-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCTP 180001
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
801 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
MARYLAND BORDER TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY PUSH
BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND...AND LIFT
NORTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
WILL PREVAIL ON TUE INTO WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SHORT RANGE HIGH RES MODELS ARE NOW DOWNPLAYING THE CHANCES FOR
RAIN WHICH THEY HAD EARLIER OVER OUR SWRN ZONES. HAVE BASICALLY
DROPPED THE MENTION OF RAIN...WHICH WEREN`T HIGH TO BEGIN WITH AND
HAVE KEPT THE OVERNIGHT DRY ACROSS ALL ZONES.

IF WE DO SEE ANY KIND OF PRECIP IT LOOKS TO BE LATE AND OVER SRN
AREAS AS THE SFC HIGH SLIPS OFFSHORE AND WE START TO DEVELOP A LOW
LEVEL SE FLOW OF INCREASING MOISTURE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN NORMAL BY SOME 3-5 DEG ON
AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF A SHOWER WILL LAST INTO THE NIGHT OVER SRN
BORDER. THE DEGREE OF INFLUENCE THE FILLING UPPER LOW COMING OUT
OF THE PLAINS WILL HAVE IS A TOUGH CALL. HOWEVER...GENERAL MDL
PREFERENCE IS TO KEEP THE BULK OF THE SHRA S OF THE STATE.
CERTAINLY THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN UP AND COULD HELP KEEP
TEMPS MILDER TONIGHT THAN THIS MORNING...WITH MINS IN THE N IN THE
M/U40S AND M50S. EXPECT LITTLE/NO WIND TONIGHT OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE WRN MTS FARTHER FROM THE AXIS OF THE
WEAKENING SFC RIDGE. THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN DOES BECOME MORE
E/SERLY LATER TONIGHT AND CERTAINLY DURING THE DAY ON SAT. THE
MID/HIGH CLOUDS COULD KEEP MAXES DOWN IN THE L70S FOR MOST AREAS.
HOWEVER...HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO POP A FEW CU AGAIN ON
SAT...ESP OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE MOISTURE FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL START TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS AND WILL START TO BUILD UP LATER SAT NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD KEEP MINS MILD. WILL ALSO KEEP THE LOW CHC FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN AS THE MARITIME MSTR CLIMBS UPHILL SAT NIGHT...WITH HIGHER
30-40 POPS S AND SLIGHT CHC N.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SE FLOW WILL KEEP THE RISK OF LOWER CLDS AND A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

LESS CHC OF SHOWERS MONDAY INTO TUE...AS THE WINDS SHIFT MORE
TO THE SW...AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA.

WARMER TEMPS WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA TUE INTO WED.

HPC HAS FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD ON WED...NOT ALL THAT CLEAR CUT.
FOR WED...DID UP POPS SOME...BUT LEFT TEMPS UP.

COMPLEX SITUATION FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...AS WE HEAD INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A LOT OF SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS THE LAST
FEW DAYS.

FOR NOW...DID NOT RUSH CLEARING TOO MUCH BEFORE NEXT FRIDAY.
EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THU NIGHT...AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD...AND LOW TRIES TO CLOSE OFF. GUSTY
NE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS BY
FRIDAY...AS THE SOURCE REGION OF THE AIR WILL BE CENTRAL
CANADA...AS WAS THE CASE EARLIER THIS WEEK. A LOT DIFFERENT
THAN LAST YEAR...WHEN WE HAD HOT TEMPERATURES AND EVEN SOME
STRONG STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE OVER UPSTATE NY LATE THIS AFTN WILL DRIFT EAST AND
OFF THE NEW ENG COAST ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A NEAR
CERTAINTY OF VFR CONDS AND LGT WINDS TONIGHT.

AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SE FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL
LIKELY CAUSE STRATO-CU TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY
AFTN. MDL SOUNDINGS AND SREF DATA SUGGEST CIGS WILL LIKELY DROP
TO MVFR BY EARLY EVENING ALONG THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS FROM UNV SOUTH THRU AOO AND JST.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT...IFR CIGS BECOMING LKLY OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS.
SUN...LOW CIGS/DZ...ESP IN THE MORNING.
MON...AM LOW CIGS POSSIBLE.
TUE-WED...SCT THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS...MAINLY PM.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/GARTNER/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...FITZGERALD