOUNDINGS BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO LGT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS BY THU EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH...RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE ALLEGHENIES SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP ENDING AS -SHSN ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT ACCUM OF LESS THAN AN INCH APPEARS LIKELY THU NIGHT FROM THE NW MTNS SOUTH ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES TO SOMERSET CO. THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS SPRING OVER SOUTHERN PA...WITH 18Z CONSALL MAXES IN THE 65-70F RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS NEAR THE MD BORDER. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX TO GROUND LVL IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS NR 30KTS ACROSS THE S TIER DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... DEEPENING BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY AS THE PUSH OF THE UPPER TROF HAS SLOWED A BIT IN RECENT GUIDANCE. AT THE SFC...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION STARTING LATER FRIDAY WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO THE WEEKEND. THE DEEPNESS OF THIS UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS WED AND THUR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTOMONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A N-S ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SLID INTO WESTERN PA WILL NOT MOVE MUCH OVERNIGHT. THE EVENING WILL BRING VARYING CONDITIONS... RANGING FROM IFR ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS TO MVFR AT EASTERN TERMINALS TO VFR ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SW. THOUGH MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION...THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL HOLD TOUGH - AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES LEADING TO WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS BY SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT KIPT THIS EVE...BUT OVERALL WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE 10 MPH OR LESS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR THE RIDGETOPS. A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE /OVER OKLA WED EVE/ WILL TRACK ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE LATE THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE STATE. NEAR TERM MODEL DATA INDICATES A CHC OF SHOWERS ARRIVING ARND 12Z /ESP OVR THE W MTNS/ UPON APPROACH OF LL JET AND ASSOC ISENTROPIC LIFT. MOST PERSISTENT RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH MIDDAY OVER THE NW...WITH SHOWERS AND EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A TSTM AROUND KMDT-KLNS. WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS START THE DAY...WITH CIGS LIFTING A BIT IN THE CENTRAL AND SE MID-LATE MORNING AS RAIN ARRIVES. WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH BY MIDDAY...WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 MPH COMMON ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF AS GUSTS APPROACH 30 MPH. COLDER AIR SLIDES IN BEHIND COLD FRONT THU EVE AS WINDS TURN TO THE NW AND DIMINISH. LIGHT RAIN WILL REMAIN LIKELY IN THE SE...BUT PRECIP CHANGES OVER TO SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE NW HALF /REDUCING VSBYS AND CIGS/. OUTLOOK... THU NGT...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE NW AIRSPACE WITH IFR AND MVFR OVER THE WRN 1/3. MVFR TO VFR CENTRAL AND EAST. FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA. SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR. MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS NW HALF WITH MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER AVIATION...RXR

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