Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 200902 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 502 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Cooler and slightly drier air is moving in for a couple of days. An upper level trough will approach the region later this week and draw a plume of deep tropical moisture north from the Gulf Coast region. This will bring showers and thunderstorms back to the state for at least Friday into early Saturday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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The plume of high PWAT air that brought several days of heat and mugginess to the commonwealth is headed off the Mid Atlantic Coast with a cold front early today. A few sfc and upper level troughs dropping SE from the Glakes region will bring some isolated to scattered showers to the NW mtns this afternoon and evening as mid-level lapse rates increase to 6-6.5C/km under the southern edge of very cool air aloft - near 0C at 700 mb, and around -15C at 500 mb. ML cape climbs to svrl hundred j/kg in some locations, so there is a minimal chc for a few TSRA over the NW mtns. Elsewhere to the SE across the Ridge and Valley region, Laurel Highlands and Susq Valley, temps aloft will be notably milder and the air drier, so there will be less than 10 percent POPs there with skies mainly SCT, but going bkn ocnly this afternoon with MDT Cu clouds. After a morning low ranging from the mid 50s across the northern mtns with patchy dense valley fog, to the mid and upper 60s in the SE, we`ll see fairly cool late June max temps of only the u60s to l70s across the NW mtns and Laurels, with near normal temps in the u70s to low 80s elsewhere.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
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Some lingering bkn-ovc strato cu, and isolated-sctd showers will be drifting east across the NW mtns this evening, while skies go clear to ptly cloudy across the remainder of Central and SE PA. Light SW wind tonight and rather strong radiational cooling will bring some areas of valley fog once again across the northern mtns, and perhaps speckled throughout the central valleys as well. Mins shortly after sunrise Wed will vary from the chilly L50s near and to the east of KBFD, to the u50s and l60s throughout the Susq Valley.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Still looks like a strong push of warm and humid air from the SW and West for later Thursday into Friday, with the next chc for showers and isolated-scattered tsra will come Friday afternoon into saturday morning. The best chc to see a period of mdtly heavy rain will be across the western and southern counties of the state. The cold front helping to trigger the showers and isolated-scattered TSRA drops just to the south of PA Saturday afternoon and night and becomes quasi-stnry and washes-out as the shortwave energy support it races away across New England and a deepening trough moves from the Northern Rockies to the Midwest states as the deep layer zonal flow backs to the SW. It gets quite difficult to push cold fronts much further south now, as we head into summer. EC and other models show a rather strong low for late June tracking across the Great Lakes on Sunday. Another round of showers and storms. Rather strong cold advection for next Monday. Will have to watch the Golf of Mexico to see if moisture will be pulled northward later in the week ahead of any of the fast moving lows tracking across the lakes. Overall just minor changes made to the extended package.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Any thunder has faded, though flow has shifted and light rain should continue for most TAF sites for the next few hours. Expect periods of showers through 08Z. LNS has already dropped to IFR cigs, expect that trend to continue for MDT as well. The low dewpoint depressions and calming winds at BFD and IPT should allow for IFR vsbys along with CIGS as well. The rainfall should further the likelihood of IFR cigs at JST and MVFR to IFR cigs at UNV and AOO. Restrictions should improve by late morning and then should be VFR on Tuesday with some scattered showers in the mountains from KJST to KBFD in the afternoon. .OUTLOOK... Tue...Sct SHRA...mainly NW. Wed...Mainly dry with VFR conditions. Thu...Sct SHRA and storms...mainly N. Fri...Sct showers and thunderstorms. Sat...Mainly VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lambert NEAR TERM...Lambert SHORT TERM...Lambert LONG TERM...Lambert/Martin AVIATION...Ceru/Martin

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