Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 041958 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 358 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA ON SUNDAY. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO PENNSYLVANIA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... ADDED SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWEST...GIVEN CURRENT RADAR. ALSO STORMS SOUTH OF THE MD BORDER...AN INTERESTING WEATHER PATTERN. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. VIZ SATELLITE SHOWS A TIDY SWIRL OFF THE DELMARVA COAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW THAT IS SPEEDING ALMOST DUE EAST OFF THE COAST. THE LARGER RAIN SHIELD HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA LEAVING WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE. SHORT RANGE HIGH RES GUIDANCE INDICATES THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AND THE CHANCE FOR A POP UP SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED ENOUGH TO NOT POSE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO EVENING COOKOUTS OR FIREWORKS DISPLAYS. IT WILL REMAIN ON THE CHILLY SIDE HOWEVER WITH LITTLE HOPE FOR WARMING COMING FROM ANYTHING OTHER THAN WHATEVER PARTIAL SUNSHINE WE MAY BE ABLE TO MUSTER AS THE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING CENTERED OVER PENN ON SUNDAY. A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN EARLIER TODAY...DRYING ALOFT ON TOP OF LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOK TO BE PRIME INGREDIENTS FOR FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. THE FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE EARLY SUNDAY. LOWS EARLY SUNDAY WILL VARY FROM THE CHILLY MID-UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SCENT MTNS AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... AFTER THE EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...SUNDAY SHOULD BE GORGEOUS WITH LIGHT WINDS...BRIGHT SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO WHAT NORMAL IS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO THE LONGER TERM GRIDS. INTERESTING FOURTH OF JULY HERE...ONE CAN SEE A NICE CIRCULATION CENTER OFF THE COAST NOW...SEE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP. SOME SPOTS HAD OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING...SEE PNS. ANYWAY...STILL LOOKING A NICE DAY ON SUNDAY. SOME HIGH CLDS WILL WORK IN LATE...WITH SOME CHANCE OF A SHOWER BY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SW. MOST LIKELY THERE WILL BE SOME SMOKE ALOFT AGAIN. THIS WAS THE CASE AT TIMES THIS PAST WEEK. CAN SEE SOME SMOKE ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP TODAY. DID UP TEMPS SOME MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTH. ALSO DID UP POPS UP SOME LATE MONDAY INTO TUE. MODELS STILL WANT TO BRING MOISTURE BACK TO THE NORTH LATER IN THE DAY. HIGHEST POPS LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUE. COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES MAY JUST FALL APART LATER IN THE WEEK. CLUE TO FCST MAY BE THE 00Z 7/4 EC RUN. THIS RUN SHOWS FLATTER FLOW AT 500 MB LATER IN THE WEEK...COMPARED TO THE 7/3 12Z EC RUN AND OTHER MODELS. MAIN CHANGE FOR NOW WAS TO EDGE POPS DOWN LATER IN THE WEEK...EDGE MAX TEMPS UP SOME...AND LOWER MIN TEMPS SOME. DID NOT WANT TO GO TOO HIGH WITH POPS...MODELS MAY HAVE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES. AT THE SAME TIME...HAVE TO LOOK AT HOW MUCH RAIN WE GOT EARLIER TODAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM. HOPE ALL HAVE A GOOD FOURTH OF JULY. WAS ON THE COOL SIDE LAST 4TH OF JULY...BUT DRY AND SUNNY. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE MID ATL COAST ALLOWING FOR SOME SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN SPOTS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW AS PROJECTED BY THE HRRR. LOOK FOR CEILINGS TO IMPROVE AND START TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY THIS WILL LEAD TO FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND AN ALMOST CLASSIC SETUP FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY. SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE VFR FLYING ONCE THE MORNING FOG/HZ BURNS OFF. OUTLOOK... MON-THU...VFR/MVFR WITH ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS/PM TSTMS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/MARTIN SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...MARTIN AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN

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